United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

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Here are maps of 2019 notional results (the first is shaded by the winners' margin of victory, the second by the winners' share of the vote):





I can't help thinking of Peter Mansbridge's remarks at the start of election night in 1993, when party standings at dissolution came on the screen: "Take a good look at those numbers, because it's unlikely you'll see them ever looking like that again . . . "

Boundaries come from afleitch's new map; my thanks.

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No, 40% would actually be a (small) fall for Labour from their 2019 GE showing.

The same poll also shows not just Labour slightly improving its Senedd position (both in the direct and list votes) but Gething's personal rating markedly up on their previous survey.

Please make it make sense

What was the popular vote in Wales in the 2019 election?

Labour on 40.9%, Tories on 36.1%.

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Damn Reform is really surging in the polls. I guess bringing back Farage worked out, and with each day we inch closer to recreating the 1993 Canadian election...

David McLaughlin's Poisoned Chalice has made good re-reading lately.