PPP Wisconsin Obama 49-Romney 48

[krazen1211]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

[krazen1211]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

You seriously think the 2012 general election electorate will be considerably more Republican than the recall electorate???

Probably roughly the same. The Democrats can think they can win merely by finding more votes in Madison and Milwaukee, but we already know that turnout in those counties was high. The lowest turnout counties except for Menominee were Walker Counties and that is where Paul Ryan will go to find more votes.

[krazen1211]

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

Three to five points' worth?

It's foolish to deny that this is a state to be concerned about--perhaps more so than Ohio, even, at this rate--but it still seems odd. Odder than the party ID I think is the fact that Baldwin is ahead by more than Obama. THAT strikes me as bizarre.

In those areas of the state, roughly so, if you compare, say, the tied result of Bush-Kerry to the 7 point victory of Walker-Barrett. Bush actually did better in Dane and Milwaukee County than Walker did.

I suspect that the second observation you made has to do with the fact that Baldwin paid for the poll.