I bet that two weeks after the DNC the race will be roughly where it was in early August, or around Obama +2, but with fewer undecideds. From that point the Romney strat will be simple. Use the money advantage on TV to tell a positive story and try to move the remaining persuadables, and let the party and the superpacs use their ginormous amount of money to run negative ads which should help both rally their own base and depress the vote of other undecideds and left leaning indies. That alone could return the race to about a tie. He then needs to win the debate season to put him over the top.
It's doable, but he is going against a headwind, which is why the betting still has Obama as a somewhat favorite.
All the above and ask the question: Are you better of than you were four year ago, and he wins this election, perhaps narrowly, but still wins it.
