Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
Posts: 4,628
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« on: October 13, 2011, 10:27:55 AM » |
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Well, if Romney is the nomine, the race is a tossup, but Romney might not be the nomine. In which case Obama will be the heavy favorite (I'd say 80% chance)
Suppose that Romney has a 50/50 chance of being the nomine.
Romney's chance of being elected would be 25%
Obama's chance of being reelected would be 65%
Anybody else's chance of being elected would be 10%
A very crude calculation, but I feel that its about as accurate as one can get this far out.
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