New Tradesports rankings

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The Democratic side has little change.
On the Republican side, Gingrich, Hagel, and Thompson form a strong 2nd tier of candidates who haven't announced.

Democrats
Clinton 44.3
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
McCain 23.5
Romney 17.0
F. Thompson 7.4
Hagel 6.3
Gingrich 5.1
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Owens 0.1
Allen 0.1

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Democratic side still boring.
Record high for Giuliani.
McCain is probably at the lowest since 2005.
Romney and indecisive Hagel tanking.
Rice and Bloomberg continue to be overvalued.

Democrats
Clinton 44.5
Obama 29.5
Gore 11.7
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
McCain 23.5
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 5.3
Hagel 3.6
Brownback 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.5
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.5
Paul 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.3

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Obama was over 31 earlier.
Edwards is catching up with Gore.
Warner is overvalued.
The last week has been terrible for both McCain and Romney.
A lot of the minor Republican candidates go down, including flavor of the week Fred Thompson.

Democrats
Clinton 44.9
Obama 29.6
Gore 9.9
Edwards 9.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Warner 0.5
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 22.5
Romney 14.0
F. Thompson 6.2
Hagel 4.4
Gingrich 3.8
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2

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A new record high for Giuliani. Romney continues to sink. Maybe some people got confused and thought that Tommy Thompson was the flavor of the week.

Democrats
Clinton 44.7
Obama 30.0
Gore 10.2
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.8
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 13.0
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2

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State probability map

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Obama hit a new record high of 31.9 earlier today. His gain seems to have come at Gore and Edwards, and not Clinton's expense.

Not much change on the Republican side, with Romney, Rice, and Paul having gains.

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 31.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Paul 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2

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Gore gains at Obama's expense
Lots of Republicans lose, while only Romney and Jeb Bush (!) gain.

Democrats
Clinton 44.9
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.6
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
McCain 22.8
Romney 16.0
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.6
Hagel 2.2
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.7
J. Bush 0.7
Bloomberg 0.6
T. Thompson 0.5
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2

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Edwards gains, otherwise small movement among the Democrats.
The top 4 Republicans all gain, no one seemed to corrrespondingly go down.


Democrats
Clinton 45.2
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.6
Edwards 9.9
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.6
Romney 16.5
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.6
Hagel 2.1
Brownback 2.1
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Cheney 0.6
T. Thompson 0.5
Powell 0.5
Paul 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Owens 0.2

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Clinton gains, while other top Democrats lose

Lots of Republicans go down, including Romney, Hagel, Brownback, Powell. No one correspondingly gains. There are now only 5 Republicans above 2.2, and only 9 Republicans above  0.5

Democrats
Clinton 46.2
Obama 29.0
Gore 10.0
Edwards 9.9
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 15.4
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 2.1
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

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Clinton and Edwards drop a bit.
McCain seriously tanks, Romney is now not much behind him.
Hagel and Brownback are now below Rice. That's pretty harsh.

Democrats
Clinton 45.4
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.7
Edwards 9.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.6
McCain 20.1
Romney 16.0
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.6
Hagel 1.5
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

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Edwards is close to a few month low.
McCain recovers a bit.
Fred Thompson hits a new record high.

Democrats
Clinton 45.8
Obama 29.2
Gore 10.2
Edwards 8.8
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 41.0
McCain 22.0
Romney 16.4
F. Thompson 8.7
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.6
Hagel 1.5
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

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If I can step back for a second on this....wow.  Edwards has been regarded as one of the "big three" contenders for the Democratic nomination for months now.  And now, not only do the Intrade betters rate Gore as having a better shot at the nomination, but they also think that Fred Thompson, who first expressed interest in a run about two weeks ago, has a better shot at the GOP nomination than Edwards has at the Dem. nomination?

Rumors on the Internets are that Edwards will announce that his wife has cancer tommorrow and drop out. Of course, I'm hoping that the rumors are wrong.

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Edwards is plummenting due to speculation that his wife has cancer.
He's lost over 50% in the last day.
Richardson is now ahead of him.

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 31.4
Gore 11.1
Richardson 4.6
Edwards 4.4
Biden 0.9
Dodd 0.5
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1

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Edwards cratered to 1.0 before going back up to 4.5. Very heavy trading.
Obama is a record high.

Democrats
Clinton 45.8
Obama 32.0
Gore 10.2
Edwards 4.5
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1

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I wouldn't expect him to reach 8.8 again any time soon.

There was a trade of 9.0 after the announcement.

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Edwards still strong, although Richardson isn't far behind.
Fred Thompson hits a new record high. Unlike fellow 4th placed Edwards, he's leading the next placed guy by a factor of 3.

Democrats
Clinton 47.2
Obama 31.5
Gore 12.0
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 4.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 41.7
McCain 22.5
Romney 16.7
F. Thompson 9.9
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.7
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.1
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

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Most major Democrats go down, except Clinton. There are now only 6 Democrats above 0.3, of whom Gore is the only one who hasn't filed with the FEC.
Fred Thompson and Bloomberg surge at the expenses of McCain and Giuliani. Fred Thompson now has over half as much as McCain.

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 30.4
Gore 10.9
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 4.3
Biden 1.1
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.8
F. Thompson 11.0
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.9
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.4
Brownback 1.1
J. Bush 0.7
Cheney 0.4
Paul 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

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Why is Vilsack the only Democrat to go up?

Democrats
Clinton 47.5
Obama 29.4
Gore 10.6
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 4.3
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.3
F. Thompson 9.8
Hagel 3.4
Gingrich 3.3
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.8
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

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Biden drops from 1.0% to 0.4%. There are now only 5 Democrats over 0.4%.
Obama loses, Gore gains.
Basically no movement on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 28.8
Gore 11.0
Edwards 6.8
Richardson 4.4
Biden 0.4
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.3
F. Thompson 9.8
Hagel 3.4
Gingrich 3.3
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.9
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

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Fred Thompson surges, currently 12.0, had a record high spike of 15.0 earlier. He's closing in on Romney and McCain. He is now almost quadruple the guy in 5th place (Gingrich).
Hagel (timetable vote) and Huckabee tank.

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 29.0
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 4.3
Biden 0.4
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.3
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.2
F. Thompson 12.0
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1

We're really seeing a tiered system

Democrats:
Tier 1: Clinton, Obama
Tier 2: Gore, Edwards, Richardson
Tier 3: everyone else

Republicans:
Tier 1: Giuliani
Tier 2: McCain, Romney, F. Thompson
Tier 3: Gingrich, Hagel, Huckabee, Rice, Brownback
Tier 4: everyone else

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Clinton gains at Obama's expense.
Huckabee totally tanks to 0.2, although he's got bids at 0.4 now. It's also been bad, but not as bad, for McCain and Hagel.
Fred Thompson could pass Romney this week. He's now beating the next ranked person (Gingrich) by over a factor of 4.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 28.0
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 4.3
Biden 0.4
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.2
F. Thompson 13.0
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 1.8
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Huckabee 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1

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Winning individual:

Clinton 24.9
Giuliani 22.0
Obama 17.3
McCain 11.6
Gore 8.1
Romney 7.2
Edwards 5.0
Warner 0.5
Allen 0.6

OK, Allen is way too high, and they probably need to add Thompson, Richardson, Gingrich, and so on.

Party winner
Democrat 56.2
Republican 42.5
Field 1.2

Senate control
Democrat 79.0
Republican 20.0

House control
Democrat 80.0
Republican 20.0

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Biden gains.
Giuliani is exactly double McCain.
Thompson continues his upward trend.
Huckabee rebounds a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 27.5
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.7
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 20.0
Romney 16.2
F. Thompson 13.5
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 2.2
Huckabee 1.8
Rice 1.7
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1

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Top 4 Democrats, particularly Edwards go up. Clark and Biden switch places.
Giuliani goes down. Thompson continues to gain, going up even as I post. Bloomberg has a massive gain.

Democrats
Clinton 49.7
Obama 28.3
Gore 10.9
Edwards 8.5
Richardson 3.9
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
McCain 20.5
Romney 16.6
F. Thompson 14.1
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.2
Huckabee 1.7
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.6
Brownback 1.0
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.1
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1

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The action today is on the Republican side.
Thompson surges at the expense of Giuliani. Thompson was at a record high of 20 earlier. The 3rd placed candidate on both sides of the aisle is now someone not running. Huckabee, Romney, Brownback also had losses, while some others gained.

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 28.4
Gore 10.5
Edwards 8.0
Richardson 3.8
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 34.0
McCain 20.5
Thompson 17.0
Romney 15.1
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.2
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
T. Thompson 0.7
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.1
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1