The reason California could (will) trend to the center is that hispanics are trending to be a swing group.
The fastest growing counties in the state are GOP strongholds.
Arnold and McClintock, the two Republicans, got 63% of the vote in the recall. This is nothing to scoff at and democrats scoff at their own peril.
Bush closed the gap against the Democrat this year, in spite of Nader not being on the ballot in 2004.
That's kind of like pointing out that Clinton an Perot got 62% of the vote in '92, and claiming that it means Perot has a majority.
In some ways, Arnold is more socially liberal than his predessesor. Davis was known for being very tough on crime (at least by California standards), and would almost never grant parole no matter what the parole board says. Arnold is a lot more prone to following the board's advice.
By the standards of the national GOP Arnold is a clear-cut RINO, tollerated only because of his popularity and position in a major state.