Romney/Democrat and Obama/Republican congressional districts

[krazen1211]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12
MN-07
AZ-01
AZ-02
FL-18
TX-23

Romney/Democrat Plausible:







Obama/Republican Confirmed:
CA-31
NJ-02
NJ-03
IA-03
NY-11
NY-02
VA-02
MN-02
MN-03
NY-19
NV-03
CO-06
WA-08
FL-27
FL-13
CA-10
CA-21

Obama/Republican Plausible:

[krazen1211]

VA-10 for Romney

Whole jurisdictions:
Romney 115042
Obama 114260

PWC:

Romney 16741
Obama 13574

Fairfax:

Romney 44774
Obama 44540


Roughly 50.6% Romney 49.4% Obama in the 2 party vote.

[krazen1211]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12


Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07



Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)



Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

Added. VA-02 looks quite plausible (Romney won Virginia Beach slightly, but its 4k votes either way). I don't think WI-07 is below 51% Romney unless you have actual numbers.

[krazen1211]

Phips, this is what someone on RRH calculated for PA-08:

Montgomery
Romney: 22,204, Obama: 17,919

Bucks
Romney: 155,876, Obama: 159598



Also, there isn't any of Jefferson in CO-06. It would be very close either way as Romney and this one needs to be carefully checked.

[krazen1211]

I just rechecked Minnesota 3rd and Obama seems to have won the Hennepin portion by 7000 votes.

[krazen1211]

Minnesota results by congressional district.

  R       D       O
1  165714  170381   9170   48.00  49.35
2  184571  184802   8496   48.85  48.91
3  195806  199099   7539   48.65  49.47
4  131520  231509   8790   35.37  62.26
5   88935  269692  10464   24.10  73.07
6  205595  151182   8723   56.25  41.36
7  180358  147763   7895   53.68  43.97
8  167536  187599   8937   46.02  51.53




So yes, MN-02, MN-03 make the list. Barely.

[krazen1211]

IL-6, IL-14 - Any chance Romney lost these districts?

[krazen1211]

Looks like NJ-05 did narrowly go to Romney. 

As did NJ-07. Hunterdon County just swung too far right.

[krazen1211]

VA-10 is looking incredibly close.  I have Romney ahead by about 3,000 votes, but there could be some late Dem votes in Fairfax that could swing it.  Im pretty sure Kaine narrowly won the district.

I checked VA-10 precinct by precinct. It went for Romney. The Fairfax portion went for Romney as well.


Oh, and the state did it too.

Link

[krazen1211]

Bumped for new results.

FL-18 went for Romney easily.

Minnesota is an interesting state, W won 5 districts here.

[krazen1211]

OR-05 nearly flips to a Romney/Democrat district.  Obama wins here 50%-48%.  Really stupid for Democrats to agree to that "compromise" that moved most of the Multnomah county portion out of the district.  They should have just deadlocked the process and let the Secratary of State(who is a Dem) draw the map and unpack the third. 

I don't believe that works for congressional redistricting, only legislative.

Oregon might gain a 6th seat. It will be interesting.

[krazen1211]

Looks like NJ-05 did narrowly go to Romney. 

As did NJ-07. Hunterdon County just swung too far right.

Yeah Obama won Somerset County but got blown out in Hunterdon County.

Well, not all of Somerset is in that district. It includes the Republican portions only.

[krazen1211]

TX-23 went for Romney.

If CA-10 went for Obama, CA-21 almost certainly did as well I think. Adding that to the list.

[krazen1211]

CA-21 is 54% Obama.