Next Nova Scotia general election

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Vote change in the 15 Liberal ridings with incumbents running:

Lib - 45.8% to 43.9% (-2%) (5 seats lost)
PC - 28.6% to 32.3% (+4%) (4 seats gained)
NDP - 21.9% to 21.5% (-0%) (1 seat gained)


And in the 15 open Liberal ridings:

Lib - 48.2% to 40.3% (-8%) (9 seats lost)
PC - 29.9% to 39.2% (+9%) (9 seats gained)
NDP - 18.5% to 17.3% (-1%)

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P.C share of vote, was up in 36 ridings and down in 19.  Most notably the P.Cs dropped in Cape Breton and somewhat oddly two of the 3 Pictou ridings.

Those areas saw huge Tory increases four years ago (+21% in CB and +16% in Pictou); the net change from 2013 to now (+11% in CB and +16% in Pictou) is a little more in line with their overall rise across the province (+12%).

Although all the Tory majorities are down in all three Pictou ridings, their vote share is slightly up in two of the three (53% to 56% in Centre & 63% to 64% in West); Tim Houston's vote is the only one that's gone down (albeit from 74% to 70%). As with the rest of the rural mainland, the NDP vote continues to slip away.

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As usual, swings in various directions; 42 between PCs & Liberals, 10 between NDP & Liberals, two between PCs & NDP and one between Independent & PCs.

Twelve seats swung from Tory to Liberal: four in Cape Breton, five in Metro and three on the mainland (specifically, Pictou County).

Biggest PC-Lib swing: Northside - Westmount (26.3%) (the only Liberal gain)
Biggest PC-Lib swing without the seat changing hands: Cape Breton East (16.0%)
Biggest PC-Lib swing in a Liberal-held seat: Cole Harbour - Dartmouth (6.4%)


Thirty seats swung from Liberal to Conservative, most of them on the rural mainland but a few in HRM suburbs and even a couple in Cape Breton.

Biggest Lib-PC swing: Digby - Annapolis (21.7%) (PC gain)
Biggest Lib-PC swing without the seat changing hands: Annapolis (16.9%)
Biggest Lib-PC swing in a Tory-held seat: Cumberland South (19.3%)


Eight seats swung from Liberal to NDP, all of them in Metro.

Biggest Lib-NDP swing: Dartmouth South (14.5%) (NDP held)
Biggest Lib-NDP swing without the seat changing hands: Fairview - Clayton Park (4.8%)


Two seats swung from NDP to Liberal, both in Cape Breton: Sydney - Membertou (10.5%) & Cape Breton Centre - Whitney Pier (3.9%). The Liberals already held the former, and came close to gaining the latter.


The two seats to swing from NDP to Tory were the two ridings flipped in by-elections: Sackville - Cobequid (14.8%) & Truro - Bible Hill - etc. (21.6%). The PC majority in Sackville was actually larger than that in the by-election.


Overall, Liberals dropped to third in two ridings (Glace Bay - Dominion & Sackville - Cobequid) while the NDP dropped to third in three (Pictou West, Chester - St. Margaret's & Truro). Tories fell to fourth in Cumberland North.

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Looking purely at Tories vs New Democrats, 32 ridings swung to the Tories while 23 (including Cumberland North) shifted to the NDP. All but four of the latter were in Cape Breton & Metro, the exceptions being Kings North (held by the PCs, NDP third), Hants East (gained by the PCs, NDP third), Pictou East (held by the PCs, NDP third) and the aforementioned Cumberland North (PC to Independent, NDP third).

Of the twenty-one Metro ridings, twelve swung from PCs to NDP while nine swung Tory. Those nine can be broken down thus:

Three Liberal seats, NDP in third place: Cole Harbour - Dartmouth, Hammonds Plains - Lucasville & Timberlea - Prospect
Three Liberal seats, NDP in second place: Halifax Armdale, Halifax Atlantic & Preston
Two Tory seats, NDP in third place: Eastern Passage & Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank
One NDP seat where Tories went from third to first: Sackville - Cobequid

Most of those are on the outer edges of the main urban area; Armdale & Atlantic are a little unusual in that the Tories started in third place (and remained there) but their vote rose more than the NDP's did. Metro seats where the NDP was in third place but their vote rose more than the PCs' were more the norm, as that happened six times (Bedford Basin, Bedford South, Clayton Park West, Cole Harbour, Dartmouth East & Sackville - Uniacke). The NDP almost beat the Tories for second place in Clayton Park West & Cole Harbour, but didn't quite get there.


As for Cape Breton, seven of eight seats swung from PCs to NDP, Richmond being the only exception (where the NDP also dropped from third to fourth, behind Alana Paon).

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Official counts conducted today, though it appears that only the figures for Antigonish & Halifax Atlantic have changed at all.

Have updated the datafile for NS Elections from 1925 to the present: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing

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Cape Breton (8 ridings)
Total Votes: 61,822
Liberal: 24,696  39.9%
P.C:      23,679  38.3
NDP:    12,865  20.8
Green:        72
Other:       510

Even being aware of the vagaries of first past the post, I find it hard to believe the Liberals received the most votes on Cape Breton but lost in seats 5-2 to the P.Cs.

Unusual indeed; seems to come down to very poor third-place Tory showings in both Sydney - Membertou & Cape Breton - Whitney Pier, combined with fairly marginal Tory wins in Glace Bay - Dominion, Richmond & Cape Breton East, along with sharply reduced Tory majorities in every seat they previously held (including Cape Breton East) and the loss of Northside - Westmount on a huge swing.

Allan MacMaster & Keith Bain (two long-standing MLAs) suffered much smaller swings against them than Murray Ryan & Brian Comer (the 2019 by-election winners); had Alfie MacLeod & Eddie Orrell, the two previous members, not ventured into federal politics I wonder what the vote on the Island would have looked like.


One question: you count 22 ridings in the Metro area while I count 21; am curious as to the one on which we differ. The ones I include are as follows:

Lib (11): Bedford Basin, Bedford South, Clayton Park West, Cole Harbour, Cole Harbour - Dartmouth, Fairview - Clayton Park, Halifax Armdale, Halifax Atlantic, Hammonds Plains - Lucasville, Preston, Timberlea - Prospect

PC (5): Dartmouth East, Eastern Passage, Sackville - Cobequid, Sackville - Uniacke, Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank

NDP (5): Dartmouth North, Dartmouth South, Halifax Chebucto, Halifax Citadel, Halifax Needham

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Looking only at the eighteen ridings to change hands, here's the vote share:

Lib: 40.7% to 34.9% (-6%), 13 net losses (+1, -14)
PC: 35.5% to 41.5% (+6%), 13 net gains (+15, -2)
NDP: 21.4% to 17.9% (-4%), 1 net loss (+1, -2)
Other: 2.4% to 5.7% (+3%), 1 gain

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I'd mentioned earlier that Colton LeBlanc's showing in Argyle was one of the best of all time (for any party); here's how he stands against the other biggest individual victories in NS:


Largest Margin of Victory (%)
69.8% - Paul MacEwan (Lib) in Cape Breton Nova (1993)
69.4% - Frank Corbett (NDP) in Cape Breton Centre (2009)
68.1% - Zach Churchill (Lib) in Yarmouth (2013)
68.0% - Colton LeBlanc (PC) in Argyle (2021)
65.9% - Geoff MacLellan (Lib) in Glace Bay (2013)
65.4% - Murray Scott (PC) in Cumberland South (2006)

Largest Share of the Vote
82.4% - Colton LeBlanc (PC) in Argyle (2021)
82.3% - Zach Churchill (Lib) in Yarmouth (2013)
82.2% - Paul MacEwan (Lib) in Cape Breton Nova (1993)
80.4% - Geoff MacLellan (Lib) in Glace Bay (2013)
80.1% - Frank Corbett (NDP) in Cape Breton Centre (2009)


Looking purely at Tory candidates, their previous record for largest vote share was 77.0% for Neil LeBlanc in Argyle in 1999.

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Here are polling graphs for the last few campaigns, as well as for the years between elections:

2009-2013 (NDP government)


2013 (Liberal victory)


2013-2017 (Liberal government)


2017 (Liberal victory)


2017-2021 (Liberal government, followed by PC victory)



With so few polls taken during the most recent campaign, I skipped a separate graph for that & just combined it with the last four years.

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Here are the tipping-point ridings for this election & past ones - tipping point for a majority, I should stress:



Interesting that the winner in said riding has been a first-time MLA for the last nine elections (though understandable for a newly-elected government or a minority).

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And here are graphs showing the success of incumbent governments in retaining seats.

2013


2017


2021



Colored bars paralleling each axis reflect the approximate provincewide swing, to compare with how effective the opposition's targeting of marginals was.

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Recount complete; John White still holds the riding, now by 29 votes.

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Government sworn in today.

Tim Houston (Pictou East): Premier/Exec/Intergov Affairs, Trade
Allan MacMaster (Inverness): Deputy Premier, Finance/Treasury Board, Labour Relations
Pat Dunn (Pictou Centre): Communities/Culture/Tourism/Heritage, African-Nova Scotian Affairs
John Lohr (Kings North): Municipal Affairs/Housing, Emergency Management
Karla MacFarlane (Pictou West): Community Services, L'nu Affairs
Barbara Adams (Eastern Passage): Seniors/Long-term Care
Tim Halman (Dartmouth East): Environment/Climate Change, Chair of Treasury/Policy Board
Kim Masland (Queens): Public Works
Brad Johns (Sackville - Uniacke): Attorney General/Justice, Provincial Secretary
Tory Rushton (Cumberland South): Natural Resources/Renewables
Steve Craig (Sackville - Cobequid): Fisheries/Aquaculture
Colton LeBlanc (Argyle): Public Service Commission, Service NS/Internal, Acadian/Francophonie
Brian Comer (Cape Breton East): Communications, Mental Health/Addictions
Michelle Thompson (Antigonish): Health/Wellness
Jill Balser (Digby - Annapolis): Labour/Skills/Immigration
Greg Morrow (Guysborough - Tracadie): Agriculture
Susan Corkum-Greek (Lunenburg): Economic Development
Becky Druhan (Lunenburg West): Education/Childhood
Brian Wong (Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank): Advanced Education

Of the twelve Tory backbenchers, nine are freshmen - Larry Harrison (Colchester - Musquodoboit Valley), Keith Bain (Victoria - The Lakes) & Dave Ritcey (Truro - Bible Hill - etc.) are the only ones with experience in the legislature.

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On the subject of members' longevity, there are now only two Liberals who've been in the House since before the Grit victory in 2013 (Churchill & Regan), and eight who've only been in the House during the Liberal administration (including Rankin). Seven are new.

As for the New Democrats, only one (Gary Burrill) was first elected before 2017, and two are new.

The Tories have two members (Bain & Dunn) who were around during the MacDonald government, though neither have served continuously since then (Bain lost in 2013 & came back in 2017, while Dunn lost in 2009 & got back in in 2013). Fifteen were first elected two weeks ago, of which six are now in the Government.

Overall, the MLA with the longest continuous service is Kelly Regan (Bedford Basin), who's been in since 2009. Keith Bain & Pat Dunn were first elected in 2006, but have had periods of being out of the House in the meantime.

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On the subject of members' longevity, there are now only two Liberals who've been in the House since before the Grit victory in 2013 (Churchill & Regan), and eight who've only been in the House during the Liberal administration (including Rankin). Seven are new.

As for the New Democrats, only one (Gary Burrill) was first elected before 2017, and two are new.

The Tories have two members (Bain & Dunn) who were around during the MacDonald government, though neither have served continuously since then (Bain lost in 2013 & came back in 2017, while Dunn lost in 2009 & got back in in 2013). Fifteen were first elected two weeks ago, of which six are now in the Government.

Overall, the MLA with the longest continuous service is Kelly Regan (Bedford Basin), who's been in since 2009. Keith Bain & Pat Dunn were first elected in 2006, but have had periods of being out of the House in the meantime.

Apologies if this has already been announced, but I presume Keith Bain is the most likely candidate to be Speaker?

Correct you are.