Romney Landslide

[stegosaurus]

Romney 54% - 317
Obama 45% - 221
Other 1%

Should there be a catalyst for major economic decline, this is the best possible map for Romney...not exactly a landslide, but decisive. It would certainly make a small wave out of the down ballot races.

[stegosaurus]

With the economic slow down accelerating, rising unemployment, rising food prices, rising gas prices, and Iran detonating a nuclear device, Romney could pull out a 10 pt win:
Romney 54.5%
Obama  44.5%
Others   1%
Obama is currently ahead nationally by 1.5% (RealClear Average), to lose by 10 that would be a shift towards Romney by 11.5%.  Applying a 11.5% shift to the current state poll averages at RealClear:
Romney 386 EV
Obama  152 EV

If Iran were to detonate a nuclear device, national security would instantly become a top issue and Obama's edge on the defense issue is substantial. National security crises historically benefit incumbent Presidents, especially when their opponents lack foreign policy credentials.

Long story short: If the primary issue of this election is foreign policy, then Romney loses big.