Communist Party of China Congress, 2017 (user search)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 53,883


Political Matrix
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« on: October 23, 2017, 11:45:50 PM »

Let me prepare a watch guide for the next 24 hours anyway, as the Congress closing ceremonies are taking place right now:

The biggest question (and sorry if I have underemphasized this): will Xi Jinping get a "named ideology" in the CCP Constitution, on par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping? If he does, then all the other crazy questions people have wondered - whether he stays for a third term, takes up Mao's Party Chairman position, stacks the PSC and Politburo with allies, start purging party elders - become valid.

If he does, then you can then ask all those questions I brought up above.

Next question: how will Xi's revamped military leadership after this Congress look like? This is a much more difficult question for Western press to answer given the lack of public paper trails for those in the PLA, so take your time with this.

After that: is Xi really going to not include a potential successor in the PSC? The "consensus list" first kicked off by SCMP, NYT and others do not include either Hu Chunhua or Chen Min'er. Now, if Xi doesn't get a named ideology, you can assume a lack of a successor in the PSC is due to party consensus and someone will be elevated in a mid-Congress reshuffle (Deng Xiaoping did this).

After that: where exactly is Wang Qishan going again? Reports are converging that he will retire from the PSC, but the prospect of him joining that National Supervisory Commission I mentioned is also fading. The rumors converge on him joining the mysterious National Security Commission that Xi pioneered (maybe along with Li Zhanshu?). We won't know this for a few weeks after either.

After that: what happens to all the retired party leaders, or any of the non-Xi Politburo candidates that miss the cut? With Xi's anti-corruption campaign still going, you can never know for sure.

"Xi Jinping Thought" has been put into the constitution.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,883


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2017, 06:47:06 AM »

"Xi Jinping Thought" has been put into the constitution.

Yeah, I'm getting a drink as we speak... This BBC article is punchier than what I can say right now.

It looks like the list for the Central Committee has been sent out/leaked already. Biggest point of note is that Wang Qishan is not on the list, so assuming this is accurate we know he retired for good.

Some shockers: Li Yuanchao is out - that means 13 vacancies on the Politburo.
As far as I can tell Yang Jing is not on the list. The two brain trust members I gambled on - He Yiting and Li Shulei - are not on it. Liu He is (corroborating earlier reports).
Zhang Youxia is on the list - he is what one or two sources I read predicted would be appointed by Xi to lead the CMC. Smart money is on him, I guess.
One guy I forgot completely was Yang Jiechi, former US ambassador and a high-ranking "State councillor" in the formal Chinese government. Reaching 67 this year, he was someone I thought would just step down. Instead, he is on the Central Committee list and will probably cap off his career serving directly under Li as vice-premier.
Also didn't mention Li Xiaopeng, who is finally on the Central Committee list; he is an "arch-princeling" because he is former Premier Li Peng's son. Having quit his job leading a major state-owned electric utility corporation, he has bummed around for a decade in party politics with middling success.

The Congress voted on a separate list just for the Central Committee for Discipline and Inspection - the only current Politburo member also on that committee's list is Zhao Leji. This is as strong a signal as you can imagine that he really will enter the PSC as the "Corruption Czar."

More powerful than Deng is some crazy stuff. Yeah, it sounds like "8 down" won't apply to Xi in 5 years.
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