House Districts where the General Election matters

[krazen1211]

Even a fairly even handed map would shift a lot of Dems into NJ-05 and NJ-07.  

NJ-05, yes; NJ-07, no. Lance probably won't retire before the next redistricting, and he's simply unbeatable under any fair set of lines. He won an open seat in a highly competitive district by 10 points against, arguably, the best possible opponent Democrats had to throw at him.

The map submitted by Democrats in 2010 didn't target Lance -- IIRC, it made him just as safe as the GOP map. The only real argument was over Garrett/Rothman, and we all know that Rothman drew a seriously short straw in that one.

I think the Republican district that should get most blown up in an even-handed map is actually Runyan's.  Burlington and Ocean should be anchoring two separate districts, as they are separated by:

* the Pinelands (the built-up areas of both counties are near the water)
* metro areas (Burlington and Mercer are part of the Philly metro, Ocean is in the NYC metro)
* political makeup (Burlington is D, Ocean is R).

A non-gerrymandered map all but requires that the bulk of Burlington and Mercer form NJ-3, and the fact that this would throw Runyan, Smith, *and* Holt together (and leave a nice, empty, logical Middlesex district in its wake) be damned.

This map, which I posted a very long time ago, remains what I firmly believe to be the sanest possible NJ configuration.  Lance, Smith, Holt, Pallone, and Runyan would all have reason to be upset with it.  (Holt and whichever of Smith/Runyan was willing to move to Ocean County would be bothered the least, of course.)

Okay, I suppose Lance would have an excellent chance of beating Garrett in the primary, come to think of it.

This map is prime example of drawing a D gerrymandering while spewing utter nonsense about fairness. The heavy D parts of Mercer are in the New York metro and there is far more frequent mass transit to New York than there is to Philadelphia from Mercer County. Also note of course the arbitrary selection of the Republican parts of Ocean County into the 4th rather than the 6th.

Runyan of course won the Burlington portion of his seat.


Roughly speaking, the incredibly obvious place to cut the metros is I-195. North Mercer has a large amount of folks who associate with areas in Middlesex and Somerset Counties up Rt 1 and not Evesham way to the south.

[krazen1211]

If the Republican Party keeps on its current path, New Jersey could wind up at 9D 3R by the end of the decade. Garrett and Runyan might lose generals if the mood sours -- neither are especially popular incumbents -- and LoBiondo's seat is lean Democrat if he retires, even in a good GOP year.

Heaven forbid Leonard Lance retire. If some Mike Pappas-style conservative wins the GOP primary, we could even see a 10D 2R scenario. Lance's district isn't trending Republican long-term.

Runyan has pledged 4 terms. But the others are probably lifers who in any case have no real prospect for statewide office and various chairmanships in the House.

[krazen1211]

Actually, the obvious place to cut the metros is the old East Jersey/West Jersey dividing line, which just so conveniently happens to be the line between Burlington and Ocean.  It sure doesn't make any sense for towns like Toms River and Brick to be in a Philly metro district, when they get their media and their settlement patterns from New York instead.  Despite the fact they're south of I-195.

I will grant that Princeton is more aligned with NYC than Philadelphia- however, Trenton is more aligned with Philadelphia.  Still better than crossing the Pinelands.

Also, of course, all of Ocean County is in the 4th here, I assume you meant Monmouth.  And that boundary was drawn for the sake of clean lines, rather than cutting out R areas- if I was trying to cut out the heaviest R areas, I'd have snaked up to Holmdel or taken in the panhandle rather than grabbing Freehold, which is more moderate.  Now, if you were trying to enact an R gerrymander while trying to keep to fair principles, I could envision the Ocean County district snaking up the coast as well.  It would be uglier than what I have, but certainly more defensible than the Pinelands crossing.

EDIT: The Yankees-Phillies map here is a good illustration of what I'm trying to say, and why I-195 is a far, far, far worse line than the Burlington-Ocean boundary.

Everything from Lacey on South in Ocean County has a far larger portion of Eagles fans than Princeton, Lawrence, West Windsor, East Windsor, all of which are stocked with Giants fans. You would at least have a barely defensible point about Brick being an NYC town if you didn't put those towns in the 3rd district. Placing heavily liberal NYC towns in a South Jersey district is no more defensible than placing conservative NYC towns in a South Jersey district, especially when there is Eagles territory or split territory like Jackson, Plumstead available.

Even Trenton Mass Transit has more frequent commuter trips north to Newark/NYC than South. New York Sports franchises have acquired minor league franchises in Trenton over the last decade. This is 2012, not 1992. The NYC metro has built up and pushed south, and the Mercer County population growth is primarily in the NYC leaning areas.

This is what Mercer County commuting data looks like. More people in Mercer work to the North, not the South.

Mercer Co. NJ   112,449
Middlesex Co. NJ   16,597
New York Co. NY   5,654
Somerset Co. NJ   5,364
Bucks Co. PA   3,865
Burlington Co. NJ   3,765
Monmouth Co. NJ   2,483
Philadelphia Co. PA   1,548
Essex Co. NJ   1,490
Union Co. NJ   1,291
Hunterdon Co. NJ   1,194
Bergen Co. NJ   803
Hudson Co. NJ   775
Morris Co. NJ   751
Montgomery Co. PA   704

[krazen1211]

On the one hand, yes, Mercer County is more oriented to itself and points north and northeast (Somerset and Middlesex County) than to points south. It's on the fringes of the NYC metro area, not Philly.

That said, combining that area with parts of Burlington County along the Pike makes much more sense than combining those same BurlCo areas with the shore, which has little in common with it. Philly fandom doesn't mean that much.

The NJ suburbs of Philly are too big for one district, too small for two, so these Dem-leaning areas have to go somewhere, so staying on the turnpike rather than crossing the Pine Barrens has a logic to it.

The 3 points stated are as follows:

* the Pinelands (the built-up areas of both counties are near the water)
* metro areas (Burlington and Mercer are part of the Philly metro, Ocean is in the NYC metro)
* political makeup (Burlington is D, Ocean is R).


Political makeup is an interesting point. This proposed map would combine Runyan voting Burlington County with probably not Runyan voting Mercer County. The actual map combines Runyan voting Burlington County with Runyan voting Ocean County.

The metro areas are what they are. So, in the end you have a map that relies on the singular point of not crossing the Pinelands. That is of course a valid choice.

The 8 South Jersey Counties have over 3 districts worth of population but less than 4. Given that North Jersey politicians and North Jersey political interests have dominated New Jersey, it is not unreasonable for the red headed stepchild to prefer keeping its 3 seats rather than potentially dropping to 2 in the proposed map if a Mercer Democrat and a Monmouth Republican claimed the 3rd and 4th district on that proposed map.

Incidentally, the Democrats came to the same conclusion on their proposed congressional map, and on their enacted legislative map. There is no such district that combines any portion of Mercer and Burlington County on either map and the preference is to combine Burlington and Ocean Counties.

[krazen1211]

Republicans don't have anything to worry about in Hunterdon, at least for now. But the problem is that those "Republican" areas of Middlesex and Union -- and really, even parts of Somerset -- could easily be lean Democratic by 2022. They're rich areas, but they're not culturally conservative areas. And they're prime target for wealthy New Yorkers looking for a suburban haven for raising kids.

For reference, see what happened to Millburn.

NJ-07 has moved entirely out of Middlesex County.

As it stands, the 6 Republicans won every single county line in each district except for 2: Lance lost his Essex portion by about 200 votes, and Rodney lost his Essex portion by about 2000 votes. That includes, for example, Garrett winning Bergen County.

[krazen1211]

Everything from Lacey on South in Ocean County has a far larger portion of Eagles fans than Princeton, Lawrence, West Windsor, East Windsor, all of which are stocked with Giants fans. You would at least have a barely defensible point about Brick being an NYC town if you didn't put those towns in the 3rd district. Placing heavily liberal NYC towns in a South Jersey district is no more defensible than placing conservative NYC towns in a South Jersey district, especially when there is Eagles territory or split territory like Jackson, Plumstead available.

Lacey is definitely NYC exurb territory.  I've been there, I used to know people who commuted an hour-plus up the GSP from there.

I'll grant that you have a point about LBI and the towns south of Lacey, where it does start to switch over.

Even Trenton Mass Transit has more frequent commuter trips north to Newark/NYC than South. New York Sports franchises have acquired minor league franchises in Trenton over the last decade. This is 2012, not 1992. The NYC metro has built up and pushed south, and the Mercer County population growth is primarily in the NYC leaning areas.

While the NJT line has more frequent service to Trenton than SEPTA, that's less a function of Trenton being a NYC-affiliated hub and more a function of the relative levels of service all throughout the two agencies, and elsewhere on the line.  The Northeast Corridor is quite possibly the busiest commuter line in the nation largely on the back of Princeton Junction, Metropark, and Newark, whereas SEPTA doesn't go more than half-hourly for any line, ever.

And you're also forgetting about SEPTA's line to West Trenton (in Ewing), as well as the RiverLINE from Trenton (which has three stops) to Camden.  I've taken the RiverLINE a lot and it's a good reminder that the western portion of Mercer, at least, does fit in well with Burlington. (I'll concede this is far less true for Princeton, West Windsor, and East Windsor.)

As for the Trenton Devils, well of course a "New Jersey" team that has historically had a fanbase in the northern part of the state is going to try and expand their following further south, in an effort to brand themselves as the team for all of New Jersey.

Here are the ridership statistics.

http://media.nj.com/bergen_impact/other/1Q2013.pdf

Metropark is the busiest station on the NeCorr still, but Hamilton and Trenton combine for 9000 daily boardings.  Hamilton and Trenton have more boardings than the entire Coast line through Monmouth county; partially as a result of the much cheaper property tax than anything by Princeton Junction. That's why both stations have been renovated and expanded over the last 15 years or so.


Here are Ocean County commuter statistics.

Ocean Co. NJ   120,741
Monmouth Co. NJ   37,280
Middlesex Co. NJ   12,018
Mercer Co. NJ   5,865
Atlantic Co. NJ   5,039
Union Co. NJ   4,527
Essex Co. NJ   3,651
Burlington Co. NJ   3,150
New York Co. NY   2,964
Hudson Co. NJ   2,311



I don't know how many people from Lacey take that hellish drive up to NYC every day, but it's not too many. Working in Burlington County is more common.