SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[The Lord Marbury]

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

Yes. But it's no bigger than the Alliance's poll numbers (~36%) and shrinking every day.

Some say the "point of no return" is now in May-June when they went from down 5% to down 1 % to up 1% in 2010. I'm more generous, I think they have until August. If they aren't within 5% when the schools start in mid-August they're practically doomed unless the opposition is caught in a major scandal or suddenly become disastrous. Neither is looking all that likely.

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

I would say that even if they're 4-5% from the opposition in the August their chance of victory is still close to nonexistent unless there's a scandal or major campaign ****-up by the opposition. They need to be nearly dead even by then to have a chance to win on their own merits, IMO.

Latest Expressen/Demoskop poll:

Left - 8,7% (+0,5)
Social Democrat - 32,0% (-0,8)
Green - 10,0% (-0,5)

Centre - 4,3% (+0,6)
Liberal People's - 6,0% (+0,1)
Moderate - 23,0% (-1,4)
Christian Democrat - 3,9% (+0,2)

Sweden Democrats - 8,2% (-0,3)

Feminist Initiative - 3,0% (+2,2)

Alliance - 36,8% (-0,5)
Red-Greens - 51,0% (-0,9)

[The Lord Marbury]

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

What do you reckon are the chances of this happening, If there is a "hung parliament", with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc?

IMO, the chance of the Alliance staying in government becomes much bigger. While the Sweden Democrats have voted with the Alliance in 8-9 times out of 10 in this parliament, the Red-Greens relying on SD for support in a similar way would be much harder if not impossible due to the more significant ideological differences present. Not to mention the uproar such a situation would cause among rank and file members in the red-green parties.

[The Lord Marbury]

The idea that the Alliance stays on as a minority if the Red-Greens are larger than them is inconceivable however, since they would not be able to pass a budget then.

I wouldn't say that it's inconcievable because that would require all Red-Green parties to vote for the same budget and put themselves in the precarious position of having to rely on SD not to vote against the government. This would be hard for all parties on the Red-Green side, but especially the Left Party. SD probably wouldn't be happy with de facto letting the Left Party into government either. No, if the Red-Greens end up the larger bloc but without a majority I'm betting that the most likely outcome is either a S+MP coalition which eventually invites FP to join or a continued Alliance government in some form.

[The Lord Marbury]

The latest poll aggregation:

Left: 8,7 %
Social Democrats: 33,3 %
Green: 9,9 %

Centre: 3,6 %
Liberal People's: 6 %
Moderate: 23,3 %
Christian Democrats: 3,5 %

Sweden Democrats: 8,7 %

Alliance: 36,4%
Red-Greens: 51,9%

Others: 3,2 %

-----

It seems as if the government's hope of the spring budget proposition and shadow budgets being the game changers like 2010 isn't happening.

[The Lord Marbury]

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)

M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)

SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)


Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins! 

Well I would surmise that the Alliance itself would actually need to make some gains from the red-green drop in order to have a chance.

[The Lord Marbury]

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)

M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)

SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)


Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins! 

Well I would surmise that the Alliance itself would actually need to make some gains from the red-green drop in order to have a chance.

It looks more likely that FI will actually get in. With 2,9% it looks doable.

It's certainly doable, but the question is if their support will increase or even remain at this level once the campaign really starts to heat up. Failure to get into the European parliament could also lead to a drop in support.

[The Lord Marbury]

Vänsterpartiet 87%
Feministiskt Initiativ 84%
Socialdemokraterna 83%
Miljöpartiet de Gröna 81%
Piratpartiet 72%
Folkpartiet Liberalerna 50%
Centerpartiet 45%
Kristdemokraterna 39%
Moderaterna 36%
Sverigedemokraterna 36%

[The Lord Marbury]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

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This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

[The Lord Marbury]

The polls seem to be a bit all over the place right now, Alliance gaining in some, Red-Greens staying strong in others. Could be that it's just holidays messing with things.

Expressen/Demoskop

Left: 7,2% (-0,9)
Social Democrats: 31,5% (+2,4)
Greens: 13,6 (+0,6)

Centre: 4,5% (-0,8)
Liberal: 6,5% (+0,8)
Moderate: 19,4% (+0,9)
Christian Democrats: 4,2 (-0,6)

Sweden Democrats: 9,2% (-0,8)
Feminist Initiative: 2,8% (-1,8)

Alliance: 34,5% (+0,2)
S+V+MP: 52,3% (+2,0)
S+MP: 45,1% (+3,0)

[The Lord Marbury]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

Indeed. The Left Party will surely be heading for double digits with a red-green (rather than red-red-green) government*, despite the rise of a Fi that might have better chances at catching disgruntled MP voters than V.

Of note is that the Demoskop poll has an error committed by the newspaper - the Feminist Initiative's score should be a decrease, as they got over 4% in the last Demoskop poll.

*We need snazzier names for government alternatives, German style. I'm trademarking "Gambia coalition" for S-MP-FP.

Fix'd. With FI dropping in this poll perhaps their post-EU election glow is starting to fade. We'll see in time I suppose. When MP enters government it will also be interesting to just how much of their support is soft and how many are voting for them because they look like the cool and modern opposition alternative. FP under a Birgitta Ohlsson leadership could also have a chance at taking centrist-leaning MP voters.

Nah, I'd prefer "Gray coalition" for that. Or perhaps that term should be saved for the mythical S+M coalition.

[The Lord Marbury]

I would want that just for the sight of Junilistan going completely mental over suddenly being somewhat relevant.

[The Lord Marbury]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

Our social democrats attemped same, but people recognize fake and vote for real stuff.
If you watch EP results, SD did well in eternal red (Middle Sweden), thus they are worrying.

That does indeed tend to happen, but it remains to see if Sweden will follow the European trend. Unlike for example Denmark, the party system as a whole is definitely not gravitating towards stricter immigration policy.

@Swedish Cheese: Dang, I thought I had name-dropped all possible Moderate candidates. I forgot at least one. (And a big bunch of back-benchers, of course!)

Yep, something S in particular experienced this spring when they were forced to move away more from their traditionally somewhat strict policy on worker immigration.

[The Lord Marbury]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

...look a few posts up

[The Lord Marbury]

How is the FI (Feminist Initiative) doing in the polls, are they improving since they secured a seat in the EU Elections back in May, or was that the high water mark?

They're holding at around 2,5-3%, which is roughly the same raw numbers of votes the party got in the EU election but because turnout is higher in the parliamentary election it's not enough for them to get above the threshold.

[The Lord Marbury]

Demoskop poll for the Stockholm city council election:

Left: 10,1% (+2,7)
Social Democrats: 21,5% (-1,1)
Greens: 19,2% (+5,3)

Centre: 3,0% (-1,0)
Liberal: 7,1% (-2,9)
Moderate: 26,1% (-8,3)
Christian Democrats: 2,2% (-1,3)

Sweden Democrats: 4,1% (-1,5)
Feminist Initiative: 5,5% (+4,3)

Centre-left bloc: 50,8% (+6,9)
-56,3% with FI (+11,2)
Alliance: 38,4% (-13,5)

So like the rest of the country things certainly point towards an opposition victory in Stockholm as well. The Greens are as usual doing much better in the city than the rest of the country while S is doing quite poorly even for Stockholm. The question is they'll even do so poorly that the Greens will overtake them and become the biggest party on the left. But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)

[The Lord Marbury]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2054

[The Lord Marbury]

I don't have a personal investment in disliking Stephen Harper, so that's probably a net positive.

On happier notes, here's a movie for ya.

On even happier notes, here's a better movie.

[The Lord Marbury]

Botten Ada, which looks like an attempt to make a Swedish version of fivethirtyeight has the following prediction of the election outcome:

Left: 7,2%
Social Democrats: 31,4%
Greens: 9,2%

Centre: 5,1%
Liberals: 6,4%
Moderate: 21,5%
Christian Democrats: 4,9%

Sweden Democrats: 10,0%
Feminist Initiative: 2,5%

Leftwing opposition: 47,8%
Alliance: 37,9%

[The Lord Marbury]

So TV4 held their question time of the opposition party leaders tonight, which offered no news to speak of just like yesterday which featured the Alliance. Same old lines we've been hearing for weeks now.

What it did do was offer Löfven a chance to show off his jujutsu skills on one of TV4s more annoying tv hosts.

[The Lord Marbury]

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se.

Yep svt.se could work. The election authority's site (in Swedish will publish its result here on election night so it could certainly be worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

[The Lord Marbury]

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

I think that one is a few days old actually, and YouGov tends to be less trustworthy from other polls in my experience.

You can also take a look at: http://bottenada.se/ which seems to be a Swedish version of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight that has taken all recent polls into its consideration.

[The Lord Marbury]

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

I think that one is a few days old actually, and YouGov tends to be less trustworthy from other polls in my experience.

You can also take a look at: http://bottenada.se/ which seems to be a Swedish version of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight that has taken all recent polls into its consideration.

Well, if the poll was for 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10 then it cannot be that old.  But thanks for the site.

Huh, I guess I mixed it up with the poll released a couple of days of then. Though I stand by that YouGov generally have more unreliable polls.

[The Lord Marbury]

Young Swedes (very relatively) restore my faith in humanity.

What's F!'s position on government participation again ? Would it look like S-MP-V-FI ?

They seem to be pretty ambivalent on the idea of full on joining the government, their spokespersons have said that it has its pros and cons and that there are other ways of working with a red-green government. Pretty much what's expected to come from an anti-establishment party which FI in many ways is.