NM: Rasmussen: Heinrich leads Wilson by 2%, Balderas and Wilson are tied

[krazen1211]

Heinrich has the backing of national Democrats and seems to be an able politician. He survived 2010 without much effort despite representing a swingish district.

And with Obama dominating the state he will have a much more favorable terrain this time.

Yes...that theory worked very well in 1984 for the 5 open seats that the Republicans lost. It was almost 6 as McConnell barely held on.

[krazen1211]

Heinrich has the backing of national Democrats and seems to be an able politician. He survived 2010 without much effort despite representing a swingish district.

And with Obama dominating the state he will have a much more favorable terrain this time.

Yes...that theory worked very well in 1984 for the 5 open seats that the Republicans lost. It was almost 6 as McConnell barely held on.

Politics were far less polarized in 1984.  Even then, McConnell was a unexpected pickup for Republicans due to Reagan's big win and Jesse Helms held on thanks to Reagan's big win.  Republicans had long conceeded Howard Baker's old seat Tennessee to Al Gore and didnt even run a real candidate there. 

If Obama wins big, im betting that the only seats Republicans pick up are Nebraska and maybe Montana and North Dakota, while  Democrats will gain Massachussetts and Nevada and maybe even Arizona, for zero net gain for either party. 

There are obviously large exceptions to that, such as the open seat in West Virginia.

[krazen1211]

Heinrich has the backing of national Democrats and seems to be an able politician. He survived 2010 without much effort despite representing a swingish district.

And with Obama dominating the state he will have a much more favorable terrain this time.

Yes...that theory worked very well in 1984 for the 5 open seats that the Republicans whlost. It was almost 6 as McConnell barely held on.

What are you talking abot? The gop only lost 3 seats that year; only. 2 were incumbents, and more importantly there was only a net gain of one.

Hmph, I should rephase, all 5 weren't open. There were open seats in:

West Virginia (Rockefeller)
Tennessee (Gore)
Massachusetts (Kerry)

and of course the 2 incumbents in

Iowa (Harkin)
Illinois (Simon).

The fact that Reagan won all these states certainly did not lead to us winning the Senate seats, not make much headway in defeating Democratic incumbents.