Another new state poll (Nevada)...

[ATFFL]

Hmm. . .  They oversampled Las Vegas by 10% and undersampled both parties by about 5% in the registered voters, thus oversampling independents by 10% (rounding making the discrepency.)

Looks to be a typical Republican summer fade poll.

[ATFFL]

1- The Republican fade is largely from the independents area of a poll.  Oversampling them will exaggerate the fade effect.

2- S-USA uses either a self identifier (do you consider yourself a . . . ) or asks what party they are registered (Are you regestired in . .  .) depending on client requests.  We're not sure which method wa sused, but S-USA prefers self identifiers.  I know the local NC polls done by them use the second method since the local stations want that.

3- Clark county has 62% of Nevada's registered voters.  If we include the bordering counties it goes up to 64%.  The poll has 72% from Clark County.  

4- Registered voters are what needs to be representative, since that is what we have data on.  We can check with the state to see how many people are registered in each party and get various breakdowns of where they are.

People who are not registered to vote are irrelevant to a poll as they cannot vote in the only poll that matters.  To survey them is a waste of time and money.

[ATFFL]

People who are not registered to vote are irrelevant to a poll as they cannot vote in the only poll that matters.  To survey them is a waste of time and money.

Not entirely correct if they register between the time of the poll and the last date that voters are allowed to register for the coming election.  In Nevada anyone who is a U.S. citizen, 18 years of age or older on or before the date of the election, and is not in prison or on parole for a felony conviction may register to vote.  The deadline to register is 15 days before the election, or October 18, 2004.  

I must add the caveat that previously unregistered voters are rarely a  factor in Presidential elections, but this election may hold a few surprises.

Agreed, but polls are meant to be a snapshot.  Future polls should reflect updated registration information.  Nevada updates its information monthly so current data is always available.

[ATFFL]

Kerry outpolled Bush by 13% in LV and Bush won the rest by 20%.  Now if we weight the poll to the actual voter registeration for the areas the total numbers change to Bush with 381 votes, Kerry with 376 votes, 29 for other and 19 undecided.  This is likely voter data.

Now we have numbers twice massaged, once to get to likely (becuse that is what is in the raw count for the areas on page 10 of the poll) and again by me to correct for voter registration.  It would be better if I had the raw numbers for registered voters, I could get it, but it is too much work.  I still have not weighted them to match the party registration.  I am normally against that, except where you have both parties underrepresented by such a large amount.  Though with S-USA's self identifier method they may have an accurate breakdown.


For those who want to see the party registration in Nevada:

http://sos.state.nv.us/nvelection/voter_reg/2004/0604main.htm

[ATFFL]

(Psst, you missed an "r" in my handle.)

Most of the epublicans moving into the mountain west region are from California.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002-10-28-gop-west-1acover_x.htm

EDIT:  I could retaliate and start calling you FreedomBuns, but that sounds like a new name for French rolls.

[ATFFL]

This is a better link to the nevada voter registration.   This is the index to look up data for the year.

http://sos.state.nv.us/nvelection/voter_reg/2004/index.htm


Looking there the Republican lead in an overwhelming 718 and trending downward.  The Dems have done a better job registering new voters.  The trick will be getting them to the polls come November.

[ATFFL]

In my math (perhaps a little old fashioned), the extrapolation of trends favors Bush.

How can you claim yours is a valid position when you see the polls and how they are trending this year?  See below:

freedomburns-

He's certainly gaining ground given that of the 2 certainly reliable polls from the state: the first showed him down 11 and the second, taken a couple of months later, showed him down 1.

The latest poll, even with possible oversampling of southern Nevada, shows a 4-5% shift to Kerry in the past six week.  Your analysis is flawed. (IMHO)

freedomburns

You are comparing apples to oranges when you compare two polls.  That is a bad habit to be in.

And, as I showed above, correcting the oversampling may render this poll a tie.  The interals are skewed to oversample a democratic area.

[ATFFL]

For those who want to see the Mason Dixon poll of Nevada:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Jul-25-Sun-2004/news/24381796.html