The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[krazen1211]

Oct 30, 2012:
D: 914697 (48.8%)
R: 592712 (31.6%)
I: 368034 (19.6%)

W: 1259425 (67.0%)
B: 529584 (28.2%)
O: 90111 (4.8%)

Average age: 54



Oct 28, 2008:

D: 899781 (53.9%)
R: 477071 (28.6%)
I: 290260 (17.4%)

W: 1137954 (68.2%)
B: 463564 (27.8%)
O: 66526 (3.9%)

Average age: 52





These next few days are when the early vote for the under 40 crowd surged in 2008.


Pollsters of course claim that obama is winning the EV in 2012 by identical margins to 2008. Bull!

[krazen1211]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

[krazen1211]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

Sounds like Obama is soaring among Indies!

Mathematically possible, of course. McCain got 36% of the Iowa early vote when it consisted of many more Democrats and many fewer Republicans.

Alternatively, the poll is junk, as it claims that Romney is getting 40% of Independents.

[krazen1211]

Clark County Day 11

D: 13014
R: 10097
I: 6029

Total: 29140

Yep, the GOP is closing well in Nevada with its superior efforts at getting its registered voters to vote.

D: 234578 (44.3%)
R: 199077 (37.6%)
I: 96256 (18.2%)

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)


R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

It's a glorious day!

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)


R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

It's a glorious day!

Good news, hope it stays like this or the gap widens until election night.

Secondly, why is Denver and Boulder county high on Democrat turnout? Where is the GOP in thouse counties?

Well, those counties have excess Democrats. Both parties are turning out the same there. Thankfully turnout is lagging on those 2 counties.

[krazen1211]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

[krazen1211]

CO looks ok so far for Obama.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9.

Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk.

I'd just made my own thread before noticing this...why do Colorado Republicans vote early so much more than their counterparts in other states?

They don't. Republicans are outperforming voter registration in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Colorado is such that it has more Republicans than Democrats and they are soaring to the polls this time.

Tender Branson is saying in 2010, the early voting was R+6 but ultimately Bennet won by 1%...nobody's disputing right now it's R+3, which seems to imply a narrow Obama victory. I'm listening very intently, krazen.

Of course. He and you both presume that independents will vote the same in this election as they did in those. Why would that be so?

In that same 2010 election Republicans won 3 statewide offices and the aggregate house vote  by 5 points. Of course they had better candidates in those races than Mr. Buck.

[krazen1211]

These next few days are when the early vote for the under 40 crowd surged in 2008.


Pollsters of course claim that obama is winning the EV in 2012 by identical margins to 2008. Bull!

NC early vote still moves heavily old and Republican! Half the vote is in.


D: 996299 (48.3%)
R: 654125 (31.8%)
I: 407651 (19.8%)

W: 1389593 (67.4%)
B: 572984 (27.8%)
O: 99619 (4.8%)

Oct 29, 2008:

D: 1006355 (53.2%)
R: 551056 (29.1%)
I: 332506 (17.6%)

W: 1299945 (68.7%)
B: 515112 (27.2%)
O: 75940 (4.0%)





This must be this ground game big talk. Less Democrats are voting and Romney is creating more and more new Republican whites. People over 45 make up 70% of the vote. Huzzah!

[krazen1211]

looking good in FL



http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/democrats-face-early-vote-hurdle-fla

Still looking good.


D: 1296808 (42.5%)
R: 1238152 (40.6%)
I: 517000 (16.9%)

[krazen1211]

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)

Colorado:

R: 493457 (37.8%)
D: 457337 (35.0%)
I: 341920 (26.2%)


Lovely.

[krazen1211]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

Out of curiosity, why do you think the Democrats will build on their 62K? I recall it was 58K like a week ago; but that swing doesn't seem to me to be large enough to indicate some sort of sudden last-minute surge in Democratic EaV support. Or is it?

Ballots have to be postmarked by Monday.

[krazen1211]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

[krazen1211]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

Precisely my point.  That leaves fewer Republicans and more Democrats in the pool on election day than in 2008.

Well, yes, but in 2008 Democrats  had an edge of over 100,000 voters. Thus, they build a 90k edge in early voting and still were nearly even on election day. In 2012 the Republicans have an edge of 10,000 voters.

[krazen1211]

NC early vote still moves heavily old and Republican! Half the vote is in.


D: 996299 (48.3%)
R: 654125 (31.8%)
I: 407651 (19.8%)

W: 1389593 (67.4%)
B: 572984 (27.8%)
O: 99619 (4.8%)

Oct 29, 2008:

D: 1006355 (53.2%)
R: 551056 (29.1%)
I: 332506 (17.6%)

W: 1299945 (68.7%)
B: 515112 (27.2%)
O: 75940 (4.0%)


This must be this ground game big talk. Less Democrats are voting and Romney is creating more and more new Republican whites. People over 45 make up 70% of the vote. Huzzah!

More surging by the Republican party!


Nov 1, 2012:

D: 1083235 (48.0%)
R: 718559 (31.9%)
O: 451494 (20.0%)

W: 1528802 (67.8%)
B: 618752 (27.4%)
O: 110362 (4.9%)

Oct 30, 2008:

D: 1118195 (52.5%)
R: 630585 (29.6%)
I: 379666 (17.9%)

W: 1472676 (69.1%)
B: 570460 (26.8%)
O: 86603 (4.1%)

[krazen1211]

But where did the 100K go?  They were probably indies who wanted to caucus for Obama or Hillary in 2008.  Many of them would also want to caucus for Romney or Santorum this time around, knowing that Obama was unchallenged.

Some moved, some died, some perhaps became indies or Republicans. 20k just registered this month. But the raw number of Indies is down.


Here is voter registration in 2008:

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2008/CongNov08.pdf


D: 698839
R: 592397
I: 711705


http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2012/CongNov12.pdf

D: 628043
R: 629443
I: 694558



Certainly the number of partisans is a wash.

[krazen1211]

NC is probably gone.  I'd still want to know how many of the other 4-5% were McCain Dixiecrats, though.  The fact that the electorate in a big state is coming in at least 1% more diverse than 2008 is a good sign for Obama nationally.

Tough to say. By the age distribution the 18-44 demographic is down 7% compared to the end of EV in 2008. Seniors are up 17%. It's the 18-44 white Democrats who are presumably gone.

[krazen1211]

Still looking good.


D: 1296808 (42.5%)
R: 1238152 (40.6%)
I: 517000 (16.9%)

Florida is pretty static.

R: 1396031 (40.3%)
D: 1471862 (42.5%)
I: 595634 (17.2%)

[krazen1211]

VA EARLY VOTE: Telling that the two extremes here are Buchanan (103.3%), a Kerry/McCain coal zone, & Portsmouth (33.8%), Af-Am city.



Glorious news!

[krazen1211]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

North Carolina

2008:
Age
18-29      14.9%   
30-44      23.5%   


2012:
Age   
18-29   12.2%
30-44   20.9%





The white Democrats who have dropped out of the pool are in the <45 agegroup. For instance, 25 year olds cast over 30,000 votes in 2008 and 22,000 votes thus far in 2012. Youth turnout is at 2004ish levels, at least here.

[krazen1211]

Final NC EV numbers:

2012

D: 1305875 (47.7%)
R: 861132 (31.4%)
I: 565836 (20.7%)

W: 1844103 (67.3%)
B: 751344 (27.4%)
O: 143500 (5.2%)

Average age: 52


2008

D: 1355390 (51.4%)
R: 795456 (30.1%)
I: 486256 (18.4%)

W: 1823420 (69.1%)
B: 701896 (26.7%)
O: 113599 (4.3%)

Average age: 50




Not too bad for Mr. Romney. Thankfully, hellish places like Chapel Hill are casting less votes this time!

[krazen1211]

Colorado:

About 70% of the vote is in.


R: 624788 (36.6%)
D: 590417 (34.6%)
I: 474437 (27.8%)




Good numbers for Mr. Romney. On top of that, there is a large reservoir of registered Republican voters in Douglas and El Paso Counties ready to soar to the polls tomorrow.

[krazen1211]

Colorado final numbers:


D: 642834 (34.3%)
R: 675797 (36.1%)
I: 534012 (28.5%)


The Republicans have successfully repelled the Democratic party. Today they will call in the reinforcements!