Kerry "won" - No minds were changed say ABC poll

[ATFFL]

Who won..?

Kerry 45
Bush 36

Candidate Support

Before:

Bush 50
Kerry 46

After

Bush 51
Kerry 47

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/debate_poll_040930.html

Didn't the same thing happen four years ago with Gore?

Still, I don't like flash polls and I never will.

[ATFFL]

I think Bush won. Even if Kerry did better, which I guess he did since everyone else here seems to think so, the election is over unless Kerry can pull off something big, which he sure didn't do last night.

Kerry didn't have a big win, and perhaps it was not big enough to put him back in the lead in the polls--this time.  The next debate is on domestic policy, Kerry's turf.  I think he'll win it.  And that could boost him into a clear lead over Bush.

The next debate is the town hall style, followed by the somestic policy.  And less people will watch.

The next two debates are less about winning than they are about not giving your opponent a sound byte they can use to kill you.

[ATFFL]

There are 2 ways numbers improve after an event like the debate, a spike and a bounce.  A spike should appear in overnight samples and polls taken a day or two after the event.  Often these are artificial (see the CBS "poll" after the Edwards pick.)

The bounce comes after a week or so when the electorate has had time to internalize the event.   Sometimes the bounce is counterintuitive, like Kerry losing ground from his convention.   Sometimes it is overstated and has a lot of loose support that will not stick around much longer.