Next Nova Scotia general election

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Doesn't look like much of a change overall from the last election if the latest polls are to be believed, with Liberals likely to make some gains in Cape Breton but drop a couple on the mainland.

Prediction (+/-2):
Liberals - 29
Conservatives - 20
New Democrats - 6

(Notional 2017 results gave the Liberals 30 MLAs, the Tories 18 and the NDP 7; if anything the redistribution to restore the old protected ridings is what will preserve the Liberal majority.)

Voted early this morning; Halifax Citadel - Sable Island is my constituency.

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One thing to keep in mind is that elections are more "personality based" in Atlantic Canada so being an incumbent is often a big advantage. A LOT of Liberals are not running for re-election meaning that a number of seats that "on paper" look like easy Liberal holds are actually more like tossups because with no incumbent all bets are off. 

Quite true, particularly in NS (though less so in HRM). Another reason for the Liberals hanging onto their majority last time: almost all their rural MLAs re-offered.

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Tories even leading in their Sackville by-election gain, albeit with only two polling stations in. Given their narrow win there two years ago, I wasn't sure they'd keep it, but it looks like they might.

Truro looks to be going Tory pretty handily, which isn't a surprise at all.

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First declaration - Kim Masland holds Queens for the Tories.

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Tories even leading in their Sackville by-election gain, albeit with only two polling stations in. Given their narrow win there two years ago, I wasn't sure they'd keep it, but it looks like they might.

Truro looks to be going Tory pretty handily, which isn't a surprise at all.

How did the NDP ever win Truro?

In 2009 they grabbed a lot of mainland ridings, but in Truro the Tory incumbent didn't re-offer & the NDP had a fairly prominent candidate in Lenore Zann. Once she left for Ottawa it was pretty likely the Tories would win it back.

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Smith-McCrossin takes the lead in Cumberland North

Tories also look to be winning Richmond, even with their old MLA running as an Independent (also a poor third) and boundary changes making it a nominal Liberal seat.

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Last time the Liberals went in with a big lead and saw it cut to 'barely-sufficient' levels; here, they started out with a decent lead and it looks to have disappeared entirely. Even if the Grits did really well in early voting it'll be hard for them to recover from where they are right now.

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Didn't expect this, but am pleased. I would like it to be a harbinger of next month's vote, but am not that optimistic.

Still, the federal Grits must be at least a little concerned right now.

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If the PC wins this after the Liberals started off so strong, what are the main reasons?

Rankin lost the plot with bad stories in the first week and never recovered (firing a candidate for having an OnlyFans, and telling her to lie and say she was resigning due to mental health among others) and never recovered

Were there any issues with the platform? Did the PC focus on healthcare maybe help?

No on the first count, definitely yes on the second.

Maritime healthcare is generally awful and the Tories outflanked the Liberals on it, particularly on rural healthcare.

That strategy paid off for them in Cape Breton four years ago; now looks to have helped them on the mainland.

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First non-PC declaration: New Democrats hold Dartmouth South.

Glace Bay remains a close three-way race, with NDP leading Tories by ten votes.

Only three polls in from Chebucto, but Gary Burrill is actually trailing by seven; will be shocked if that actually holds, though.

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First non-PC declaration: New Democrats hold Dartmouth South.

Glace Bay remains a close three-way race, with NDP leading Tories by ten votes.

Only three polls in from Chebucto, but Gary Burrill is actually trailing by seven; will be shocked if that actually holds, though.

NDP also declared winners in Dartmouth North and Halifax Needham

And now the Liberals have their first declaration: Iain Rankin holds Timberlea - Prospect.

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Gary Burrill back in the lead in Chebucto for the NDP, but Labi Kousoulis now trailing in Citadel. Didn't expect this to happen, but it looks like I may get a new MLA.

Tories now hovering just below a majority, with Chester & Sackville going away from them.

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Looking like the Liberals are doing better in Cape Breton? They might actually pick up Northside-Westmount from the PCs

Boundary changes turned that into an NDP riding, but either way the Liberals are gaining it.


Edit: Whoops! Don't know what riding I was looking at there. You're quite right, and with an incumbent Tory running again too (albeit a by-election winner).

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Steve Craig back in the lead in Sackville - Cobequid; if he holds on, then the Tories have kept both by-election gains. For that matter, every by-election winner except one (Murray Ryan in Northside - Westmount) has held on.

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Question about the lack of fixed election dates in NS...couldn't a premier in theory just never call an election to hold on to power?

The Constitution gives a limit of five years; sometimes they wait the full five (like Dick Hatfield in New Brunswick back in 1987).

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Turnout may be better than expected: counts have completed in four ridings, and the number of votes cast is up appreciably in three of them (Clare, Hants West & Lunenberg West; down in Northside - Westmount).

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Glace Bay count complete, and John White has gained it for the Tories by 33 votes.

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Fairview - Clayton Park count complete too, with Patricia Arab keeping it for the Grits after trailing for most of the night.

NDP now down in both MLAs and vote share from the last election.

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A few polls still left to come in (one in Cumberland North, one in Dartmouth South, two in Halifax Chebucto & seven in Halifax Citadel) but the picture's complete enough to look at a regional breakdown:

Cape Breton
Lib - 39.9% (+7%), 2 MLAs (-1)
PC - 38.3% (-10%), 5 MLAs (+1)
NDP - 20.8% (+3), 1 MLA

Metro
Lib - 39.0% (-2%), 11 MLAs (-1)
NDP - 30.8% (+3%), 5 MLAs
PC - 27.3% (+1%), 5 MLAs (+1)

East Mainland
PC - 51.5% (+5%), 10 MLAs (+4)
Lib - 28.6% (-5%), 0 MLAs (-4)
NDP - 12.7% (-6%), 0 MLAs (-1)

(Excluding Cumberland North, the Tory vote is up 10%, Grits down 5% & NDP down 6%)

West Mainland
PC - 45.1% (+13%), 11 MLAs (+7)
Lib - 37.7% (-9%), 4 MLAs (-7)
NDP - 13.8% (-4%)


Biggest margins of victory (%):
PC - Colton LeBlanc wins Argyle by 3014 (68.0%)
Lib - Brendan Maguire wins Halifax Atlantic by 2473 (32.4%)
NDP - Claudia Chender wins Dartmouth South by 2606 (36.0%)

Largest vote shares:
PC - Colton LeBlanc wins Argyle with 82.4%
Lib - Zach Churchill wins Yarmouth with 56.3%
NDP - Suzy Hansen wins Halifax Needham with 59.0%

The Tory vote in Argyle (82.4%) is a new record, beating the 2013 Liberal vote in Yarmouth (82.3%).

Average margin of victory (%):
PC - 20.2% (down from 23.4%)
Lib - 16.2% (up from 15.8%)
NDP - 18.7% (up from 11.1%)
Overall - 18.8% (up from 18.7%)

Average vote share (winning candidates):
PC - 51.4% (down from 53.8%)
Lib - 47.7% (up from 46.7%)
NDP - 50.7% (up from 44.1%)
Overall - 50.2% (up from 49.5%)


Breaking down constituencies into safe (>25%), moderate (10-25%) & marginal (<10%), here's how they look:
PC - 8 / 13 / 10
Lib - 4 / 9 / 4
NDP - 2 / 2 / 2
Overall - 14 / 25 / 16

The percentage of safe seats has remained constant for three elections in a row.


Overall, we've gone from a very efficient Liberal vote four years ago to a very efficient Tory vote yesterday.

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Glace Bay gives the CBC enough info to call it a PC majority.

Glace Bay hasn't gone for the PC's in nearly 40 years. Wow.

They came close four years ago, jumping from 5% (75% behind the Liberals) to 41% (only 5% behind); the biggest-ever swing that didn't result in a seat changing hands.

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Looking at both first- and second-place finishes, here's how things stand:

Lib - 96.4% (17 winners, 36 runners-up) (up from 96.1%)
PC - 78.2% (31 winners, 12 runners-up) (up from 72.5%)
NDP - 23.6% (6 winners, 7 runners-up) (down from 31.4%)

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Question:
Does the riding of Argyle overlap with the federal riding of West Nova?

Yes (which is why Chris d'Entremont ran there two years ago).

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With all the preliminary counts completed, here are turnout figures:

Metro: 53.4% (+4%)
Cape Breton: 57.2% (-2%)
Mainland: 57.2% (+2%)
Overall: 55.7% (+2%)

PC ridings: 57.0%
Lib ridings: 54.4%
NDP ridings: 52.4%

Highest: Richmond (71.4%) [2017's highest was Cape Breton - Richmond, with 68.6%]
Lowest: Dartmouth North (46.1%) [2017's lowest was Halifax Citadel - Sable Island, with 39.3%]

Overall, the lowest turnout we've had apart from 2017; given how turnouts have been suffering in other COVID elections, it's a good sign that ours actually went up a little.

Richmond takes the highest-turnout prize for the third election in a row.


Note: have also updated the vote figures in the earlier post.

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To illustrate the importance of the individual candidate in Nova Scotia races, of the fourteen Liberal seats to be lost only five had incumbents running again (Antigonish, Eastern Shore, Guysborough, Halifax Citadel & Lunenburg).

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To illustrate the importance of the individual candidate in Nova Scotia races, of the fourteen Liberal seats to be lost only four had incumbents running again (Antigonish, Eastern Shore, Guysborough, Halifax Citadel & Lunenburg).

That's five.  

Whoops again - had originally only counted the four to lose to Tories and forgotten my own MLA!


To break this down further, nine open Liberal seats were lost and six were held (a 40% retention rate). In contrast, ten Liberal incumbents were re-elected and five were not (a 67% retention rate).