FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Donald J. Trump ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump
Poll data shows that @marcorubio does by far the best in holding onto his Senate seat in Florida. Important to keep the MAJORITY. Run Marco!
9:09 PM - 26 May 2016

Will this get Rubio in the race?

I like to think Rubio was considering entering the race, saw this tweet, and then called the NRSC and told them to go f**k themselves.

This isn't going to sit well with the others.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't care about his approval ratings right now. Rubio would by far be the best Republican candidate against Murphy or Grayson.

Stop trying to make Rubio happen. Rubio is not happening.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The people convincing Rubio he'd be a lock if he ran again are the same people who convinced him he'd be a lock if he ran for president. lol

^^^^^

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

^^ Graham will be primaried. He only got 56% against a bunch of no-names in 2014, and always polled terribly in SC presidential primary polls.

That is what everyone said in 2014 and he won easily. He has a firm hold on the state GOP which is why only nominal candidates ran against him.

I'm not so sure. Had he had a major challenger with united opposition support, he'd be finished. He was fortunate enough to have eight primary opponents in 2014.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

You are over-confident, and really.

No. Keep on building that Graham myth up though. It'll only help Putnam.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

While I agree with Sanchez that Graham is overrated (B-B-BUT SHE WON IN 2014!!1!) , I must say that he's also way too confident about Republican chances of holding Rubio's seat this year.

No, I'm certain that the Senate race is a tossup. I've never said that Murphy could lose, though I have said that he's overrated and that you continually underestimate the talent that the GOP has centralized whereas Democratic victories in the state tend to come not from their state apparatus but rather from their individual campaigns.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rubio's not gonna run unless CLC drops out too. Jolly leaving the race won't change much besides the composition of the polls.

I visited briefly with one of the Senate candidates campaign managers on Friday (not naming names) and the answer I received on Rubio is that there is little buzz outside of the media hype. The party certainly isn't begging him to run, that's for sure.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rubio's not gonna run unless CLC drops out too. Jolly leaving the race won't change much besides the composition of the polls.

I visited briefly with one of the Senate candidates campaign managers on Friday (not naming names) and the answer I received on Rubio is that there is little buzz outside of the media hype. The party certainly isn't begging him to run, that's for sure.

Are we talking about the State party or the National one? Because the latter certainly is begging him to run.

The state party. They'd be happy to have him, but they aren't desperate for him either. Reports of internal dissatisfaction with Jolly, DeSantis, CLC and so forth are greatly exaggerated.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

About two weeks ago, former Congressional and Senate candidate Dan Bongino from Maryland was in FL-22 talking about a possible campaign for Congress in FL-18. Now he suddenly has decided to run for Clawson's seat on the west coast. He's been in Florida for like less than a year. Carpetbagging POS.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

About two weeks ago, former Congressional and Senate candidate Dan Bongino from Maryland was in FL-22 talking about a possible campaign for Congress in FL-18. Now he suddenly has decided to run for Clawson's seat on the west coast. He's been in Florida for like less than a year. Carpetbagging POS.

Any good Republican candidates for FL-18? It's a rare pickup opportunity for the GOP this year, but I think there's a ton of people running. Since you seem to know a lot, who do you think will get the nomination? And how do you rate the general?

Also, the GOP really, really, REALLY needs to coalesce around one of the three establishment candidates if Rubio doesn't jump back in. They can't afford to let Beruff win the nomination and blow this seat.

FL-18 is a neat district-the most interesting race in Florida, IMO. It's a lean GOP district, yet Patrick Murphy took a 0.8% victory in 2012 and turned it into a 20% one in 2014-a year in which he was among the most, if not the most endangered incumbent in the nation. He's a gifted retail politician and quickly immersed himself into a district in which he wasn't from until the year he was elected. He might be slightly overrated as a statewide candidate, but he certainly isn't one to underestimate.

Personally, I want Rebecca Negron to be the nominee. She's a longtime community activist and a School Board member. Her husband is slated to be the State Senate President next year, and the two of them have been involved politically in the area for years. She's not the favorite of the base, however, though she is still widely liked from what I can tell from anecdotal evidence. Her common core position is her biggest strength.

Sadly, many GOP primary voters in the area seem to lean towards Brian Mast, who basically is Allen West without the legs (literally, he's an IED survivor and a war hero) and with slightly turned down rhetoric. Those active within the Palm Beach and Martin County GOP organization seem to prefer him or Kozell, who used to be President of the Republican Club that I was formally a member of. He was, of course, on hand to campaign when I saw Bongino. Then there is that woman from Fox News, Noelle Nikpour, who seems to have a lot of traction on the various Tea Party FB pages but from what I can tell doesn't have any campaign infrastructure in place what-so-ever. She's sort of a wild card in that regard, and I think the less she campaigns, the better Mast does.

Then there are the others (like farmer Rick Roth, perennial candidate and 2014 nominee Carl Domino, former FL-22 '14 nominee Paul Spain, and Mark Freeman, who is self funding his bid) who are the middle/lower tier candidates.

The Democrats are more or less united behind Randy Perkins, a Republican-turned-Democrat millionaire who donated to Scott. Oddly enough, Beruff was the same in the sense that he, while always a Republican as far as I know, remained loyal to Crist for years. That is hurting him now. Anywho, some more progressive minded businessman named Chane is running and has a respectable war chest. I suspect the Democratic primary will be much quieter.

About two weeks ago, former Congressional and Senate candidate Dan Bongino from Maryland was in FL-22 talking about a possible campaign for Congress in FL-18. Now he suddenly has decided to run for Clawson's seat on the west coast. He's been in Florida for like less than a year. Carpetbagging POS.

...you know that two thirds of the state population would count as carpetbaggers, right? People move to Florida for better lives and opportunities; I don't see why that shouldn't apply to politicians when it applies to everyone else.

He can run in Florida, sure, but I think it's shameless that in the last year he's been looking at any electoral opportunity available to him. He started talking up a Senate bid the day he got down here, then flirted with FL-18 and FL-22, and now is heading to the other side of the state to run over there. He's here for one and one reason alone: he has nowhere further to go in Maryland.   

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So my internship ended suddenly today (I wasn't fired but I'm being replaced since my boss owes someone a favor and there isn't room for two interns) so no more Sanchez-leaks for the time being . He said he's gonna get me hooked up with the RPOF, but it looks hazy.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Isn't the House seat Crist is running for a safe D seat? Why would Jolly volunteer to be slaughtered there?

Apparently polls (pretty sure they were internals) showed Jolly could still compete against Crist.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article82299122.html

Gwen Margolis sure has been and still is a rather nasty old shrew.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Rubio runs for reelection because of this, he is officially a lower, scummier form of life than Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

I think it's more likely that he uses this attack as an excuse to relaunch his career in the form of a gubernatorial campaign. I didn't think he'd run at all in 2018 until the recent Senate chatter, and that doesn't change the fact that Putnam will have the money, the conservative base, some pretty solid unused research, and the backing (unofficially) of the RPOF itself plus pretty much all of the row officers and most of the non South Florida legislators.

Rubio isn't going to be living a mile up Brevard Street from me in January 2019, but he might try for it. If he does, he's more nakedly ambitious and stupid than I thought.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I think it's more likely that he uses this attack as an excuse to relaunch his career in the form of a gubernatorial campaign. I didn't think he'd run at all in 2018 until the recent Senate chatter, and that doesn't change the fact that Putnam will have the money, the conservative base, some pretty solid unused research, and the backing (unofficially) of the RPOF itself plus pretty much all of the row officers and most of the non South Florida legislators.

Nah, he's not running for governor.  It's another run for president in 2020 (assuming Trump loses this November) or bust.  *Maybe* he also reverses himself and runs for Senate again this year.  But I don't see him running for governor.

Never underestimate Marco's capacity for stupidity and ambition. If he thinks his chances will be better in 2020 if he runs for Governor, he will risk and all and run in a primary that he is destined to lose. If not, he still runs in 2020.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The following tweets are from Peter Schorsch, one of Florida's best political journalists.

Chess pieces of #FlaPol being moved around the board tonight to make it easier for @MarcoRubio to run for re-election … /1

...lots of chatter about if @MarcoRubio runs for re-election, Carlos @LopezCantera will run for Florida CFO in 2018. … /2

... several donors with overlapping affinities to @MarcoRubio & @LopezCantera say if CLC drops, they’ll back the LG for CFO in 2018 … /3

...none of that is coming from @MarcoRubio himself of course and there’s no quid pro quo, but a gentle landing is being lined up for CLC ...

...also lots of chatter about if @marcoRubio runs for re-election, @RonDeSantisFL won’t run again for CD 6, but will run for AG in 2018 … /5

...of course @BradHerold has to deny this, but DeSantis for A.G. is real. ... (NOTE, Herold is DeSantis's campaign manager and a friend of mine. I haven't spoken to him about the campaign at all lately since he visited my office a few weeks ago, and we mostly talked about stuff in our personal lives-obviously this stays on Atlas).

...one six-figure donor to @MarcoRubio says Senator’s biggest hesitancy is not OK from wife, but running on same ticket as @RealDonaldTrump.

I have been out of the office for a week as of today, so I don't know what's going on anymore. Last I heard, there was no indication of Rubio running again but the chatter is starting to sound a bit more serious. I think he is looking at it. He better not run and if he does, I pray that DeSantis stays in. He can possibly outflank Rubio (the dude lost his home state by twenty points) and win, and even if Rubio does win, nothing prevents DeSantis from running for AG or Senator in 2018.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The following tweets are from Peter Schorsch, one of Florida's best political journalists.

Chess pieces of #FlaPol being moved around the board tonight to make it easier for @MarcoRubio to run for re-election … /1

...lots of chatter about if @MarcoRubio runs for re-election, Carlos @LopezCantera will run for Florida CFO in 2018. … /2

... several donors with overlapping affinities to @MarcoRubio & @LopezCantera say if CLC drops, they’ll back the LG for CFO in 2018 … /3

...none of that is coming from @MarcoRubio himself of course and there’s no quid pro quo, but a gentle landing is being lined up for CLC ...

...also lots of chatter about if @marcoRubio runs for re-election, @RonDeSantisFL won’t run again for CD 6, but will run for AG in 2018 … /5

...of course @BradHerold has to deny this, but DeSantis for A.G. is real. ... (NOTE, Herold is DeSantis's campaign manager and a friend of mine. I haven't spoken to him about the campaign at all lately since he visited my office a few weeks ago, and we mostly talked about stuff in our personal lives-obviously this stays on Atlas).

...one six-figure donor to @MarcoRubio says Senator’s biggest hesitancy is not OK from wife, but running on same ticket as @RealDonaldTrump.

I have been out of the office for a week as of today, so I don't know what's going on anymore. Last I heard, there was no indication of Rubio running again but the chatter is starting to sound a bit more serious. I think he is looking at it. He better not run and if he does, I pray that DeSantis stays in. He can possibly outflank Rubio (the dude lost his home state by twenty points) and win, and even if Rubio does win, nothing prevents DeSantis from running for AG or Senator in 2018.

Doesn't Rick Scott already have dibs on 2018 Senate?

Apparently. He isn't exactly a strong candidate and he isn't a very unifying figure. A lot of people in the party don't care for him either, though they are more than willing to unite around him in the end because he isn't an asshole like Rubio.

I think Scott needs to retire. He isn't really fit personality wise for politics as it stands and I don't see him being an effective Senator at all. He waffles a lot, but not in a nuanced way. He's way too indecisive on even big issues like Medicaid Expansion. He needs to retire off into the sunset, enjoy time with his wife and grandkids, and build a new mansion somewhere.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I hope Murphy crushes him

Me too. He doesn't deserve reelection as it is, and he is exploiting a terrorist attack to shameless relaunch his career.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I hope Murphy crushes him

Me too. He doesn't deserve reelection as it is, and he is exploiting a terrorist attack to shameless relaunch his career.

Eeewww. Priviledged Patrick. Also, he's 33. I'm scared that if he wins, he'll become entrenched, and 40 years from now or so (if Democrats have the Senate Majority) he'll be PPT.

Nah, he'll give up his seat to run for POTUS in 2028.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I hope Murphy crushes him

Me too. He doesn't deserve reelection as it is, and he is exploiting a terrorist attack to shameless relaunch his career.

Eeewww. Priviledged Patrick. Also, he's 33. I'm scared that if he wins, he'll become entrenched, and 40 years from now or so (if Democrats have the Senate Majority) he'll be PPT.

Nah, he'll give up his seat to run for POTUS in 2028.

No. He'll look at Rubio, and avoid running for President in a year when his seat is up. I know he's not that stupid. If Murphy wins, Republicans will likely lose Florida's Class 3 seat for good.

He might run in 2020. He might run in 2024. He might run in 2028. He might run in 2032. Who knows? My point is, he isn't going to be a lifer. I just don't see it.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

There was talk about Jolly dropping out long before Rubio reentered the race. They started talking this up  after Rick Baker (the people who I worked for were very involved in drafting him, and I overheard them on a phone conference discussing his potential run once) declined. I wouldn't read too much into this. He's been the "ghost front-runner" this whole time, polling high but with little active support or infrastructure on the ground. CLC and DeSantis have a much better ground game and more momentum.

Could this mean that Rubio is running? Possibly,  but Castro is right-just as Rubio is exploiting a tragedy to seek reelection, Jolly is exploiting Rubio's hype to bow out.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rubio's all but in, and potential announcement sites are being scoped.

If he comes to Tallahassee, he can expect at least one heckler who is going to dish .

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Should we contact Stone about our past...investigations...or do you think he knows all of what we know and more? I suspect he does.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If I were Rubio I would just lay low for a year or two and then ramp up the 2020 campaign. I don't think he's favored in a general election senate race, and losing would be the end of his political career.

Yes, but Marco is retarded, you see.