New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton is currently at an all time high of 69%. The other Democrats are basically unchanged.

Grandpa Fred didn't get much of a boost from announcing. He is just barely in 2nd place; and that's because Romney dropped. McCain goes up a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Obama 16.6
Edwards 7.2
Gore 6.6
Richardson 1.1
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
Thompson 23.2
Romney 23.1
McCain 4.7
Paul 4.0
Gingrich 3.2
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

 Romney passes Thompson. McCain is now below Paul. Hunter, but not Hagel drops offs.

Democrats
Clinton 68.9
Obama 16.8
Edwards 7.2
Gore 6.8
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.4
Romney 24.5
Thompson 22.5
Paul 4.1
McCain 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McCain up. Hagel out.

Democrats
Clinton 68.5
Obama 16.7
Gore 7.0
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.5
Romney 24.7
Thompson 22.7
McCain 4.6
Gingrich 3.1
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards and Biden gain a bit.

Thompson gains at Romney and Giuliani's expenses.  McCain is behind Paul, and doesn't lead Gingrich and Huckabee by much.

Democrats
Clinton 68.1
Obama 16.4
Edwards 7.4
Gore 7.2
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.3
Thompson 23.8
Romney 23.2
Paul 4.2
McCain 4.0
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 3.3
Rice 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Thompson, McCain gain a bit. Hunter back on.

Democrats
Clinton 67.9
Obama 16.9
Edwards 7.6
Gore 7.2
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.9
Thompson 24.7
Romney 22.6
McCain 5.2
Paul 4.2
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 3.4
Rice 0.5
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down, Gore up, Edwards down

Paul surges, now signficiantly ahead of McCain

Democrats
Clinton 66.7
Obama 16.6
Gore 7.9
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.4
Thompson 25.1
Romney 23.0
Paul 5.5
McCain 4.3
Gingrich 3.8
Huckabee 3.5
Rice 0.5
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore has actually been gaining. WTF?

Giuliani down, McCain up, but Gingrich only trails him by a bit now. Hunter drops off.

Democrats
Clinton 67.2
Obama 16.3
Gore 8.3
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 34.1
Thompson 25.0
Romney 22.8
Paul 5.2
McCain 5.0
Gingrich 4.6
Huckabee 3.3
Rice 0.7

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore inches up even more, just because.

Giuliani gains. McCain falls to  6th place, below the rising Gingrich. Rice gains.


Democrats
Clinton 67.2
Obama 16.2
Gore 8.6
Edwards 6.8
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.4
Thompson 24.7
Romney 22.5
Paul 5.2
Gingrich 4.9
McCain 4.6
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.0

The rise and fall of John McCain

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winning individual
Clinton 43.8
Giuliani 17.0
Thompson 8.8
Romney 8.0
Obama 7.7
Gore 6.0
Edwards 2.8
McCain 2.3
Paul 1.9
Gingrich 1.0
Bloomberg 0.5
Huckabee 0.5
Richardson 0.4
Biden 0.1

Field 0.2

Winning party
Democrat 59.4
Republican 39.2
Field 1.7

Congress Democratic control
House 81.3
Senate 87.1

Will run
Bloomberg Indy 20.0
Gingrich GOP 30.2
Gore Democrat 25.5

Dropout by end of year
Dodd 45.0
Richardson 25.0
McCain 9.0
Edwards 8.5
Huckabee 7.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Dem VP
Obama 26.1
Bayh 16.5
Richardson 15.0
Gore 10.5
Strickland 10.0
Clark 9.0
Biden 3.0
Edwards 1.5
Kerry 1.5
Webb 1.0
Dodd 0.9
Vilsack 0.3
Clinton 0.1
Warner 0.1
Daschle 0.1

Field 11.2

GOP VP
Huckabee 15.0
Pawlenty 12.5
Romney 10.9
Jeb Bush 8.9
Thompson 7.7
Giuliani 7.7
Rice 7.4
Graham 5.9
Hutchison 5.7
Steele 5.4
Gingrich 4.3
McCain 2.6

Field 40.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore has continued his climb to 9.5. Clinton is down a bit.

Gingrich announces he's not running, and falls to 0.1. The top 4 Republicans gain because of this. Paul is now a record high of 7.0. McCain is unchanged in a distant 5th. Huckabee falls.



Democrats
Clinton 66.2
Obama 16.4
Gore 9.5
Edwards 6.6
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.8
Thompson 24.6
Romney 23.2
Paul 7.0
McCain 4.6
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.1
Gingrich 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary very slightly down. Non-candidate Gore declines.  Richardson gains.

Giuliani gains at Thompson's expense. Paul drops, McCain gains, but still trails Paul. Huckabee and Rice have been moving around a lot, with Huckabee gaining and Rice losing here.

Democrats
Clinton 65.9
Obama 16.4
Gore 8.0
Edwards 6.7
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 38.3
Thompson 23.4
Romney 23.1
Paul 6.1
McCain 5.4
Huckabee 3.2
Rice 0.7
Gingrich 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton is back to 2/3rds.  Obama slides to a long time low.  Gore's numbers get more freakish.

Giuliani has had a very good week. Thompson drops. Rice surges.

Democrats
Clinton 66.7
Obama 15.5
Gore 9.9
Edwards 6.3
Richardson 0.7
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Romney 23.2
Thompson 22.9
Paul 6.1
McCain 5.6
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.3
Gingrich 0.3

Giuliani:

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore surges into double digits. Obama continues to slide, no longer leading Gore by much.

Paul is up a bit, McCain down a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 66.2
Obama 13.8
Gore 11.1
Edwards 6.1
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 39.4
Romney 23.3
Thompson 22.4
Paul 6.6
McCain 5.2
Huckabee 3.2
Rice 1.3
Gingrich 0.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Markets are closed, so I'm not listing anyone at 0.1.

Edwards below 6 for the first time in a while.

Giuliani, Paul, Huckabee drop a bit, while Rice gains.

Democrats
Clinton 66.6
Obama 13.4
Gore 11.0
Edwards 5.8
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.3


Republicans
Giuliani 38.7
Romney 23.6
Thompson 22.0
Paul 6.1
McCain 5.2
Huckabee 2.7
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As mentioned, there's some major movement going on.

Gore surges to 12.2, only weakly trailing Obama for 2nd place.

Thompson sinks. McCain now ties Paul.

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Obama 13.0
Gore 12.2
Edwards 5.6
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.2
Romney 24.0
Thompson 19.5
Paul 6.0
McCain 6.0
Huckabee 2.8
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nobel laureate Al Gore has quite a day, he goes up, then he goes down.  Edwards is basically a record low, and Clinton basically a record high.

On the Nobel laureate free side, Thompson has been crashing, and Romney and Paul have been gaining.

Democrats
Clinton 69.3
Obama 11.5
Gore 9.5
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.8
Romney 25.3
Thompson 16.5
Paul 7.2
McCain 5.7
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.8
Gingrich 0.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down, Gore up.  Edwards keeps sliding.

Thompson continues his crash and burn.

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Obama 11.0
Gore 11.0
Edwards 3.7
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
Romney 25.1
Thompson 15.5
Paul 6.9
McCain 6.0
Huckabee 3.4
Rice 2.0
Gingrich 0.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton up. Obama finally leading Gore again. Edwards' endorsements don't seem to be helping him on InTrade.

Thompson slightly recovers.  McCain up.

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Obama 11.2
Gore 10.5
Edwards 3.4
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.5
Romney 25.2
Thompson 16.2
Paul 7.3
McCain 6.7
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.9
Gingrich 0.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probability that they win if they get the nomination
Winning individual / Nomination Odds

Gore 97
Clinton 66.6
Edwards 63
Obama 58.9
Paul 45
Thompson 40.6
Giuliani 38.7
McCain 37
Romney 30.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now that the final Q3 numbers are out...

Gore slightly down. Giuliani a bit up.



Democrats
Clinton 69.4
Obama 11.2
Gore 10.0
Edwards 3.5
Richardson 0.7
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
Romney 25.0
Thompson 15.8
Paul 7.3
McCain 6.9
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.9
Gingrich 0.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary has surged to 74.5.

Gore has dropped to 4.2


Obama and Edwards gain a bit, and are now ahead of Gore.  Dodd surges.

Democrats
Clinton 74.5
Obama 12.9
Edwards 4.3
Gore 4.2
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down, but still really high.  Gore reclaims 3rd place from Edwards.

Giuliani surges and is basically a record high. Thompson continues his fall.

Democrats
Clinton 72.9
Obama 13.0
Gore 5.0
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.4

Republicans
Giuliani 44.5
Romney 25.6
Thompson 13.0
Paul 7.4
McCain 6.6
Huckabee 4.1
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.3


Clinton:

Giuliani:

Thompson:

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama down a bit.

Thompson continues his slide. Huckabee gains.

Democrats
Clinton 73.0
Obama 12.3
Gore 5.3
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.4

Republicans
Giuliani 44.0
Romney 25.6
Thompson 12.0
Paul 7.4
McCain 6.6
Huckabee 5.0
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.3

Huckabee went haywire earlier:

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not much movement on the Democratic side. Dodd down.

Giuliani down a bit. Thompson continues his crash and burn. Paul drops and Huckabee gains, they are now tied for 5th, with McCain re-claiming 4th place.

Democrats
Clinton 72.8
Obama 12.2
Gore 5.4
Edwards 3.9
Richardson 0.7
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 43.2
Romney 26.0
Thompson 11.0
McCain 6.6
Paul 6.0
Huckabee 6.0
Rice 1.6
Gingrich 0.3

Good week for Huckabee:


Not so good for Thompson:


Or Gore: