Siena polls: NY-24 tied NY-01 Bishop +13 NY-18 Hayworth +13 NY-20 Gibson +16

[krazen1211]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/1st%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Bishop 52
Altschuler 39


http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/ann-marie-buerk.php

Buerkhle 43
Maffei 43

[krazen1211]

By comparison... they have the first tied presidentially, Obama won it by 4 in 2008. And they have Obama ahead by 19 in the 24th, 5 points more than he won it by in 2008.
Something tells me these polls ain't so good.

House polls are generally not perfect. I'll take what is given.



http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/18th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf


Hayworth 46
Maloney 33

[krazen1211]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD19%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf


Gibson 52
Schreibman 36

[krazen1211]

House polls are generally not perfect.

Oh, aye. The reason being that you can't take a scientifically unbiased sample of a given human population and that professional pollsters know how to cheat and get a representative-on-the-questions-they-care-for sample anyhow, in populations they know their way about. If House Districts had easily defined borders and stayed the same over lengthy periods of time, there'd soon be better polls of them.
 

Siena came up with interesting crosstabs for this Gibson poll. Gibson is winning 2-1 in his old district and only by 5 in the new parts.

I wonder if upstate is going back to its old holding pattern where incumbents hold marginal districts with ease.

[krazen1211]

I hope that's the case; that would be good for Hochul too.

Well, I would exclude Hochul from that, but Owens seems to have planted himself in historically Republican territory.