Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump (user search)
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  Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump  (Read 1300 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,833


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: October 23, 2017, 12:56:05 AM »

A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,833


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2017, 03:28:07 AM »

A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU

You can't tell me that there is not a single potential candidate under 65 who is the right (wo)man for the job. Come on...

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie. Merkley is the only one under 65 I can think of that could really make a run in 2020.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,833


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2017, 07:56:00 AM »

A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU

You can't tell me that there is not a single potential candidate under 65 who is the right (wo)man for the job. Come on...

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie. Merkley is the only one under 65 I can think of that could really make a run in 2020.

Your obsession with Bernie becomes increasingly obscure. Name rec comes as the campaign proceeds. Nobody knew Obama in 2007, Bill Clinton in 1989 or Jimmy Carter in 1975.

It's going to be hard with someone with low name recognition to run a campaign in the Super Tuesday states, including California before Iowa votes. Obama had 25% support the moment he announced, so isn't a good example of low name recognition. The big names stayed out in 1992, and Iowa was over a month before any other race in 1976.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,833


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2017, 07:57:34 AM »

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.


I'm talking about the primary. If you're a progressive with low name recognition and the DNC doesn't want to help you, and the media is ignoring you, you have a problem.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,833


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2017, 05:41:24 PM »

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.


I'm talking about the primary. If you're a progressive with low name recognition and the DNC doesn't want to help you, and the media is ignoring you, you have a problem.

If you win one of the early primary states (or possibly even if you just start polling well in one of them), then you get high name recognition.  We don't yet know who's going to catch on and end up with high name ID by the time we get to primary voting because the campaign hasn't started yet.


The problem is that it quickly turns into a national campaign, where you probably didn't have the resources for infrastructure until after your good showing in Iowa. Remember, Super Tuesday includes California now. This is a problem for a real insurgent candidate, not someone who starts off at 25% nationwide like Obama did.
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