TX-SEN: True to Form

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The only reason I'm hesitating to rate this Safe R is because Trump is a moron and Cruz doesn't have much crossover appeal (unlike Abbott). I think this will basically be a CA-SEN 2010 redux, though.

Probably, although Cruz is about on par with Fiorina in the campaigning department.

Bad campaigners tend to win these days anyway. Case in point, the Trump/Clinton/Johnson/Stein race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Good on him for actually sticking to his three-term limit, unlike most Republicans who make the same pledge.

While you are right that every single Republican politician who talks about term limits breaks their promise, how is moving up to a higher office whose term is as long as his entire Congressional career to this point keeping a promise?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Beto O'Rourke says he's raised nearly $217,000 since announcing, with an average donation of $34.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/849019265491619840

That's already more than Ted's last opponent managed to raise. I personally think this race is likely R but I think after Flake and Heller this is the next place Dem's need to be looking at. You lose 100% of the races you don't contest.

Well, Ted's last opponent was some fat old former Blue Dog state senator from East Texas who had zero constituency or name recognition and hadn't held office since the '90s.

Too bad we didn't get the real race: Cruz vs. Kesha Rogers.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

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I get the feeling I'm gonna become a very big Beto O'Rourke fan by the end of the year.

Holy crap this guy is a boss

How old are you?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Im sorry but Trump at 60% disapproval an the reps are going to come close to winning 7 senate seats?

The American people view the Democratic Party AND the Republican Party both at 40% approval rating. In the end, the turnout will be depressed. The Bernie-bros, the young and minority voters, etc, will not turn out for a midterm and the Republicans likely loose only one seat in the Senate and a handful in the House.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

That could be a winning strategy. It'd make him look so nakedly partisan too, and it'd get him to come out and whine "leave Heidi the hell alone!" or something.