Samples are:
IA: 35 R, 34 D, 31 I
CO: 35 R, 31 D, 34 I
NV: 40 D, 38 R, 22 I
That R+1 Iowa sample looks fair, given that '08 turnout was D+1. Same for Colorado sample, which is R+4 in this poll, but was R+1 in '08. Nevada was D+8 in '08, and is only D+2 in this poll. But to be fair, 2004 turnout in Nevada was R+4.
These polls have to be good news for Mitt Romney considering that Obama won all three of these states by no less than 9 points in '08.
Surprised to see Iowa and Nevada so competitive.
I look at it as the other way. Obama basically leads in states that Bush won twice, after what way well be his worst month since the debt debate.
Romney has basically had a great month, winning the nomination, enjoying basically no negative coverage or gaffes, and yet he's not opening up leads anywhere in states that have a history of being more R than D.
Iowa is actually a Dem leaning state for the past several elections.
