Fall of the House of Kerry

[NHI]

BAYH WINS AGAIN

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Evan Bayh: 25.3%
Brian Schweitzer: 24.5%
Kathleen Sebelius: 23.9%
Howard Dean: 15.0%
Barack Obama: 10.2%
Other: 1.0%

Bayh topped the New Hampshire Primary, becoming the first candidate in either party to win both the first contests. While an important win in terms of establishing momentum and diminishing other candidates, both wins were narrow, continuing the narrative that the field was weak and Bayh was the best of a bad situation. Bayh, was not the most inspiring person on the stump, with some even describing him as dull. Still Bayh was the most successful candidate in the bunch, having won two of the primaries.

In the wake of his New Hampshire lost Howard Dean dropped out. His dismal third place showing signaled the death nail for his political coffin and he exited, but did not endorse, saying he would wait until the dust settled. Brian Schweitzer's strong showing in New Hampshire had the media proclaiming him the 'come from behind kid'. His folksy appearance and down to earth nature attracted independents and Democrats to his campaign and some believed if he had another few days in New Hampshire he would have won the primary.

Still, he pressed on campaigning in the ever important Nevada Caucuses. Bayh's numbers received a boost after New Hampshire, but the state looked favorable to either Sebelius or Schweitzer, with Obama focusing heavily on South Carolina, Bayh moved to Florida, where he believed a big win would cement him as the frontrunner and clear the field for the nomination.

In Nevada Sebelius and Schweitzer battled it out with Sebelius ultimately being declared the victory. She won the caucuses with a meager 32 percent of the vote, while Schweitzer took 29 percent. Obama did better than expected taking 19 percent of the vote, along with Bayh who alsot won roughly 19 percent.

Obama Stumps in South Carolina

Obama spent the longest of any of the candidates in South Carolina and the most money. He was crushed in Iowa and forgotten about in New Hampshire. He bet the farm on South Carolina to turn around his campaign, but already the handwriting on the wall seemed to suggest he was too late. Even with a win, the momentum was growing for Bayh and with Sebelius charging forward after a win in Nevada Obama seemed to be the odd man out. Ultimately, he won the South Carolina primary, but Sebelius made it closer.

Going into the Illinois Senator believed he would win by five to eight points, but only won by three. The media hailed Obama for his win but it did little to change the dynamics of the race. His campaigning was not sinking -- it had practically sunk.

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Barack Obama: 32.0%

Kathleen Sebelius: 29.0%
Evan Bahy: 26.9%
Brian Schweitzer: 11.1%

If things looked bad for Obama, they weren't looking much better for Evan Bayh. Heading into the Florida primary, Bayh looked to close the deal once and for all, but just before the primary the Iowa Democratic Party certified the results of the caucuses and as it turned out Bayh was not the winner of the primary after all -- Sebelius was. She would top him by 21 votes.

The surprise shift slightly altered the race and stalled Bayh's momentum, allowing Sebelius to charge forward like a freight train into Florida and narrowly carry, but still win the primary.

FLORIDA PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Kathleen Sebelius: 38.7%
Evan Bayh: 35.9%
Barack Obama: 17.0%
Brian Schweitzer: 7.4%

SEBELIUS ALL THE WAY

After her win in Florida, the nomination was practically Sebelius. The former Vice Presidential candidate and Governor of Kansas faced no challenge from Obama or Schweitzer who faded into obscurity as the primary wore on. Obama would drop out before Super Tuesday and endorse Sebelius, while Schweitzer remained in the race, but never a serious threat or consideration. Bayh fought hard and won a few caucuses and primaries along the way, but suffered a bruising defeat on Super Tuesday only winning one primary; neighboring Ohio.

He would remain in the race for a few more weeks, especially after winning Illinois, and later in April the New York primary by a large margin than expected (53% - 45%), but he lost the Pennsylvania Primary the same day (51% - 47%) and with Sebelius holding a huge lead in delegates and funding Bayh called it quits after losing the Texas primary. He endorsed Sebelius at a rally before the California Primary, calling on all Democrats to unite.

In a field so divided and uninspiring, Kathleen Sebelius, the unexpected nominee became the first woman to top a major party ticket. The primary ended the focus shifted to the general election. President Romney sat on a lead in the polls and a recovering American economy. The odds were against Sebelius, even given her historic candidacy.

√ Kathleen Sebelius: 9,221,046 (47.3%)
Evan Bayh: 6,566,333 (33.7%)
Brian Schweitzer: 1,947,766 (10.0%)
Barack Obama: 1,094,111 (5.6%)

Other: 678,999 (3.4%)

(R) Mitt Romney: 49%
Kathleen Sebelius: 44%

[NHI]

The Democratic Ticket: Sebelius-Obama

Kathleen Sebelius made history by tapping Barack Obama to be her running mate, cementing the historical nature of their ticket. The first woman and first African-American.

Republicans Waste No Time!

President Mitt Romney and Vice President Tim Pawlenty wasted no time in criticizing the ticket. "Kathleen Sebelius and Barack Obama represent the failed policies that got us into the Great Recession. We don't want to go in reverse! In American we keep moving forward."

GENERAL ELECTION POLL: AUGUST 2012

Mitt Romney: 48%
Sebelius: 45%

The Democratic ticket energized Democrats as they came together for their convention in Charlotte, NC. The Obama pick was seen as a shrewd move by Sebelius who faced an uphill battle against Romney. With the economy recovering, Democrats had a difficult time developing a message that would aid them in the election. Democrats hoped that the historic significance of their ticket would be enough to put them over the top.

Romney: 238
Seblius: 206

[NHI]

SEBELIUS MAKES HISTORY

Accepting her party's nomination in Charlotte on Thursday night, Kathleen Sebelius made history -- by becoming the first woman to lead a major party ticket as President of the United States. Sebelius, acknowledged the historic nature of his candidacy, by saying "Americans are ready to break the glass ceiling once and for all and more importantly to turn the page on Mitt Romney as President of the United States." Sebelius went after Romney as a champion of rich and a scrooge to to the poor. "He favors helping his buddies on Wall Street and K Street, while middle class Americans get the shaft...the President says Wall Street is doing fine, the economy is recovering... well take a look around you Mitt. Things may look nice and rosy from the White House or from one of you many mansions across the country, but to the average folks things could be a lot better."

Sebelius was praised for the delivery of her speech and while she offered very little specifics over what she would do as President, she was successful in taking the right straight to the President, illustrating to the White House that it would be a fight after all. "An America where we all succeed, with rising incomes, lowering debt and renewed hopes is an America we all want to be apart of it and I ask for you help in helping to build it." 

Gallup Tracking Poll: August 2012

Romney: 49% (+3)
Kathleen Sebelius: 46%

P.P.P. Poll: August 2012

Sebelius: 48% (+1)
Romney: 47%

NBC/WSJ Poll: August 2012

Sebelius: 48% (+2)
Romney: 46%

Rassmussen: August 2012

Romney: 48% (+1)

Sebelius: 47%

ABC/WASH POST: Poll August 2012

Sebelius: 48%

Romney: 48%

Average: August 2012

Romney: 47.6% (+0.2)

Sebelius: 47.4%

[NHI]

MITT HAPPENS

Mitt Romney used his convention stage not to attack Kathleen Sebelius, but instead to speak on his Administration's accomplishments and on his vision for the country. A few short days after the DNC and before the start of the RNC Mitt Romney had announced to the nation and to the world that the United States had successfully found and destroyed Bin Laden. The news caused Romney's approval ratings to skyrocket, hitting an upwards of 64 percent. Democrats were largely silent on the issue, up until that moment a major talking point had been that Mitt Romney had yet to defeat Bin Laden and was only partially drawing down forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. One major talking point was gone. Republicans came into their convention energized and excited, but Romney was calm and collected, stressing a renewed patriotism, that the death was not a Republican victory, or a Democratic failure, but an American triumphant over evil, and a reaffirming as he put it, "We will never relent. We will never halt and in the end we will succeed...and to those who are willingly to bet on our decline or loss of status let me assert my belief: That's a bet we as Americans are willingly to take because we'll beat you every time!"

In his acceptance speech Romney cited a resurgent auto industry and a climbing stock market. He cited the issues of unemployment and while he shifted some blame to the Democratic Congress for the gridlock and for failing to pass comprehensive healthcare reform, he seemed to channel FDR when he said, "I'm going to keep trying. I'm going to keep working, because my priority from day one has been to put Americans back to work."

In his closing remarks Romney sounded a patriotic and optimistic tone, in what some pundits described as 'reaching for his own Morning in America moment' "We Republicans believe with all our hearts that America does not have to settle for second best. We do not have to compromise our principles and values we have been the bedrock of this great nation since our founding. We believe that our future is brighter than our past. We love this country. We believe in America, and if you are willing to stay the course we've been on and continue to work with me I have no doubt in our mind we will do as our founders described of creating a more perfect union!"

 In the wake after the Bin Laden news Romney's poll numbers jumped five points and now after the convention he was holding a commanding lead in the polls. There existed the chance that despite shortcomings Americans would rally around Mitt Romney in a come together moment and reelect him, forcing Sebelius and the Democrats to change strategy -- the question was what was their strategy, what would the campaign theme be?

Mitt Romney: 51% (+9)
Kathleen Sebelius: 42%

Undecided: 7%

Republicans were jubilant coming out of their convention, with some pundits, namely Karl Rove predicting a Reagan-esque Landslide for Romney. "He gets easily fifty-five percent of the vote and certainly close to four hundred electoral votes and probably over." Even some more moderate sources were predicting a big Romney victory, still Nate Silver was sober in his approach and considered the improving, but still soft economy as a factors to consider, and while he was leaning towards a Romney victory, he was not comfortable let to declare a sweep.

[/

"I'm analyzing trends, state voting history and candidate preferences up until this point. Certainly Mitt Romney is in a better position than Kathleen Sebelius, but it's note quite a landslide that people are expecting or even some are predicting."

[NHI]

Romney Refuses to be Knocked Down

Kathleen Sebelius came to Denver for her debate with President Romney, ready for a fight, but the Democrat found a formidable debater in Romney. For each point Sebelius leveled at the President, he swatted it down and pivoted to talking about the economy and job growth. Sebelius was criticized for being overly aggressive in her debate, and while some, (namely DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz) thought it was an unfair comment and that Sebelius was being put down for being a woman, polls indicated Romney the clear favorite and winner of the debate.

For Sebelius the debates were the needed game changer. In the final weeks of the campaign she trailed Romney nationally by anywhere from 8 to even 10 points in some polls and was down in the swing states. Even her home state of Kansas, which at the time of the convention was seen as a possible swing was favoring Romney 57 to 41.

Obama 2016?

Obama, for his part did a superb job in his debate against  Vice President Tim Pawlenty. The Vice President appeared stiff and uninspiring was Obama came prepared and was engaging. Pawlenty looked as though he couldn't wait for the debate to be over, and Obama looked ready for it to last. Democrats praised the VP nominee of doing a better job selling the Democratic ticket and Democratic policies than Kathleen Seblius did in her three debates with the President. Obama walked away with favorite and left many Democrats wondering where this Obama was during the primary.

Hurricane Sandy

In the final swing before the Presidential election, Hurricane Sandy devastated the east coast, specifically New Jersey, causing a pause in the campaign and highlighting Romney as he toured the devastation with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, (who's leadership in the crisis raised his profile as a potential Presidential candidate down the line). In the wake of the storm Sebelius' campaign was stalled and could only watch as event shaped her and the election.

In the waning hours of the campaign all the polls not only suggested but outright showed Romney pulling away with a victory on November 6th and Sebelius being left in the dust. The historic nature of her candidacy forgotten and overshadowed by world events and a lackluster campaign. She closed with a final rally in Iowa, before returning to Kansas to await the votes.

[NHI]

Catching a wave is one thing, but seeing how big the wave is something else. The foregone conclusion was that Romney would be reelected, the question remained how big a margin the incumbent would receive. A combination of the storm, the recovering economy, the death of Bin Laden and the lackluster campaign of Kathleen Sebelius had tipped the scales heavily in favor of Romney. The polls pointed to a Romney victory.

The Real Clear Politics Average gave Romney 52.6% to 45.1% percent for Sebelius. On the far end of the spectrum Dick Morris was predicting a landslide for Romney, "one that would be for the books," while Nate Silver was more cautious. He expected a decisive victory for Romney, but would not go as to call it a landslide. "Taking into account all the polls in the battleground states, where Mitt Romney is leading, Romney will at the very least win the states he carried in 2008. In states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Jersey where there has been a slight Romney surge are hard to tell. I'm not ready to say he'll carry all, none or any, but depending on turnout he has the potential to pickup at least one of these states."

Given the likelihood that Sebelius would lose on Election Day, turnout [a record high four years ago] was looking to be considerably lower, causing many Democrats to consider staying home. Though party elders feared that a lower turnout would create a bigger victory than wanted for President Romney. "We don't want him making a bigger mandate than there actually is," Nancy Pelosi is reported to have said behind closed doors.

The Romney votes early in Massachusetts, before heading back to Washington for the day, before returning to Boston for election night celebrations. Kathleen Sebelius voted in Kansas, then spent the days taping interviews to be broadcast in all the swing states. Obama did the same. Casting his vote in Chicago, Obama projected confidence, "We're going to win this tonight. Not a question in my mind." Sebelius sounded last confident, only saying as she left in her motorcade, "We'll know when the votes are in and counted. Most important, every American should get out and vote today."

ELECTION: 2012

MITT ROMNEY:

KATHLEEN SEBELIUS

ROMNEY WITH AN EARLY LEAD OVER SEBELIUS

By 8pm Mitt Romney held a large lead in the electoral college and lead in the states yet to be called, diminishing any hopes of a Sebelius surprise. Even in traditional Democratic states like Delaware, Connecticut and New Jersey, Sebelius was struggling to keep Romney at bay. Of the three states New Jersey was the one state that could flip to Romney in the wake of the storm.

Electoral Map: 8:55 pm

Mit Romney: 120 (53.4%)

Kathleen Sebelius: 54 (45.7%)

New Jersey: Too Close to Call

Kathleen Sebelius: 52.5%

Mitt Romney: 47.3%

Pennsylvania: Too Close to Call

Mitt Romney: 51.9%

Kathleen Sebelius: 46.8%

One of the many big moments of the time came shortly before nine o'clock when Ohio was called for Mitt Romney, all but cementing the inevitable. Soon the state of Pennsylvania went for the Republican. It would not be long before Michigan would be called for Romney, along with Colorado. While Sebelius could keep Delaware and Connecticut in the Democratic column, it would not be enough. At precisely 10:29 pm the state of Iowa was projected for Romney and he went over the top -- he had been reelected.

√ Mitt Romney: 275 (53.7%)

Kathleen Sebelius: 93 (45.3%)

BREAKING NEWS: MITT ROMNEY RE-ELECTED PRESIDENT

Given the widespread of Romney's win, it was soon becoming apparent that Romney's win would be decisive.

Sebelius Concedes Graciously

Kathleen Sebelius did not waste any time, in delivering her concession. She telephone Mitt Romney and congratulated him on his election at 10:43 pm, and by 11:10 she was before her crowd of supporting conceding defeat. "I so wish I could have become your President, but I respect the will of the people and I wish President Romney well in leading this great nation into the bright future we all want America to have."

Four More Years!

President Romney addressed his supporters in Boston shortly after midnight. He applauded Kathleen Sebelius and the historic nature of her race. "She has made this country a better place through her commitment to service and I look forward to working with her in the weeks and months ahead in bridging the gaps for there is so much more that unites us than divides us." Romney signaled that his reelection showed a successful referendum on his policies and for approval to continue. "One thing remains abundantly clear, our nation's best and brightest days lie ahead."

The final results was not a landslide, but certainly a decisive victory for Mitt Romney who carried all the states he won in 2008, and added Minnesota and Wisconsin by narrow margins.

Minnesota:

√ Mitt Romney: 49.6%
Kathleen Sebelius: 49.5%

Wisconsin:

√ Mitt Romney: 49.7%

Kathleen Sebelius: 49.5%

New Jersey:

√ Kathleen Sebelius: 50.8%

Mitt Romney: 48.8%

New Jersey remained uncalled for a few days after the election but it ultimately proved too far out of reach and went for Sebelius, though by a slim margin. While Democrats retained control of Congress, Republican did increase their numbers in both Houses.

The bruising defeat for Democrats left many in the party wondering how they would rebuild to compete in 2016, given the change in the electoral map in the wake of President Romney. However, not all Democrats were convinced, with many believing the election(s) were more about Romney than about the Republican Party. Prior the avalanche of good news for Romney polls indicated a close race between Romney and Sebelius, and while there was never much doubt over a Romney reelection, some Democrats believed had outside events gone a different way the race would have been much closer in the end...[/i]

√ Mitt Romney: 352 (53.8%)

Kathleen Sebelius: 186 (45.0%)

[NHI]

Very good work, NHI! I hope this one continues on for a while longer.

Thanks!

[NHI]

President Romney

Over the next four years President Romney presided over an increasingly improving economy. On the world stage Romney had to deal with a resurgent Russia and the rise and spread of ISIS throughout the Middle East. In effort to combat the terrorist organization Romney ramped up the US presence in Iraq, building a coalition of nations to lead a campaign of air strikes and military activity that included some boots on the ground. Working with Secretary of Defense John McCain, Romney supported the arming of the moderates in Syria to combat the ISIS threat.

Romney's approval ratings shifted throughout this process, though his response to the beheading of American citizens received some praise, as Romney boldly declared "we will find people and send them to hell." It was a tough statement coming Romney and while he was successful in at least repressing ISIS, all knew that this would be a threat the United States and the world would be dealing with for years to come.

Romney's Signature Accomplishment: Healthcare

In the 2014 Midterms Republicans would pickup a few seats in the Senate and in the House, but Democrats would retain control. Face with a divided government, Romney once more pushed healthcare reform relying more on Democrats than his fellow Republicans. The result, would contain parts of what Romney did in Massachusetts, along with focuses on tort reform, some health saving accounts and allowing insurance companies to sell across state lines. It was a hodgepodge of Republican and Democrat ideas that Romney called "a victory for the American people, and a realization that we can work together on big issues in this city."

At the second pinnacle of his Presidency, Romney's approval approval rating hit 56 percent and would average between 54 and 53 percent throughout the remainder of his term in office.

Contemporaries and later historians deemed Romney a successful President, who succeeded in guiding America through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Michael Beschloss said, "He came in at a period of great uncertainty at the dawn of the new century. America had endured a terrorist attack and two wars that changed our nation forever, he came in after two presidents were mired in the results of those wars and in an increasingly weak economy. Romney is certainly not in the leagues of FDR, but he is someone who at least put America back on strong footing to meet the challenges of the 21st century and ensure that American remains a vibrant and important player for decades to come."

The Race to Succeed Romney

The race for 2016 began in earnest shortly after the midterm elections. It was widely expected that Vice President Pawlenty would run. He spent much of the 2014 elections campaigning for candidates around the nation and setup a SuperPac "America's Future" to lay the foundations for a presidential campaign. Even though Pawlenty was likely to run that did not leave out other Republicans from jumping in. While Romney was often called stiff, compared to Pawlenty Romney was a Cicero. Pawlenty could hardly be described as passionate, and many questioned whether or not he had the fire in the belly for campaign.

An effort existed to bring Chris Christie into the race through a Draft movement, but the New Jersey Governor declined, saying he intended to finish out his term as Governor. Behind close doors Christie knew it was foolish to challenge an incumbent Vice President and that it was more likely than not that Pawlenty would lose and that his term could come at a later time.

A Different Kind of Republican

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, announced his campaign for President in early 2015. Paul, the son of Former Congressman and 2008 Presidential Ron Paul won the Senate Race in 2010 in an upset, beating Democrat Jack Conway (51 to 48 percent). Paul remained a contrarian during his time in the Senate, often bucking his party and calling out President Romney for what he called "America's endless war policy." Paul was running more against Romney's foreign policy and presenting himself a more 'libertarian-style Republican.'

Charlie Crist For President

Florida Governor Charlie Crist (who ran for the Senate in 2010, but lost) announced he would run for President after his term ended. Crist remained a strong supporter of President Romney throughout his term, but in announcing his campaign Crist ran as a moderate to liberal Republican, emphasizing his support for gay marriage and called for a 'truce on social issue' in order to focus the primary campaign on economic and national security issues. He was not expected to run and while he did gain some traction, he was considered an underdog.

Pence Jumps In

Governor and Former Indiana Congressman Mike Pence jumped into the race for President, clearly positioning himself as the conservative candidate in the race. He focused heavily on Iowa and South Carolina and lambasted Crist on his 'social issue truce'. "We as Republicans should not duck on issues, otherwise we're know different than Democrats."'

One of the last few candidate who entered the race was Former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Citing his successful terms as Governor and the booming economy, Perry sought to make himself the strongest challenger to Pawlenty and he did receive some attention. A dynamic speaker, who could potentially unite both the establishment and conservative wings of the party.

The G.H.W Bush Factor?

Pawlenty, while able and competent seemed to lack the drive and passion needed to be President. He was often compared to Former President George H.W. Bush, who after serving as Vice President under Ronald Reagan ran for President and was criticized for seeming to lack the fire in the belly. While Pawlenty had the name ID and campaign infrastructure most pundits declared he was not a sure-thing to win the nomination.

2016 Republican Primary:

Tim Pawlenty: 25%
Rick Perry: 20%
Rand Paul: 14%
Mike Pence: 12%
Charlie Crist: 8%
Undecided: 21%

[NHI]

Democrats, eager to win back the White House began lining up after the midterm elections. One of the first candidates to enter the race was Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick. Following Patrick was Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, though her campaign failed to make it out of the pre-primary and after struggling in fundraising and polling she bowed out in early August.

The race did receive a major entrant when New York Mayor Christine Quinn threw her hat into the ring. Quinn, who was openly gay caused quite a stir as she declared her campaign, but when she announced she made it clear she was not a one issue candidate. "I've watched this President wave his hand in dismissal of the middle class and working people. He's out of touch when he says the economy is recovering, take a look around you Mitt, or take off the rose colored glasses because America is a much different place than corporate boardrooms and country clubs." Quinn rose to the top of the pack and became one of the frontrunners.

Brian Schweitzer, who ran in 2012 would also run again, as would Dennis Kucinich. Hillary Clinton was often touted as possible candidate throughout the midterm cycle, but she ultimately passed, preferring instead to remain in the Senate. Barack Obama, the 2012 VP Candidate strongly considered a second run for President, after his pathetic campaign in '12, but he too decided against a run. He endorsed Patrick.

Evan Bayh flirted with a run, traveling to Iowa and New Hampshire in early 2015, but he passed. A big figure entered the race in the summer of 2015 and that was New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo was often touted as a Presidential candidate after he won the Governorship in 2010. When Mayor Quinn announced, many believed the New York Governor would pass in a race that included a fellow New Yorker, but Cuomo would have none of it. Touting his successful terms as Governor that included bipartisan work, Cuomo ran as a moderate Democrat, refusing to directly criticized the relatively popular Romney, instead presenting his vision for America. Do to his name ID and fundraising prowess Cuomo rose to the top of the pack.

Cuomo Jumps In

2016 Democratic Primary Poll:

Andrew Cuomo: 28%
Deval Patrick: 21%
Christine Quinn: 19%%
Brian Schweitzer: 9%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%
Undecided: 20%

The field was established by the end of the summer and the campaign began. The criticism Cuomo faced was that he was too moderate and eager to work with Republicans, while Quinn was criticized for some of her controversial policies as Mayor that included an attempt to ban sugar drinks in the city, as well as her profiling techniques. Many pundits declared it a Battle on the Hudson between Cuomo and Quinn, while Patrick looked to pickup the slack and slip through. He focused his campaign on Iowa and New Hampshire.

[NHI]

The Clintons Back Cuomo

Heading into the final weeks before Iowa Andrew Cuomo received the backing of both Bill and Hillary Clinton. The prominent Democrats endorsed their home state Governor, calling him "the best candidate in the race and the only one who can win back the White House in 2016."

Cuomo, seemed to be trumpeting a type of third-way politics, which appealed greatly to the general electorate, but gave him difficulty in the primary. Christine Quinn, while an initial favorite seemed to struggle on the campaign trail and had a difficulty in connecting with primary voters. Deval Patrick as expected seemed to benefit the most from the Quinn collapse and the lack of liberal passion for Cuomo. The once sturdy primary field now seemed soft and tepid. Cuomo, an ideal candidate for the general election, faced a tough slog getting through an increasingly liberal primary process. The result, at least in Iowa was a decisive win for Deval Patrick who won the Iowa Caucuses.

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats 2016

√ Deval Patrick: 35.9%
Andrew Cuomo: 27.5%
Brian Schweitzer: 23.1%
Christine Quinn: 10.5%
Dennis Kucinich: 2.0%
Other: 1.0%

Patrick's stock saw an increase after his nearly ten point win over Cuomo. Brian Schweitzer, the oddball candidate in the race performed well in the Caucuses as well, coming in a strong third behind Cuomo. Quinn finished a distant fourth and many believed her poor showing cemented an already assumed fact, her campaign was done. However, Quinn vowed to remain in the race, looking to test the waters in New Hampshire, a state where both Cuomo and Patrick were locked in a head-to-head contest. Dennis Kucinich dropped out after Iowa, but left the door open to a possible Green Party candidacy, should as he put it, "The Democrats decide to nominate a Democrat in Republican Clothing."

On the Republican side, the result was not as decisive. For months Pawlenty was hounded by both Rick Perry and Rand Paul, his two toughest rivals, forcing him to move incredibly closer to the hard right. At one point it looked as though Paul, do to the split between Perry and Pawlenty,  but Mike Pence proved himself a credible candidate, going after the social conservative vote in the state.

The result an essential three way tie between Perry, Pawlenty and Pence.

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans 2016

√ Tim Pawlenty: 27.41%
Rick Perry: 27.29%
Mike Pence: 24.64%
Rand Paul: 17.66%
Charlie Crist: 2.04%
Other: 0.96%

√ Pawlenty Squeaks By In Iowa

The divided field between Perry and Pence and Paul pulling up the rear allowed Pawlenty, (from neighboring Minnesota) to narrowly edge out his closest rival Perry by 0.12 percent. The Iowa win gave the Vice President's campaign a major boost, a loss in the state would have hindered his candidacy going forward. At this point, most pundits declared, There is no rescue boat insight, but his head was above water!

Rand Paul, focused much of his campaign on New Hampshire, hoping the states libertarian streak would help him pull out a victory. Pawlenty campaigned in the state aggressively and received the backing of the states' Governor Chris Sununu (Son of Former Governor John Sununu). Pawlenty also earned the backing of the states' senior senator Judd Gregg. Most polls after Iowa showed Pawlenty in the lead, but on primary night he came up short, losing to Paul in a close contest.

PAUL BLOWS PRIMARY WIDE OPEN!

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans 2016

√ Rand Paul: 36.5%
Tim Pawlenty: 34.8%
Rick Perry: 13.6%
Mike Pence: 9.8%
Charlie Crist: 4.3%
Other: 1.0%

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats 2016

√ Andrew Cuomo: 40.4%
Deval Patrick: 37.2%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.0%
Christine Quinn: 9.4%
Other: 0.9%

On the Democratic side, Andrew Cuomo fended off a challenge from Iowa winner and Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick to win the New Hampshire primary. The victory put Cuomo back on top as a frontrunner and with the primary calendar looking more favorable to him down the line most pundits called it a turning point in the race.

After New Hampshire, more candidates exited the primary. On the Republican side, Charlie Crist who finished last in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and with an only possible victory being a token win in Florida, he dropped out and endorsed Pawlenty. Mike Pence, too dropped out of the race and endorsed fellow governor Rick Perry, saying as he parted, "We need a conservative at the top of the ticket."

As for the Democrats Brian Schweitzer proved a one note candidate and while he did better than expected in New Hampshire four years earlier, he finished a distant third behind Patrick and Cuomo and while he remained in the race, viability [whatever there was] was gone. Christine Quinn finished last in New Hampshire, with a meager 9 percent of the vote. Her two disappointing finishes left many wondering what purpose she served in the race, with Cuomo and Patrick taking up all the air in the room, Quinn found her campaign without oxygen and leaving New Hampshire she dropped out, but did not immediately endorse either of the two candidates, preferring to remain neutral for the time being.

Democratic Nomination Preference Poll: 2016

Andrew Cuomo: 41%
Deval Patrick: 39%
Brian Schweitzer: 7%
Undecided: 13%

Republican Nomination Preference Poll: 2016

Tim Pawlenty: 29%
Rick Perry: 26%
Rand Paul: 25%
Undecided: 20%

PERRY & PATRICK WIN SOUTH CAROLINA

Both Rick Perry and Deval Patrick rebounded in both their campaigns by winning the South Carolina Primary. Perry routed Pawlenty with a decisive win, causing concerns to bubble up over the viability and longevity of the Pawlenty Campaign and whether or not his candidacy was a starter or not. In Patrick's case, the race was closer, but aided by a strong turnout in African-American vote Patrick came out ahead. For Cuomo, the goal was keeping Patrick from winning an outright majority of the vote, and in that effort he succeeded, while in the case of Pawlenty, his seven point loss illustrated conservative's resistance to his candidacy.

South Carolina Primary: Republicans 2016

√ Rick Perry: 43.2%
Tim Pawlenty: 34.9%
Rand Paul: 20.9%
Undecided: 1.0%

South Caorlina Primary: Democrats 2016

√ Deval Patrick: 48.6%
Andrew Cuomo: 44.9%
Brian Schweitzer: 5.7%
Undecided: 0.8%

[NHI]

A Weak Frontrunner

Vice President Pawlenty looked beaten after the South Carolina Primary and the national polls weren't much better for him either. More and more primary voters were favoring Rick Perry over the Vice President, and on the premise of who was more conservative Perry trounced Pawlenty 48 to 34 percent. Even broader most Americans felt like they didn't even know the two-term Vice President, with only 38 percent of Americans having a favorable opinion of him and 34 percent having a negative opinion on him. Words used to describe him were 'weak' 'indecisive' 'follower' 'uninspiring' 'lacking'. The Pawlenty campaign acknowledged these shortcomings from the start, but failed to do much about it, believing that by the nature of the Vice Presidency Pawlenty would sail through the nomination. However, that was not to be the case.

Heading into the Florida Primary, Pawlenty was already losing ground in a state he was expected to carry fairly easily. After his win in South Carolina Perry's numbers skyrocketed and most polls had him leading or tied with the Vice President. Even a campaign internal poll for Tim Pawlenty had him down by one 45 to 44 percent.

On the ropes politically the Vice President and his team refocused and shifted strategies. Pawlenty embraced wholeheartedly the successes of the Romney Administration and continued to plug his on name on those accomplishments. "Look at where we were almost eight years ago. The country was a mess, but President Romney and I rolled up our sleeves and got to work and we've come back and I want to continue the progress we've made in pushing this country forward!"

Pawlenty saw his stock rise a little, but there was deep concerns within the base over his conservative credentials. Across the country more states were enacting same-sex marriage laws and the Supreme Court of the United States moved to uphold a controversial ban. Pawlenty, seizing an opportunity took a moment to stand in direct opposition to the historic tidal change remaining firm in his opposition to gay marriage. The Romney Administration position had changed over time from protection of the Defense of Marriage Act, to deferring to state legislature on how best to handle a state issue. While Romney remained personally opposed, he did not speak out on the issue when the Supreme Court handed down a ruling, drawing ire from the conservative base. This was an opportunity for Pawlenty to stand on his own two feet.

Shortly before the Florida Primary, both he and Governor Perry spoke at CPAC in Washington, where both candidates offered red meat to the hardcore base. Perry spoke of a flat tax and vowed to fight to traditional marriage. Perry's speech was a day before Pawlenty's and drew a great and thunderous applause from the audience. For Pawlenty the speech was twofold. Rally the base without looking as though he were pandering and win the CPAC straw poll at the end of the convention. Having already been humiliated by finishing third in the Ames Straw Poll back in August, Pawlenty was determined not have a repeat poor showing.

In his speech Pawlenty tossed out red meat to the base like peanuts and crackerjacks at a baseball game. The response was relatively positive for the Vice President, who was certainly not the darling of the conservative movement. Though the part of his speech that received the most notoriety from the convention audience and in the press was his final remarks, where he drew a distinction between himself and both Governors Cuomo and Patrick. "We already know how Governor Cuomo and Governor Patrick will govern this country if they become President. Despite they're best efforts to disguise their records, they've flipped flopped more than John Kerry. [laughs/applause]. How they'll govern is liberal. They won't compromise, they won't back down from their rigid beliefs and if called to do so, they'll waffle and wiggle and fall flat on their faces like Democrats always do. I won't take that approach. As President I will govern as a conservative -severe and firm --  and -- I won't back down from my principles because my principles are our principles -- our America's principles..."

The line, "I will govern as a conservative - serve and firm.." created chatter among the press corp immediately drew a response from the Democratic Party. Even both Patrick and Cuomo blasted Pawlenty for 'pandering to extremism in his own party' ' and illustrating in a single phrase how out of touch he is with Main Street America."

While Pawlenty received flack from the speech, he nevertheless walked away with a win in the straw poll, albeit narrowly. Pawlenty won with 42 percent of the vote, followed by Perry who came in with 40 percent. Rand Paul finished third with 17 percent.

In Florida Rick Perry campaigned up and down the state, speaking to large crowds and feeding on their enthusiasm. Comparing the two candidates on the stump created a unique contrast. Perry was very engaging and direct, Pawlenty was more reserved and timid. Both men's styles reflected difference in careers, in leadership positions and in philosophy. Though Pawlenty seemed to be on the upward swing heading into Florida, most voters at least nationally believed of the two Perry was more presidential and fit the attributes of a leader.

Perry would come up second in the Florida Primary, but he kept Pawlenty below the fifty percent mark his campaign so desperately wanted to meet. Failing to shake off Perry in Florida meant that unfortunately for the Vice President and his campaign the primary slog would continue at least into Super Tuesday...and maybe beyond.

Florida Primary: Republicans 2016

√ Tim Pawlenty: 44.9%
Rick Perry: 41.5%
Rand Paul: 12.7%
Other: 0.9%

On the Democratic side, despite Deval Patrick's win in South Carolina Andrew Cuomo won a decisive victory in the Florida primary, outspending Patrick 2-1 in the state and effectively stopping any momentum the Massachusetts Democrat received coming out of his win in South Carolina. Nevertheless, Patrick remained determine to fight and would remain in the race for the long haul as he put it to his supporters. "This nomination will not be decided quickly and easily. It will be fought for and it will ultimately be earned. That is the noble tradition of us the Democratic Party."

Florida Primary: Democrats 2016

√ Andrew Cuomo: 51.4%

Deval Patrick: 42.0%
Brian Schweitzer: 6.2%
Other: 0.4%

Republican Nomination Preference Poll: February 2016

Tim Pawlenty: 42% (+3)
Rick Perry: 39%
Rand Paul: 10%
Undecided: 9%

Democratic Nomination Preference Poll: February 2016

Andrew Cuomo: 46% (+5)
Deval Patrick: 41%
Brian Schweitzer: 4%
Undecided: 9%

General Election Poll: February 2016

Tie

Andrew Cuomo: 44.6% (+0.1)
Tim Pawlenty: 44.5%

Cuomo: +1.5

Andrew Cuomo: 45.4%

Rick Perry: 43.9%

Pawlenty: Barely (+0.3)

Tim Pawlenty: 44.1%

Deval Patrick: 43.8%

Patrick: +1.4

Deval Patrick: 44.5%

Rick Perry: 43.1%

-------------

Pawlenty: +13.9

Tim Pawlenty: 49.7%

Brian Schweitzer: 35.8%

Perry: +11.1

Rick Perry: 46.3%

Brian Schweitzer: 35.2%

Cuomo: +7

Andrew Cuomo: 46.0%

Rand Paul: 39.0%

Patrick: +6.9

Deval Patrick: 45.9%

Rand Paul: 39.0%

In the aftermath of the Florida Primary the race shifted to contests in Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. Maine and Nevada were held was a week before the four state swing and on the Democratic side Patrick rebounded with narrow wins over Cuomo in both states, while on the Republican side Pawlenty won it, but Rand Paul proved he was still a factor in the race and came in a close second and won outright in Nevada, where Pawlenty finished third.

The Threat(s) To Pawlenty's Nomination

[NHI]

Maine Caucuses: Republicans 2016

√ Tim Pawlenty: 39.7%
Rand Paul: 36.9%
Rick Perry: 22.5%
Other: 0.9%

Nevada Caucuses: Republicans 2016

√ Rand Paul: 35.1%
Rick Perry: 34.4%
Tim Pawlenty: 29.9%
Other: 0.6%

Maine Caucuses: Democrats 2016

√ Deval Patrick: 49.0%
Andrew Cuomo: 46.9%
Brian Schweitzer: 3.8%
Other: 0.3%

Nevada Caucuses: Republicans 2016

√ Deval Patrick: 46.7%
Andrew Cuomo: 46.0%
Brian Schweitzer: 7.1%
Other: 0.2%

In the three-way race the following week the results were split. On the Democratic side Cuomo walked away with wins in both Minnesota and Missouri, while Patrick won Colorado. As for the Republicans Pawlenty would take his home state of Minnesota without a contest and narrowly Colorado from the refurbished Rand Paul, while Rick Perry walked away handily with Missouri.

Minnesota Caucuses: 2016

Democrats:

√ Andrew Cuomo: 51.0%
Deval Patrick: 45.1%
Brian Schweitzer: 3.2%
Other: 0.7%

Republicans:

√ Tim Pawlenty: 65.5%
Rick Perry: 18.7%
Rand Paul: 15.7%
Other: 0.1%

Missouri Primary:
Democrats:

√ Andrew Cuomo: 51.4%

Deval Patrick: 46.0%
Brian Schweitzer: 2.0%
Other: 0.6%

Republicans:

√ Rick Perry: 46.7%
Tim Pawlenty: 37.4%
Rand Paul: 15.7%
Other: 0.2%

Colorado Caucuses:
Democrats:

√ Deval Patrick: 49.6%
Andrew Cuomo: 46.9%
Brian Schweitzer: 3.1%
Other: 0.4%

Republicans:

√ Tim Pawlenty: 39.1%
Rand Paul: 37.6%
Rick Perry: 22.8%
Other: 0.5%

The divided results on both sides, proved the nomination battle had only just begun and Super Tuesday would be the real test for the established frontrunners and their resilient challengers.

[NHI]

Pawlenty Rebounds

Heading into Super Tuesday Tim Pawlenty came through with a win in Michigan. He managed to defeat Rick Perry 48 percent to 43 percent. On Super Tuesday the Pawlenty Campaign claimed to have the momentum. Perry was fully expected to dominate in the south, while Pawlenty would dominate in the northeast. The test would come in states like Ohio and Illinois. A win by Pawlenty in both would end Perry's campaign, while a split would likely prolong the fight. Perry spent the final days crisscrossing the country, but in the end the superiority to the Pawlenty campaign overwhelmed the Texas Governor and Perry was routed on Super Tuesday losing all the big contests.

Post-Super Tuesday Map

Tim Pawlenty

Rick Perry

Rand Paul

Rick Perry's campaign faded into the sunset after Super Tuesday. He pledged support for Pawlenty and encouraged his delegates to vote for Pawlenty at the convention. Rand Paul would remain in the race until Pawlenty went over the top with his victory in the Wisconsin and Texas primaries a few weeks later. Paul would win one primary in home state of Kentucky, though by a narrower margin than expected (52 percent to 48 percent). At the end of the cycle, Paul did not endorse Pawlenty, instead looking to have his name placed in nomination at the convention, citing ideological differences that needed to be addressed and aired.

√ Tim Pawlenty: Presumptive Nominee (11,564,222) 47.52%

Rick Perry: (7,560,433) 31.07%

Rand Paul: (4,342,111) (17.84%)

Other: 787,456 (3.57%)

Rand Paul Continues the Fight

"I won over four millions votes out of the twenty-four cast, I represent a credible bloc of Americans who are concerned with the direction of our country and of the Republican Party."

√ Andrew Cuomo: Presumptive Nominee ( 17,642,467) 49.46%

Deval Patrick: 16,984,244 (47.61%)

Other: 1,041,100 (2.75%)

On the Democratic side the fight for the nomination was long and protracted. Both eventual nominee Andrew Cuomo and runner up Deval Patrick fought what many described as a bitter campaign. Both sides attacked one another record as governor, with Patrick labeling Cuomo "A weak Democrat" and one who would be too willingly to work with Republicans and "give the Democrats the shaft" while Cuomo blasted Patrick for the fragile Massachusetts economy and for "resorting to the type of tactics that defeat Democrats in election: raise taxes and fees". The fight left the party divided and Cuomo the presumptive nominee had the hard job of bring the party together that was nearly torn apart after the primary battle.

Deval Patrick had made history, becoming the first black man to win more caucuses and primaries than anyone who had run before and nearly came close to winning the nomination. Both Cuomo and Patrick ended up receiving votes than any candidate in past primaries. Some Democratic pundits believed the only way to unite the party and to go in strong against Pawlenty was to have Patrick on the ticket as Vice President, but the Massachusetts Governor dismissed such talk when asked about it publicly, and even told Cuomo in his concession speech, "I didn't run to be number two."

Patrick pledged unity to Cuomo and vowed to campaign for him in the election, but his support was tepid at best, and at the convention it looked as though his name would still be placed in nomination, rather than a vote by acclamation for Cuomo. "Let's let it stand on the record," Patrick said at the convention in Columbus, Ohio. "Let it stand for history." Cuomo would ultimately be nominated without delay, winning over most of the Patrick delegates after the former Massachusetts Governor released them and urged them to vote for the New York Governor. "He must be our next President," Patrick said at the convention in a prime time address. "We do not need a candidate with less charisma than Mitt Romney, but with the same failed catalog of policies."

CUOMO-WARNER: 2016

For his running mate Andrew Cuomo tapped Former Virginia Governor and incumbent Senator Mark Warner. Warner had won a surprise upset in the Virginia Senate race four years earlier when he defeated incumbent George Allen by a narrow margin (51.0% - 48.9%). The pick of Warner was seen as a safe pick by Cuomo, but also one who would be acceptable to the Democratic base. In his acceptance speech he took aim at Pawlenty, earning much praise for his fiery delivery.

Nominated: Cuomo Takes Charge

In his acceptance speech Andrew Cuomo made an unexpected move where he praised President Mitt Romney for his service to the nation, saying, "While the President and I do not agree on much politically he and I both love this country as an American first I have nothing but the highest respect for the highest office in our land. Regardless of political party we always respect the dignity of the office and what it means to our country and yes to the world. As your President, which I hope to be I wish to aspire to point. To serve you the people of our country, to answer only to you and always for you..."

Cuomo speech was praised for its poetry and delivery. He mentioned Tim Pawlenty only once, referring him as the Vice President. The speech focused on what a Cuomo Presidency would offer. In an era of growing economic prosperity Cuomo had to tread carefully. He pledged to ensure that this "era of good feeling and renewed spirit would continue and last." Oddly and perhaps brilliantly enough, Cuomo managed to, [as some pundits noted] to diminish Pawlenty in his speech without so much as attacking him and instead position himself as the natural successor to Mitt Romney.

Cuomo presented himself not as a liberal, but as a moderate Democrat, who would reach across the aisle. As it was dubbed in the media, "Bush had compassionate conservative, and Cuomo has realistic liberalism."

The polls showed a bounce after the convention will Cuomo crushing the yet to be nominated Vice President.

General Election Poll: Gallup August 2016 D+7

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 48%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 41%

Undecided: 11%

General Election Poll: PPP August 2016 D+9

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 50%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 41%

Undecided: 9%

General Election Poll: NBC/WSJ August 2016 D+6

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 43%

Undecided: 8%

General Election Poll: Rasmussen August 2016 D+4

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 48%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 44%

Undecided: 8%

General Election Poll: RCP Average August 2016 D+6.5

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 48.75%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 42.25%

Undecided: 9%

[NHI]

Battleground States 2016: Results from 2012

Minnesota: +0.1

√ Mitt Romney: 49.6%

Kathleen Sebelius: 49.5%

Wisconsin: +0.2

√ Mitt Romney: 49.7%

Kathleen Sebelius: 49.5%

Pennsylvania: +4.1

√ Mitt Romney: 51.5%

Kathleen Sebelius: 47.4%

Michigan: +5.0

√ Mitt Romney: 51.9%

Kathleen Sebelius: 46.9

Ohio: +5.2

√ Mitt Romney: 52.0%

Kathleen Sebelius: 46.8%

New Mexico: +5.2

√ Mitt Romney: 52.2%

Kathleen Sebelius: 47.0%

Iowa: +6.1

√ Mitt Romney: 52.5%

Kathleen Sebelius: 46.4%

Florida: +6.6

√ Mitt Romney: 52.0%

Kathleen Sebelius: 45.4%

Nevada: +6.7

√ Mitt Romney: 52.5%

Kathleen Sebelius: 45.8%

New Hampshire: +8.5

√ Mitt Romney: 53.4%

Kathleen Sebelius: 44.9%

Virginia: +8.8

√ Mitt Romney: 53.7%

Kathleen Sebelius: 44.9%

[NHI]

Tim Pawlenty: 202 solid (Lean 22)

Andrew Cuomo: 186 Solid (Lean 20)
Tossup: 114 (w/ leans: 130)

Colorado: Lean Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty: 48.2%

Andrew Cuomo: 46.9%

Florida: Tossup

Tim Pawlenty: 47.9%

Andrew Cuomo: 47.1%

Iowa: Tossup

Tim Pawlenty: 48.0%

Andrew Cuomo: 47.4%

Michigan: Tossup

Andrew Cuomo: 47.7%

Tim Pawlenty: 46.9%

Minnesota: Tossup

Tim Pawlenty: 48.6%

Andrew Cuomo: 48.4%

Nevada: Tossup

Andrew Cuomo: 48.9%

Tim Pawlenty: 48.0%

New Mexico: Tossup

Tim Pawlenty: 48.6%

Andrew Cuomo: 47.9%

New Hampshire: Tossup

Andrew Cuomo: 48.3%

Tim Pawlenty: 47.7%

Ohio: Tossup

Andrew Cuomo: 47.4%

Tim Pawlenty: 47.3%

Pennsylvania: Lean Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo: 48.9%

Tim Pawlenty: 46.8%

Virginia: Lean Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty: 48.9%

Andrew Cuomo: 46.1%

Wisconsin: Tossup

Andrew Cuomo: 47.8%

Tim Pawlenty: 47.0%

President Romney Approval Rating: August 2016

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 41%
Undecided/No Opinion: 6%

Vice President Pawlenty Approval Rating: August 2016

Approve: 47%

Disapprove: 44%

Undecided/No Opinion: 9%

Governor Cuomo Approval Rating: August 2016 (NY)

Approve: 55%

Disapprove: 41%

Undecided/No Opinion: 4%

Governor Cuomo Favorability: August 2016

Favorable: 49%

Unfavorable: 42%
Undecided/No Opinion: 9%

Who do you Trust to Handle the Economy?

Andrew Cuomo: 47%

Tim Pawlenty: 45%

Who do you Trust to Handle Foreign Policy?

Tim Pawlenty: 45%

Andrew Cuomo: 45%

Who is more in touch with your concerns?

Andrew Cuomo: 48%

Tim Pawlenty: 45%

Which Candidate do you Support? (Independents) D+5

Andrew Cuomo: 49%

Tim Pawlenty: 44%

If The Election Were Held Today, who would you vote for?

Andrew Cuomo: 48%

Tim Pawlenty: 44%

[NHI]

The Republican Convention

The convention proved tumultuous from the start, with the Rand Paul and his delegates refusing to back Pawlenty until there was a formal roll call on the ballot. Tim Pawlenty and Rand Paul's name would both be placed on the ballot, even though Paul lacked enough delegates and clout to mount a serious bid. Pawlenty was successfully nominated on the first ballot, but Paul refused to endorse Pawlenty. Prior to the convention, while not strongly, Pawlenty considered asking Paul to be his running mate, but after the spectacle leading up the convention and during Pawlenty was glad he never seriously considered it.

It's Perry for VP

Pawlenty chose former rival Rick Perry as a way of uniting the party. Perry made up for the Vice President's perceived lack of conservative credential and in a symbolic way saw Pawlenty transitioning away from President Romney. Romney spoke on the first night of the convention, but the feeling in the room, at least among the party activist, is that they were done with Mitt and looking for an authentic conservative. One delegate said on the floor, "Romney was good in guiding us through the storm, now we need a conservative who can finish the job and get us back to port."

In an odd move by modern political standards, the convention's addresses largely focused on staunch conservative policies and the speeches were even critical (subtly of course) over the Romney Administration. "We don't need leaders to go weak at the knees, we need to have knees of steels, along with principles of steel. We need to govern when we get to Washington," Perry said, "and by God that's what we're going to do."

In his acceptance speech Pawlenty delivered arguably the best speech of his career. Down in the polls, in a political and economic climate that favored him, he returned to his roots. Weary of the Republican Party's hard lurch to the right, Pawlenty tried to tact the party back towards the center, embracing his 'Walmart-style Republicanism' appeal, which won his the Governor's Mansion in 2002 and the Vice Presidency in 2008.

"We know that these are good times. Our country is back and better and yes stronger than it was eight years ago, and I thank President Romney for all he has done in guiding this great nation, it has been an honor to serve and work with him...but we also know not every American is feeling the economic revival, but the choice in this election is clear. Are we to go forward as a country, or backward? Forward towards prosperity, or backward towards recession. Strange as it may seem the Democrats did not mention President John Kerry at their convention. Instead, they glossed over him, as if 2005 to 2009 never happened. Well, I've got news for Governor Cuomo and Senator Warner, America doesn't forget. They, the Democrats are banking on all of us having short memories, but we won't be played. We're smarter than that and we as a country deserve better."

Republicans left their convention in Philadelphia united and energized with their ticket. For the first time in months Pawlenty and Cuomo were essentially even in the polls, a boost for Pawlenty who trailed the New York Governor throughout the summer and heavily after the DNC. For the first time in a long time it looked as though there might actually be a race.

General Election Poll: September 2016

Andrew Cuomo: 47.1%

Tim Pawlenty: 46.6%

[NHI]

Cuomo Makes his Case

Romney Joins Pawlenty on the Stump

The Presidential Campaign entered its final stretch. Both candidate broke with tradition and agreed only to a single debate to take place in the pivotal state of Florida. Cuomo and Pawlenty both agreed it would be a combination of town hall style, with opening and closing remarks.

Both men appeared comfortable in the debate setting, and it was considered a nice change of past from previous debates. Both Rick Perry and Mark Warner participated in a traditional style debate where Warner was seen as the winner over Perry who appeared stiff and uninformed at times. Though, not much damage was done. The focus was the Presidential debate. Pawlenty kept largely to talking about his plan to 'keep America moving forward' though when Cuomo called Pawlenty out on his position on gay marriage, Pawlenty gave an awkward answer that took a more federalist approach, but was muddled and became the point most replayed in the debate. Of the two Cuomo was seen as more confident by the viewers and Pawlenty uncomfortable. Picked up by many was Pawlenty's inability or refusal to look Cuomo directly in the eye. Polls indicated a narrow win for Cuomo, which fed into his campaign's narrative of growing momentum.

[NHI]

The Closest Election in US History

Closing Arguments

The candidates crisscrossed the United States, targeting the battleground states before returning to their home states to await the results. Polls showed a close race, and most pundits declared the election a coin toss. Many expected it to be the closest election since at least 2000 -- sixteen years earlier.

RCP Average: November 2016

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 48.4%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 48.3%

Undecided: 3.2%

Dixville Notch was the first town in the country to vote, the small community of ten cast their ballots at midnight on election day and the results were indicative of a close election. The results in Hart's Location were also close, giving Cuomo a slight edge.

Dixville Notch Results: NH

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 5 (50%)

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 5 (50%)

Hart's Location Results: NH

√ (D) Andrew Cuomo: 17 (50%)

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 15 (44.1%)
Other: 2 (5.9%)

Turnout in 2012 topped nearly 59 percent, while in 2016 turnout was expected to reach 2008 levels of 60 percent. As the results poured in from across the country many of the states fell as expected, but the battlegrounds states were closer than expected. The first significant swing was Michigan going for Cuomo, after backing Romney in '08 and '12.

Election Results: 9:58 pm EST

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 146 (51.6%)

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 12 (48.3%)

States too Close to Call:

Minnesota: R+0.1

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 50.0%

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.9%

Wisconsin: D+1.3

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 50.0%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.3%

Pennsylvania: D+0.2

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.6%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.4%

Ohio: R+ 0.3

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.7%

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.4%

Virginia: D+0.4

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.9%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.5%

Florida: R+0.3

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.6%

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.3%

New Hampshire:D+0.4

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.8%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.4%

Given the closeness of the results, both candidates would not concede until all the results were called. As the night carried on Cuomo succeeded in carrying another Romney state - New Hampshire. Focus was on Ohio, but Virginia as well -- home state to Democratic Running mate Mark Warner. Romney carried the states decisively in both '08 and '12, but with a popular Democratic figure on the ticket with Cuomo, the New York Democrat was leading -- albeit narrowly in the reliably Republican state.

As the witching hour approached, Cuomo took back Wisconsin, while Pawlenty narrowly held onto Ohio. Talking heads on both sides flirted with the idea of a possible recount, should the election be anything but decisive. The popular vote show a slim margin for Cuomo at first, but then went to Pawlenty, but then back to Cuomo. They trade back and forth throughout the night. Many pundits believed the election should have a been a cakewalk for Pawlenty -- the incumbent Vice President overseeing a recovering economy and stronger America than at the time he took office, but Pawlenty's on inabilities to stand on his own to two feet and embrace the Romney record made the election seem to slip away from him...while other criticized Cuomo for failing to capitalize on a relatively weak Vice President.

"He should be running away with this right now," Chris Matthews on Election Night, after seeing the closeness in margins. News outlets, nervous about repeating the election call of sixteen years earlier, sat, waiting nearly 100% of the votes were counted in all the contested states.

Election Results: 11:33 pm EST

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 216 (50.0%)

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 215 (49.9%)

11:51 pm Est: Pennsylvania: 99% Reported

√ (D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.9%

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 49.5%

12:05 am Est: Virginia 99% Reported

√ (D) Andrew Cuomo: 49.72%

(D) Tim Pawlenty: 49.53%

Virginia going for Cuomo marked a major turning point on election night, with many in the media calling it a significant win, even with the loss of Ohio, Virginia going Democratic in a presidential election was unbelievable.

Election Results: 12:29 pm Est

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 249 (49.9%)

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 230 (49.9%)

The biggest upset of the night was Cuomo's win in Minnesota, (which had voted for Romney narrowly in '12) was seen as a decisive blow and from there the momentum continued for the New York Governor who carried both Iowa and New Mexico, and thus was elected President of the United States.

√ Andrew Cuomo Defeats VP Tim Pawlenty

√ (D) Andrew Cuomo: 270 (49.9%)

Tim Pawlenty: 262 (49.9%)

Nevada would remained uncalled until the early morning hours, ultimately going for Tim Pawlenty. Given the closeness of the election results many believed Pawlenty might contest the election results. It was the closest election in American history, with Andrew Cuomo winning precisely 270 electoral votes -- the number needed to elected President. The popular vote was essentially tied with a slim edge to Cuomo, but as the remaining votes were complied it actually appeared that Pawlenty -- not Cuomo would win the popular vote, a stunning shock and reversal from sixteen years ago.

The Day After

√ (D) Andrew Cuomo: 270 (49.45%)

(R) Tim Pawlenty: 268 (49.58%)

Other: 0 (1.07%)

[NHI]

Recount Delivers Pawlenty Win

November 9th, 2017 the recount nightmare began. Both the Pawlenty and Cuomo Campaigns lined up their suits for series of recounts in the decisively close states of New Mexico, Virginia, Iowa and Minnesota. The results in New Mexico, Virginia and Minnesota would stand, much to the dismay of Pawlenty. What would follow was an intensive recount in Iowa that made Florida and 2000 look like a landslide. Both sides slammed one another and though election day had come and gone it seemed as though the campaign never ended.

It would take narrowly four weeks before the election results were certified on December 6th and the Pawlenty Campaign was successful in their recount in Iowa. The final result put Pawlenty over the top with a narrow win. His win in 274 and Andrew Cuomo's official concession, Pawlenty was elected President of the United States in the closest election in modern American history.

Iowa Presidential Election Results: Recount (100% Recounted)

√ (R) Tim Pawlenty: 809,222 (49.482654%)

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 809,199 (49.481247%)

√ (R) Tim Pawlenty: 274 (49.6%)

(D) Andrew Cuomo: 264 (49.5%)

[NHI]

The Abbreviated Presidency

Tim Pawlenty took office in January of 2017, after a divisive and hotly contested election. The result left him without a mandate to lead and dismal ratings. His approval rating stood at 48 percent on Inauguration Day and in his address, Pawlenty spoke to middle America, pledging to end the bitter partisanship and work together with Democrats and Republicans. While the new President received high points for his remarks he was largely unsuccessful in building a governing coalition and seemed to reenforce the belief that Pawlenty was better served in the number two position -- not as the President. In 2018 the Democrats increased their control of Congress, further weakening the President.

While the economy had largely recovered, political inaction in Washington by the Democrats made governing impossible and any action on big ticket items such as social security or tax reform would be pushed off until after the 2020 elections. Twice Pawlenty considered seriously the idea of not running for a second term, but dismissed them on the basis that he would look even weaker and instantly become a lame duck. In most polls he fared worst against his Democratic rivals and in a potential rematch with Andrew Cuomo, polls showed the President would lose: 52 to 45 percent. Faced with a decision to make in January of 2019, shortly after the Democrat's impressive midterm showing the President announced to his party, the country and the world that he would not be seeking a second term, saying that he intended to focus 'on governing, not campaigning," stressing the need for Washington gridlock to enter and for talk to turn into solutions and results.

Immediately Rick Perry, the impatient Vice President declared his intentions to run and instantly became the frontrunner and likely nominee. However, Perry's insistence of making social issues a greater focus than they had been during the Romney Presidency and throughout the Pawlenty Administration, brought the ire of moderates in the party and soon supporters rallied behind former Utah Governor and Secretary of State under Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman.

Huntsman embraced a 'compassionate conservatism' and stressed his expertise on foreign affairs and also on ending the gridlock in Washington. Huntsman ran as an outsider, stressing his lack of Washington ties and focus on being a problem solver. However, Perry's ID and status as Vice President made his run a fool's errand.

Perry trounced Huntsman in the Iowa Caucuses 59 to 39 percent, but in the New Hampshire Primary, where Perry never found much success before and where Huntsman staked out his entire campaign he managed to upset the Vice President in a narrow contest. (54 percent to 44 percent). Despite his win in New Hampshire, which at first glance seemed to shake up the Republican Primary Huntsman would go onto lose the South Carolina Primary badly (57 to 42 percent) and narrowly in Florida (52 percent to 47 percent). He would win the Colorado and Maine Caucuses and narrowly took the Michigan and Arizona primaries, but Perry crushed him on Super Tuesday. Huntsman dropped out, but offered a tepid endorsement at best for Perry -- and said publicly he would not be considered for Vice President.

The Democrat's Lady

On the Democrat's side Missouri Governor Claire McCaskill would go onto win the nomination after running as a long shot candidate, who came in first in the Iowa Caucuses, defeating long time favorite and early frontrunner Deval Patrick. She would face competition from New Jersey Governor Cory Booker (who won the South Carolina) and 2016 Democratic Nominee Andrew Cuomo, who entered a late entry candidate in October as part of a DRAFT CUOMO movement. Cuomo would narrowly win the New Hampshire primary, which resulted in pushing Patrick (who finished fourth) out of the race and McCaskill proved to be more than a one trick pony by coming in a strong second.

She would go onto defeat Cuomo in Florida, effectively pushing him out as a factor in the race. Booker remained McCaskill's biggest competition, winning the Michigan Primary decisively (41 percent to McCaskill's 32 percent). Similarly to four years earlier, Booker and McCaskill battled it out almost until the end, when a close but decisive win in the Illinois Primary put the Missouri Governor in the lead. She would clinch the Democratic Nomination with a win in Texas and united with Booker, her chief rival by asking him to serve as Vice President -- Booker easily accepted.

2020 Democratic Primary

√ Claire McCaskill: (49.8%)

Cory Booker: (47.2%)

Andrew Cuomo: (1.2%)

Deval Patrick: (0.9%)
Other: 1.8%

As for the Republicans Rick Perry reached out to former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, to be his running mate. The move was seen as uniting the two growing and divided factions in the Republican Party between the moderates and conservatives. The choice of Crist, who was more socially liberal, angered many conservatives, but nonetheless he was nominated successfully. Early polls prior to the conventions gave Perry a one to two point lead nationally and analyst once again predicted another likely narrow election outcome.

After the Democratic Convention McCaskill led Perry nationally by two to four points, but it quickly returned to a one to two point race after the RNC. Despite a relatively sound economy and stable world, Perry proved an ineffective campaign and while he delivered a good speech, he was awful on the stump and often made mistakes and had the tendency to come across as an idiot. McCaskill, for her part ran a campaign of change. After nearly twelve years of Republican Rule, she offered herself as a candidate not from Washington -- who could reform it and make it better. The debate did little to change the dynamics of the race. Up until the final weekend polls showed a dead heat, but in the final hours before election day McCaskill started to pull away with a slight lead and made history on Election Day by becoming the first woman President of the United States. Despite polls to the contrary McCaskill defeated the Vice President by a rather decisive margin. She only narrowly lost Nevada, Florida and Ohio -- becoming the first successful Presidential candidate since JFK to win the White House without carrying Ohio.

She made up for it in other areas. She held onto Virginia, proving it to be a trending Democratic state, as well as picking up her home state of Missouri as well as Colorado and Iowa.

2020 Election Results

√ Claire McCaskill/Cory Booker: 289 (50.8%)

Rick Perry/Charlie Crist: 249 (48.0%)

[NHI]

Epilogue:

2024:

√ Claire McCaskill/Cory Booker: 360 (53.6%)

Rand Paul/Tom Cotton: 178 (45.0%)

2028 Election:

√ Cory Booker/Gavin Newsom: 301 (50.7%)

Paul Ryan/Kelly Ayotte: 237 (48.2%)

Election of 2032:

√ Cory Booker/Gavin Newsom: 272 (49.5%)

Kelly Ayotte/Marco Rubio: 265 (49.4%)

2036: National Popular Vote Election

√ Marilinda Garcia/Tagg Romney: 49.5%

Gavin Newsom/Ross Miller: 47.9%

Other: 2.6%