I know two posters have already made their predictions in
Another thread, but I'm curious as to anyone else following the propositions. Given the wide difference between the polling compaines (field and SUSA), there is a lot of speculation here.
For background information, there is the
Official voter guide, and the
League of women voters guideI have a limited knowledge about the tv campaigns, as I only watch one show on local networks (Jeopardy).
My predicitions (fwiw):
73: Parental notification. Passes narrowly (51-49). Though there will be a lot of knee jerk votes against it from the more ferverent of the pro-choicers, I think the proponents of parental notification are more orginized. The
PAC opposing the 'Arnold' measures isn't touching this one with a ten foot pole.
74: Teacher Tenure. Fails solidly (41-59). Teachers are generally well regarded in California, and thier union is one of the most powerful in the state. Linking the highly unpopular governor Schwartzenegger to the measure pretty much dooms it.
75: Union dues. Fails solidly (39-61). See 74, but add Firefighters and Police into the list of opponents.
76: State spending and school funding. Fails(45-55). This benefits a little from the frustration about the budget problems, but loses favor with those who don't want school funding slasher nor want to give the governor more power over the budget.
77: Redistricting. Fails closely (47-53). People know the state is gerrymandered to the hilt, but it's the devil you know against the devil you don't, and the implied linkage to Arnold weakens it signifigantly.
78: Drug discounts (industry): Fails (46-54). Game theory at work here, the divide and conquer method will insure both measures of failing, though the better funded one (this one) will do better.
79 Drug discounts (labor) Fails (44-56). Same reasoning as 78.
80: Electricity reregulation. Fails strongly (29-71). A lack of knowedge kills this on outright. People tend to vote against measures they don't understand. Plus, a number of voters will likely be voting no across the board as a protest against the special election.
Anyone else?
