Put a Rating on Control of the Senate

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Tilt R/Tossup, for now.

[Mehmentum]

Republicans have a clear, but narrow, path to win the Senate.  There are also several complications that could get in their way.

So the best path to victory I see for the Republicans is West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota , Arkansas, Louisiana, and Alaska.  The first three should be no problem.  However, the last 3 are where things get tricky.  I'd say the republicans are at least slightly favored in all three of those races, but Democrats could still pull off an upset there.

North Carolina is drifting away from the Republicans.  New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa aren't looking so hot either.  I honestly don't think the Republicans will get more than +6.

Republicans also need to worry about Kansas (and to a lesser extent, Georgia).  Orman could be a paper tiger, but its too soon to tell.  Kansas really is the wildcard right now.

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It's looking more Republican friendly. Iowa and Colorado both look really close and the Democrats need to win them both while hoping Orman wins Kansas and caucuses with them. 

Alaska, Louisianna, Georgia, etc. are falling out of reach.  The only Democrat in a red state that has a decent chance is Pryor.   

That is, unless another surprise happens.  That South Dakota race looks like it could be volatile.

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Alaska, Louisianna, Georgia, etc. are falling out of reach.  The only Democrat in a red state that has a decent chance is Pryor.   

Hagan?

I'd call North Carolina purple.

[Mehmentum]

Alaska, Louisianna, Georgia, etc. are falling out of reach.  The only Democrat in a red state that has a decent chance is Pryor.   

Hagan?

I'd call North Carolina purple.

Hagan is leading in most polls. Last PPP poll had Pryor down 6.

What I mean is Hagan will probably win NC, I just don't consider NC a 'red' state.  It was very close in both of the last two presidential elections which is enough in my mind to make it 'purple'.  Sorry for the misunderstanding.