538 Model Megathread (user search)

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Icefire9
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Re: 538 Model Megathread

« on: July 21, 2016, 11:29:30 AM »

Lol, the OP is literally bragging about their candidate having a 39% chance of winning. Sad!

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Icefire9
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Re: 538 Model Megathread

« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 05:39:38 PM »

I enjoyed this description of what each of the forecasts are 'thinking' right now.

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Icefire9
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Re: 538 Model Megathread

« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 03:26:23 PM »

Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on August 18, 2016, 03:02:09 PM

A couple polls came out today that, while having Clinton in the lead, were less than glorious for her, yet the model doesn't seem to have budged since yesterday. Anyone know why?

538 takes into account where each individual poll previously had the candidate.

For example, Rasmussen had Clinton's margin down 1 point from their last poll. Yougov's poll has the same margin as earlier in the month. The Reuters poll only has a 1 point drop from the previous poll.

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Icefire9
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Re: 538 Model Megathread

« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 03:32:56 PM »

Quote from: riceowl on August 18, 2016, 03:28:53 PM

Somewhat off-topic, but 538 cites this website throughout the attached article. Have they done that before?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clinton-doesnt-have-this-race-locked-up/

Yep, they've done it several times before.

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