I agree with the principle in general that we shouldn't take early votes for general, but the consensus among the people I know who actually work for campaigns is that most of these early votes is that many were cast before Comeygate, whose impact is still unknown. Election day turnout and numbers will give us a good idea of what is happening.
A really terrible CNN poll is not the solidest of evidence for your little theory here champ.
CNN is an odd case, because they've been so anti-Trump (more so than any other network or media outlet IMO) and were certain of a Clintonslide until they decided they weren't certain and totally changed gears from constant Trump bashing to generic election year horserace nonsense. It's been hilariously satisfying to see them dangle in the wind, and I'm sure Clinton supporters who have now been through what Trump supporters have been through with the media understand.
This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.
Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year). While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.
Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.
The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.
I don't disagree with you on any of these points overall, but keep in mind, you yourself used the term "seem." Statistics and precedent back you up on that, but do we really know if there is a Bradley effect (for Hillary or for Trump) in play here? The question is, are there going to be more blue collar voters in North Florida thinking "crooked over crazy" or are there enough white collar, upper middle class voters in South Florida thinking "voted for Obama last time, but I don't like the problem around the XXX issue, therefore, I'll vote Trump?"
I just downright don't know. If there is a Bradley effect, I'd guess that it is most likely among #NeverTrump Republicans who have gotten the whole "11th Commandment" quip by Reagan beaten into their heads over the years from past primaries. There might not be one at all. It might be YUGE for Hillary or Trump. I just don't know. The fun partisan in me is bored, and the numbers nerd inside of me is starting to come out instead. I'm genuinely excited for this election win or lose just to see exactly how this plays out.
