IL 2016: Kirk is in

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I don't know if Democrats will be able to take back the Senate in 2016, but Kirk is going down.

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I'm going to make a bold, bold prediction: Charlie Cook's initial rating for this race will be "Toss Up".

Also, he won't change it in any direction until at least mid-2016 barring some kind of freak wave emerging before then. Good chance it stays at "Toss Up" all cycle, even if Kirk wins or loses by 10.

Cook never seems like calling incumbent races an advantage for the other party. But this one obviously is.

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Tons of House Dems were pro-life/anti-gay marriage. They got Blanched anyway. These districts only care if you're associated the black guy's party these days. Nothing else matters.

Maffei is the poster child for useless Blue Dog. He had a conservative voting record in a D+5 district and lost by like 20 points.