Looking at it, I don't see how 2020 reapportionment doesn't hurt GOP in house (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 03, 2024, 02:43:57 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Looking at it, I don't see how 2020 reapportionment doesn't hurt GOP in house (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Looking at it, I don't see how 2020 reapportionment doesn't hurt GOP in house  (Read 1612 times)
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« on: January 27, 2017, 11:26:08 PM »
« edited: March 28, 2017, 01:41:10 PM by Virginia »

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2017, 12:11:45 AM »

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

-The most Romney-voting county in Michigan was the one growing fastest in population. Now look at heavily Dem Detroit and Flint. Rethink this.

It is exceptionally easy for anyone with brains to dissolve MI-09. Don't tell the liberals!
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2017, 12:30:06 AM »
« Edited: March 28, 2017, 01:41:37 PM by Virginia »

The big factor is who controls redistricting, not what the demographics of the relevant districts are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_Michigan

look at that delegation.  If Michigan loses a seat it would be hard for Republicans to take it from Democrats without extremely absurd gerrymandering... and even then.

-The most Romney-voting county in Michigan was the one growing fastest in population. Now look at heavily Dem Detroit and Flint. Rethink this.

It is exceptionally easy for anyone with brains to dissolve MI-09. Don't tell the liberals!

Oh really?  Because the two districts right around it barely went Republican to begin with (one by an even smaller margin than the Dem district).  Where are the democrats going to go?  Ridiculous post.

This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2017, 09:45:08 AM »

Fake news, lol. The 4 Democrat voter districts are burning infernos full of sloth that basically have the population of 3 districts once we extract the best citizens out.
Gluttony is a sin too, West Virgina.

It is indeed. And so West Virginia is losing a Congressional district. Which, incidentally, is what will happen in Metro Detroit for precisely the same reason.

In 2011, the 9th district (Gary Peters) at the time was dissolved due to mass population loss, and so shall it be again in 2021! Of course at the time, many successful Maker areas, including Peters' hometown of Bloomfield Hills, were put into the new 12th district so that Gary Peters would run there.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2017, 03:51:44 PM »


This is not complicated for anyone with brains. You put them in the other Democrat districts that need to expand bigly.

You do know that Paul Mitchell won by 30 points, right?

You think this is possible following existing Michigan law (e.g., minimizing county and town splits)?

Yes, indeed, quite easily, especially while including Trump numbers. The existing MI-09 voted 51-43 in this election, and thus has at least 43% of its voters as good people to salvage for fresh Republican districts. Many good people were left in the district in order to encourage Gary Peters not to run in the 11th district against Thaddeus McCotter in 2012. In fact, miserable failure DCCC chairman Steve Israel wanted Peters to run in the 11th in 2012! So that gambit worked.

Trump won Bay County by 13 points. Trump won Saginaw County, and won it bigly outside the city itself. Trump won Macomb County by 9, and won the MI-10 district by 32 points. It's the strongest district in Michigan and readily available to absorb some minimal number of Democrats. All these are massive improvements from Romney numbers.

Here is my map from 2013 (pre Trump).

http://postimg.org/image/7yynszysn/

If you prefer, I would eliminate the yellow district chop into Bay County, and the pink district chop into Wayne County.

Most folks who draw Michigan do so while cutting North Oakland County in half.

http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2013/05/9-4-michigan-congressional-map-in-2020.html


Either works, and both have substantial margin for error.



Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2017, 03:52:49 PM »

Who is a "Maker"? What do they make? 

In this context, a Maker might be one of the 53% contribute something to the federal treasury and society at large.

In this state, a lot of them make cars.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 12 queries.