Obama has the advantage though, so the status quo is good enough for him.
The race is a pure tossup. Obama is at best tied in Colorado and Virginia and has tiny leads in Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where he is under 50% in each one.
2% polling average leads at this point in the campaign historically result in victory about 80% of the time. With Virginia and Colorado tied(exatly so according to RCP), this is the state of the race.
Romney needs to win both of the tossups, as well as several of the states where Obama is favored. Either Ohio, or Wisconsin + 1 more state.
On RCP, Obama has average leads of more than 2% in both Ohio and Wisconsin. Romney is the underdog and the status quo most likely results in him losing.
