French referendum: exit poll in details

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When do they actually vote on this again?

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Umengus, is that last poll is of people like corporate executives and mid to high ranking public officials?

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Thanks for the polls.  I was wondering if Chirac saying voting "yes" was pro-American hegemony would have any effect.

BTW, "Did not say" or "No answer" would be a better translation than "Don't pronounce."

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C) Who will win?

-The "yes": 34% (-24)
-The "no": 53% (+18)
-without opinion: 13% (+5)

I find this very interesting.

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Does no one in France pay for a decent sample size?  What would it take to get one poll with 1500 people responding?  And no regional breakdowns?  I would love to see how the vote looks in different regions.

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Does no one in France pay for a decent sample size?  What would it take to get one poll with 1500 people responding?  And no regional breakdowns?  I would love to see how the vote looks in different regions.

1000 is a good sample I think. And in France, "regional breakdowns" are a heresy.

1000 is good, but I like a few larger ones mixed in.  A nice trackingpoll would be good too.

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Yay!  Some regional polls.  You da man, Umengus.

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Any new news?

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Comments of the pollster:

-It's the third inversion of tendency (is it english?)

-the "no" will be very strong at extreme (not a surprise).

-"no voter": popular and active
 "yes voter": 60+, rich people, skilled

-the social environment has lots of incidences. There is also a fear of tomorrow.

Let me help with some of the translation again.  I think "third inversion of a tendency" means "third change in the trend."  First "no" had all the momentum and "yes" was collapsing.  Then "yes" rebounded to get back to even or a slight lead.  Now "no" has the momentum again, or, at least, is firming up support.

I'm pretty sure he meant "extreme right" since the left wing seemst to be favoring "yes" or evenly split.

I'm not sure what he means by the no voters being popular.  Populist, maybe.  Not real sure here.

Not clear on "the social environment has lots of incidences. There is also a fear of tomorrow." either.    Could mean indicators showing how people will vote.  That people who are fearful of tomorrow are more or less likely to support the EU Constitution.

Thanks again for posting all of these polls.

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Extreme left too. There is a difference between extreme left and communists/socialists/green (I know, it's difficult to admit for you but it's Europe)

Oh, I know that.  You guys get some real whackos on either end out there.  Thought he meant just the righties since there was no extreme left in the partisan breakdown.

There are lots of social problems in France. This country is in crisis: look at unemployement ( officially +10%), insecurity in the streets ("cités"), immigration, justice, inequality between rich and poor,.... Lots of people think that the country is on a bad track. It was different before.

In fact, the French situation is the same than in Belgium. IMO, it's the best explanation to explain why Le pen was second in 2002. It's the best explanation to explain a part of the "no success" in France. But a part only.

Gotchya.  I was not clear on that was how the people were now percieving it since the government tries to give the impression everything is under control.  'course, all governments do that.

Like I said, you get some real characters out there.  THough a LePen victory would have lead to some interestng outcomes.  Like the US going to war with France over Iraq. 

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French in disarray as they admit EU treaty vote is lost

Just a little selection from the article:

THE leader of France’s ruling party has privately admitted that Sunday’s referendum on the European constitution will result in a “no” vote, throwing Europe into turmoil.

“The thing is lost,” Nicolas Sarkozy told French ministers during an ill-tempered meeting. “It will be a little ‘no’ or a big ‘no’,” he was quoted as telling Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the Prime Minister, whom he accused of leading a feeble campaign.

Although Europe would be thrown into disarray, the Government would be greatly relieved if M Sarkozy were right.

Ministers have privately told The Times that Britain is prepared to ditch its commitment to a referendum if France, or the Netherlands next Wednesday, vote against the constitution. They believe that if the French say “no”, President Chirac will have to declare the constitution dead or promise a renegotiation.