Clinton is very much an overrated candidate. The Democratic version of Mitt Romney if you will. Her main strength right now is that everyone knows who she is; if Paul was nominated, the map would change very fast.
Now there's two ways this could go (assuming no major economic recovery or downturn, war, etc): it could come down to Paul's economic views (in which case it would be a straight up Red States vs Blue States election), or his more libertarian social views could become important, which would shift the map quite a bit. It would be fun to see her argue in favour of drone strikes and cutting back civil liberties during the election.
There's a difference between saying Clinton is overrated and saying she's the equivelent of Mitt Romney. Romney never had a polling advantage against Obama (except perhaps breifely after the 1st debate), and didn't have even close the primary polling advantage that Clinton enjoys.
