FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4 (user search)
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  FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-PPP (2018): Nelson beats Scott by 4  (Read 1063 times)
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


« on: September 08, 2016, 12:01:02 AM »

Nelson's races always appear to be close in the beginning, then he wins by a million votes.

To be fair, he's gotten very lucky both with the national environment and with attracting seemingly-strong but actually quite weak opponents.
Very true. A strong candidate like Tom Rooney or Jeff Atwater would beat him.
Not to mention his last two elections were Democrat waves: 2006, 2012
Unless Ron DeSantis runs, I can't see anyone beating Nelson.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2016, 12:18:11 PM »

I'm a bit worried about this seat, but I think Rick Scott is really quite none.  I never understood his appeal.  The Rs should go with -- hmm, maybe Florida Republicans don't have that much of a bench after all?
Bill Nelson is probably the only political figure in Florida who transcends politics to remain (relatively) popular among Floridians. He really is our only "old guard" figure left who has clout in Washington and has made it clear that he holds no national ambitions. He always appears vulnerable but either draws weak opponents (Mack '12) or wins in a wave year (Harris '06). The bench of the Florida Republican Party is strong, but Nelson is the only major Democrat in Florida who can hold his own against it. Hence why people like Putnam, Atwater, DeSantis, CLC, etc, are looking at the Governors mansion or the row offices whereas only Rick Scott is seriously interested in the Senate seat.

Personally, I think Atwater and Putnam go for Governor (Putnam wins easily) while DeSantis goes either for AG or for the Senate (more likely the former), CLC to Atwater's position as CFO, while Bondi likely sits out the cycle all together in the hopes of eventually getting into Congress or some other form of elected office.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2016, 12:24:29 PM »

Bold prediction: Nelson looks unbeatable in 2017 so the only "major" candidate who runs is Carlos Beruff. However, Clinton is so unpopular and the upcoming wave is so large that Beruff surges in August of 2018 and rides the 2018 GOP national landslide to victory.
Beruff won't run against Scott, though. Scott actually praised Beruff repeatedly throughout the campaign and while not endorsing him, he made it clear where his loyalties were. Otherwise, I'd say your prediction is actually very close to what could happen.
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