InTrade Presidential odds

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Winner
Democrat 68.4
Republican 32.2
Field 1.0

Democratic electoral votes
>210 90.0
>220 87.4
>230 85.6
>240 82.4
>250 78.9
>260 74.0
>270 66.1
>280 60.0
>290 55.0
>300 47.0
>310 38.0
>320 32.5
>330 26.5
>340 20.0
>350 16.0
>360 12.5
>370 10.0
>380 8.5





Democratic odds by state
DC 96.3
IL 96.0
HI 93.5
MD 93.0
NY 93.0
WA 92.0
RI 92.0
DE 90.8
VT 90.5
MA 89.5
NJ 89.0
CA 87.1
CT 87.0
OR 85.5
ME 85.2
WI 84.0
IA 81.5
MN 78.0
PA 75.0
CO 74.0
MI 73.0
NM 70.7
NH 67.0
OH 65.1
VA 59.9
NV 53.0
MO 52.5
FL 39.8
IN 34.0
NC 30.0
MT 27.5
AR 21.0
GA 20.0
ND 17.5
AK 17.0
MS 15.0
NE 14.0
TX 13.5
TN 12.0
LA 12.0
SD 11.5
WV 11.0
OK 11.0
KS 10.5
SC 10.1
AZ 10.0
KY 9.0
ID 7.5
WY 7.2
AL 7.0
UT 6.9

NM is the critical state, giving Obama 269
For a majority, NH is the critical state, giving him 273

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Bayh seems like a poor choice now that liberals are not likely to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

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Winner
Democrat 66.6
Republican 33.0
Field 1.4

Democratic odds by state
DC 96.3
IL 95.0
HI 95.0
MD 95.0
DE 94.0
RI 92.5
NY 92.0
MA 91.5
CA 90.0
ME 90.0
MN 90.0
NJ 90.0
OR 90.0
WA 90.0
VT 89.0
CT 88.0
WI 88.0
IA 81.5
PA 71.5
NM 70.0
MI 70.0
NH 67.0
CO 66.0
OH 63.5
VA 62.0
NV 51.2
MO 49.0
FL 42.0
MT 39.0
IN 38.0
NC 30.0
ND 27.5
AR 20.0
SD 20.0
GA 18.5
MS 17.3
AK 16.0
AZ 16.0
SC 15.0
NE 14.5
TX 13.4
WV 13.0
LA 12.7
TN 12.2
OK 11.3
KS 10.5
KY 9.0
ID 8.0
UT 7.5
WY 7.5
AL 7.0

Colorado is the critical swing state

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Big surges for Kaine and Gephardt; Reed and Nunn drop below 5:

Bayh 34.9
Kaine 30.0
Sebelius 13.1
Biden 10.1
Gephardt 8.5
Edwards 7.3

Bayh just crashed back down to more reasonable values.

Kaine 31.9
Bayh 25.0
Sebelius 15.0
Biden 12.4
Gephardt 8.5
Edwards 7.3

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Only people with a bid are shown.
If the last is not in between the bid and ask, the closer of those is listed.

Democratic VP
Biden 27.9
Bayh 25.0
Clark 14.9
Kaine 14.3
Kerry 9.0
Gephardt 8.9
H. Clinton 8.0
Reed 7.1
Daschle 6.5
Sebelius 5.2
Hagel 5.1
Richardson 5.0
Gore 4.9
Schweitzer 4.5
C. Kennedy 4.0
Rendell 3.6
Nunn 3.3
Napolitano 3.0
Dodd 2.5
McCaskill 2.4
Edwards 2.1
Cohen 2.0
Graham 2.0
Obama 2.0
Zinni 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Strickland 1.0
Kerrey 1.0
Webb 1.0
C. Edwards 0.9
Powell 0.4

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Bayh now in 3rd place.

Democratic VP odds
Biden 27.1
Kaine 27.0
Bayh 20.1
Clark 9.0
Sebelius 8.5
Richardson 7.5
Daschle 6.5
Hagel 5.1
Reed 5.1
Gore 5.0
Kerrey 5.0
B. Nelson 4.9
Nunn 4.8
C. Kennedy 4.0
Gephardt 4.0

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Democratic VP odds

Biden 49.8
Kaine 13.1
Sebelius 13.0
Bayh 12.7
H. Clinton 8.1
Clark 8.0
Richardson 6.9
Daschle 6.5
Reed 5.2
Bill Nelson 5.0
Gephardt 4.0
C. Kennedy 4.0
Kerry 3.5
Gore 3.0
Napolitano 3.0
Schweitzer 2.5
Dodd 2.5
McCaskill 2.4
Rendell 2.0
Hagel 2.0
Cohen 2.0
Graham 2.0
Nunn 2.0
Zinni 2.0
Obama 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Brown 1.5
Kerrey 1.0
Webb 1.0
C. Edwards 0.5
Powell 0.4

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Biden says he's not the one, drops almost 20 points
Gainers are Kaine, Bayh, Daschle
Democratic VP odds

Biden 30.1
Kaine 15.5
Bayh 15.0
Sebelius 13.0
Daschle 9.9
H. Clinton 8.1
Clark 8.0
Richardson 6.9
Reed 5.2
Bill Nelson 5.0
Gephardt 4.0
C. Kennedy 4.0
Kerry 3.5
Gore 3.0
Napolitano 3.0
Schweitzer 2.5
Dodd 2.5
McCaskill 2.4
Rendell 2.0
Hagel 2.0
Cohen 2.0
Graham 2.0
Nunn 2.0
Zinni 2.0
Obama 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Brown 1.5
Kerrey 1.0
Webb 1.0
C. Edwards 0.5
Powell 0.4

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Biden is the probable pick. Word is that it's not Kaine or Bayh

Everyone at 2% or higher last, with a bid:

Biden 72.0
H. Clinton 14.0
Sebelius 8.0
C. Edwards 7.0
Clark 6.1
Corzine 5.0
Bill Nelson 5.0
Bayh 4.0
Schweitzer 4.0
Reed 3.3
Richardson 3.3
Dodd 3.3
Webb 2.3
Daschle 2.0
Rendell 2.0
Brown 2.0

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Intrade has a new market out: "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election"

currently trading at 13.9

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PARTY WINNER
Democratic odds 51.8%
Republican odds 48.8%

DEMOCRATIC ODDS BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN'S BATTLEGROUND
IA 75
WI 72
MI 67
PA 66
NM 64
NH 57
CO 54 CRITICAL SWING
NV 52
OH 50
VA 46
FL 33
MT 27
IN 25
MO 25
NC 25
ND 10
GA 10

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Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

The Democrats do only need 26 of their 27 state delegations to get an outright majority in the House.

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States by Democratic odds
All states that are 11-89%.

Maine 89
Washington 88
Oregon 85
Iowa 85
Wisconsin 80
Michigan 80
New Mexico 80
Minnesota 78
Pennsylvania 75
Colorado 70 CRITICAL FOR OBAMA TYING THE ELECTORAL VOTE
New Hampshire 60 CRITICAL FOR OBAMA GETTING A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTORAL VOTE
Virginia 54
Nevada 53
Ohio 52
Florida 46
North Carolina 40
Indiana 39
Missouri 35
Montana 20
West Virginia 20