The most pickable part of the Clinton-Obama Coalition for Republicans

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Forget the 270towin maps out there. I see a pattern where the Clinton-Obama coalition has replaced the Nixon-Reagan coalition as the dominant presidential political force but 2012 showed some signs of fracturing for the Democrats' coalition, similar to the GOPs dropoff from 1984 to 1988, albeit a smaller swing downward and with the same President. So which demographic groups could trend toward the GOP enough by 2016 to tip the 3.8% Democratic win this year to a slight or significant GOP win.

Theories:
Jews-Swung hard toward Romney. The GOP already has most of the far religious Jews and I don't expect committed Manhattan liberal Jews even to swing to Chris Christie. But I'm thinking suburban Jews will keep moving GOP.

Upper-Midwest Protestants/Ethnic Catholics: Always isolated into a fairly liberal region, nationalization and the decline of unions may improve GOP Presidential performance in these crucial states.

Hispanic Homeowners-Once Latinos move to even a first-ring suburb, they may become less progressive and lean less Democratic. We saw some evidence of it in 2004. I think that over the next four years as housing recovers more Latinos will leave urban areas and become homeowners.

Thoughts? This really is the central question as to whether the GOP can win in 2016.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Agreed so far on most counts. I also do think Asians could start swinging back in 16 with the right candidate.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I see African-Americans, especially in suburbia, going back to Bush #s once its an O'Malley or another generic white Dem running again.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

The Latino "social conservative" thing seems to be a myth. I think they basically mirror whites on social issues. They may vote more Democratic as comparably social-valued whites based on economics. I think Latinos that buy in suburbia (even if its an older Dem-leaning first ring burb) are more likely to swing to the GOP but the GOP needs to reengage on homeownership and education issues. A few in the 2016 field could swing back to near Bush 04 numbers.