This map is assuming that the GOP continues to ignore hispanics, or completely fails to win them over. This
is assuming a tie in the popular vote.
Dark Red, Safe D states: The GOP won't be winning Minnesotta, its just not swingy enough.
Light Red, Likely D states: New Jersey could flip due to Christie. New Mexico continues drifting lefward. Wisconsin wouldn't budge even with a native son on the Republican ticket, I don't see Michigan or Oregon going R without a significant advantage in the nationwide popular vote.
Pink, Lean D states: The GOP's electoral problems get even worse in the next 4 years as Colorado become more Democratic than Pennsylvania, making PA the tipping point state. Virginia will also continue to drift leftward as it has for the past few elections and would be about on par with PA and CO. I don't know whats up with Iowa and New Hampshire, they voted solidly D this time around but I wouldn't discount them swinging back to the center. Nevada will almost be Light Red at this point.
Grey, Tossups: North Carolina will drift to about the national average. Ohio and Florida will reprise their roles as traditional swing states. Remember though, the election will have been won already with CO + PA or VA.
Very Light Blue, Lean R: Alaska had a surprising swing to the Democrats from 2008, beyond even what Palin being on the ticket would account for (there is a significant swing from 2004 as well). I'm not quite sure why, but its worth keeping an eye on. Montana can go D with the right Democrat. It has two Democratic Senators and a Democratic governor. If Schweitzer is on the ticket it will probably go D. Georgia will be in 2016 where North Carolina was in 2008.
Light Blue, Likely R: I've pretty much given up on Arizona. It doesn't seem to be moving leftwards at all. There are too many other factor other than just Latino growth going on there to really put this in play. This goes doubly so for Texas. Missouri continues to trend R, and Indiana and NE-2 look like a one off event. Senate races have shown that the Dakotas will flip for the right Democrat, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.
Dark Blue, Safe R: Sorry Mississippi Democratic Party, its not going to flip.
