The NRSC has basically said that this race is off their radar, which is saying something because they have California on their radar. I don't see the Democrats coming close to losing this race unless they are already in the realm of losing 6+ seats.
Bayh will need to avoid the Deeds mistake of ignoring his base while appealing to the center, but Bayh is pretty experienced at that tightrope walk.
Hey, the more money they waste in California, the less money they'll have where it would actually make a difference. Bush's arrogance of spending millions in California cost him the election until he stole it. There was only one state that Gore outspent Bush in: Florida.