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Author Topic: future electoral map?  (Read 10558 times)
danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


« on: November 15, 2004, 01:43:43 AM »

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.
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danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2004, 12:07:07 AM »

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.

It does around here, pal.

Okay. It doesn't around Philly. That was my point.
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danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2004, 12:14:50 AM »

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.

It does around here, pal.

Okay. It doesn't around Philly. That was my point.

OK.  Same with frickin' San Francisco bay, Seattle, Boston, Broward/Palm Beach Co., etc., etc.  Chicagoland and Milwaukee are very unique though that the burbs, esp. the growing ones, are heavily republican while the city and some inner burbs are heavily democrat.

So what the hell are you arguing with me for?
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danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2004, 12:20:54 AM »

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.

It does around here, pal.

Okay. It doesn't around Philly. That was my point.

OK.  Same with frickin' San Francisco bay, Seattle, Boston, Broward/Palm Beach Co., etc., etc.  Chicagoland and Milwaukee are very unique though that the burbs, esp. the growing ones, are heavily republican while the city and some inner burbs are heavily democrat.

So what the hell are you arguing with me for?

I ended the argument with OK, i don't know about you.  I'm just providing more examples of demorcatic suburbs and enhancing the fact that Chicago's suburbs are growing which I believe is helping the GOP very slightly in IL.  As Al Gore would say, "You don't have to get snippy about it!"

Right. So we agree. Some suburbs are trending Democrat, others are trending Republican. Wow, sometimes you are dense.  Smiley
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danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2004, 12:31:40 AM »

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.

It does around here, pal.

Okay. It doesn't around Philly. That was my point.

OK.  Same with frickin' San Francisco bay, Seattle, Boston, Broward/Palm Beach Co., etc., etc.  Chicagoland and Milwaukee are very unique though that the burbs, esp. the growing ones, are heavily republican while the city and some inner burbs are heavily democrat.

So what the hell are you arguing with me for?

I ended the argument with OK, i don't know about you.  I'm just providing more examples of demorcatic suburbs and enhancing the fact that Chicago's suburbs are growing which I believe is helping the GOP very slightly in IL.  As Al Gore would say, "You don't have to get snippy about it!"

Right. So we agree. Some suburbs are trending Democrat, others are trending Republican. Wow, sometimes you are dense.  Smiley

You just took my elaboration the wrong way. 

No....You just elaborated on the same thing we had already decided was a fact. BTW, you are dense AND complicated. But we are not married. Enough.
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danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2004, 12:51:26 AM »

"in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup."

Actually that is wrong, the Chicago suburbs are leaning more and more Democratic, in DuPage County one of the supposed GOP strongholds Bush only got 54% of the vote.  It used to be that it was unheard of for a GOP presidential candidate to get less than 60% of the vote in DuPage, the only times since 1952 that was not the case was in 1992 and 1996 (because of Perot no doubt) and 2000. The other collar counties which lean GOP were also in the low 50% range, Bush barely carried Lake and Will Counties. 

Actually, I doubt IL will change much.  If anything, yes it will swing slightly GOP.  The GOP will continue to gain votes in growth-heavy McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Boone, Kendall, Grundy, LaSalle, Will, and Kankakee, even a few in Lake (but overall Lake won't change much), while losing more and more votes in Cook and DuPage.  We'll also have to watch for Rockford, Peoria, Champaign and see how these toss-up counties change.  It all depends on growth.  Little growth is likely in democratic heavy E. St. Louis or Rock Island-Moline.  However, the GOP is gaining in democratic Madison Co., thanks to growth in the Metro East suburbs (Collinsville, Edwardsville, Glen Carbon, etc.)

Suburban growth does *not* always favor Republicans, my friend.

It does around here, pal.

Okay. It doesn't around Philly. That was my point.

OK.  Same with frickin' San Francisco bay, Seattle, Boston, Broward/Palm Beach Co., etc., etc.  Chicagoland and Milwaukee are very unique though that the burbs, esp. the growing ones, are heavily republican while the city and some inner burbs are heavily democrat.

So what the hell are you arguing with me for?

I ended the argument with OK, i don't know about you.  I'm just providing more examples of demorcatic suburbs and enhancing the fact that Chicago's suburbs are growing which I believe is helping the GOP very slightly in IL.  As Al Gore would say, "You don't have to get snippy about it!"

Right. So we agree. Some suburbs are trending Democrat, others are trending Republican. Wow, sometimes you are dense.  Smiley

You just took my elaboration the wrong way. 

No....You just elaborated on the same thing we had already decided was a fact. BTW, you are dense AND complicated. But we are not married. Enough.

Wow, more namecalling..."dense and complicated".  So, "dense" in the context of unintelligent and "complicated" in the context of difficult to understand.  I guess, it's either namecalling or arguing with you.  Excuse me for elaborating.

No, it's just that you go on and on and on. You're more long-winded then John Kerry talking about Iraq. So with that this is over. Have a good night.
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