Could Paul Ryan be in trouble in 2018 if there is a backlash?

[krazen1211]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

[krazen1211]

His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.

What was the PVI of the 90's era WI-2? In all honesty, the 90's Wisconsin House delegation was kinda fascinating given the high number of "wrong party" Representatives.

Al Gore got 58% of the vote in that iteration of WI-02. Extremist Baldwin got 51% against professor John Sharpless, which was even worse than what she got in 1998.

So, in an incumbent protection map, Obey and company removed areas where Baldwin lost to Sharpless like Dodge County....and they had to take Democrat voters in places like Beloit out of Ryan's district. So Ryan's district had to add population from that loss on top of the population it needed because Wisconsin lost a district....so it added parts of Waukesha that were in the dissolved 5th district.