Evidence of collapse. If Trump really had a chance following a narrow win of the Electoral College he would be keeping some of his bare losses of 2016 close... and he is not. A re-election would likely involve him trading off a bare win of 2016 for a bare loss of 2016 (basically the battleground states of one election remain close)... but that isn't happening. His bare wins include two states sharply swinging against him (Pennsylvania and Michigan). Think of the difference between 2000 and 2004; Dubya got a genuine improvement in his margins in states that he barely lost -- enough to win Iowa and New Mexico), got big improvements in some competitive states of 2000, and lost only one of his wins of 2000 (New Hampshire). Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire seem to be spiraling away from him.
Trump got away with much for a long time, and he has seemed lucky. People can confuse luck with competence, but luck is not a tangible quality of a person. Gambling casinos profit off that confusion, if you want an analogy. (If you really are good at gambling, as by counting cards, you will be told to leave the casino and not come back unless to play the slots or dice games which are pure chance. I assume that my 'luck' is at best average.
President Trump will take the hit for high unemployment. Any recovery will get recognition only after the 2020 election. He has botched the response to a natural disaster, state governors of the other Party getting ahead of him on shutting down activities likely to spread the disease and some state governors of his own Party breaking with him. People are taking an economic hit so that they greatly reduce their chances of dying of a respiratory infection.
And Trump gets tied to a suggestion that people can ingest or inject bleach or Lysol (R) to clean out the virus internally? (All antibiotics are in fact poisons, and they work by poisoning bacteria, yeasts, or fungi more than they poison us; they do not work against viruses that as a rule are less delicate than we are). No, I say to any fools... you wipe surfaces with bleach or Lysol (R) to surfaces that could contain the viruses or opportunistic bacteria, as I do with my steering wheel, computer keyboards, computer mouse, TV remote, and food containers brought in from the grocery store.
(The only people that I can imagine injecting bleach or Lysol (R) are IV drug users who get excited about getting the Ultimate High... and the pitch of some pushers is that that Ultimate High might kill the druggie. Entities such as the makers of Clorox (R) and Lysol (R) do not want that business. People who do so might get posthumous recognition in the Darwin Awards for killing themselves in a particularly creative act of catastrophic stupidity).
But back to the point: Trump has never been in a position in which he could lose much from 2016 and still win re-election, as was so with Dubya in 2004. Dubya was behind, but he was gaining, and he was in a good position to exploit gaffes of John Kerry. Dubya won -- barely.
Sound analysis. Trump’s electoral count continues to shrink.
