I am calling Bullsh*t on the DailyKos poll....

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You made a mistake. In the 3 day average listed for 9/10 (does that mean 9/8-9/10), Obama leads McCain 48-45.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I checked the numbers, and you do have McCain and Obama's 9/10 3-day tracking numbers switched.

Now, are we sure which days the 3-day tracking numbers are for? What if the 9/13 3-day tracking numbers were for 9/12-9/14, and 9/13 is listed just because it's the middle of that period? Now, I'm aware that the 9/14 single-day numbers haven't been released yet, but the poll on the main page does say 9/11-9/14. Yeah, it's weird that they'd have the 9/14 numbers released. There may be some sort of fencepost error involved.

Alterately, maybe 9/13 means 9/10-9/12, but I already checked, and that doesn't seem to work.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The daily sample for Sept 10th is:

   Obama 48
   McCain 45

   http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/11

The daily sample for Sept 11th is:

   Obama 46
   McCain 46

   http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/12

The daily sample for Sept 12th is:

   Obama 46
   McCain 47

   http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/13

The daily sample for Sept 13th is:

   Obama 48
   McCain 45

   http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/14

Do we agree?

Yes. Barring some sort of transcription error on their end, those are the actual daily numbers. I noticed that you fixed the 9/10 3-day numbers, although those don't seem to be relevant to the question at hand.

Now, the question at hand is which 3-day periods do the 3-day ones correspond to? Barring some sort of transcription error, you ruled out it being the last day. If it's the day afterwards, both 9/09 and 9/12 have McCain up 47-46, so that's not it, either.


I think the two remaining reasonable possibilities are:
1. The 9/13 3-day numbers mean 9/12-9/14, and we don't have the 9/14 1-day numbers yet.
2. There is some sort of transcription error, most likely with the 9/12 3-day numbers.