Anyone, but me think that the president will pull it out in Florida?

[stegosaurus]

a) Obama's support among Jewish voters in South Florida is going to be weak. I would expect lower than usual turnout for this demographic.

b) Unlike most other swing states, the Republicans hold close with the Democrats in Party ID. In 2008, the breakdown was Democrat (37%) Republican (34%) Independent (29%)*. The enthusiasm is on the GOP's side, the make-up of partisans is going to reflect that. Assuming that Romney is winning Independents handily, by 5-10%, I don't see Obama pulling it out.

Or simply put: The President won Florida by 2 points in 2008 winning independents by 7 points and with 12% of the GOP vote. This is NOT happening.

* source: cnn exit poll 2008: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#FLP00p1

[stegosaurus]

I honestly don't know. This is one of a very few states that's holding off my final prediction until the end. I have almost bipolar feelings on the state.

I agree - I was CERTAIN Florida was gone a couple of weeks ago, but I've laminated it under 'ugh I don't know'!

Also, where is this evidence that Obama's weak among Jews?

http://www2.tbo.com/news/politics/2012/oct/25/jewish-vote-likely-pivotal-in-florida-ar-543603/

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As they demonstrate, it doesn't take much of a shift among this demographic to create a problem for Obama.