Scott Walker recall goes live

[krazen1211]

Walker +12 here.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/24/turnout

[krazen1211]

Great turnout piece on Wisconsin.



http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/Uploads/Documents/wisc/fowler-turnout-was-the-key-factor-in-the-april-2011-wisconsin-supreme-court.pdf




The Republicans nowadays are putting up enormous landslide margins in Waukesha, Washington, Ozuakee, and suburban Milwaukee. Had George W. Bush done so he would have won the state.

Dem turnout in Madison was abnormally high, and Dem turnout in Milwaukee City was abnormally low. Of course those net out.


No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

[krazen1211]

Marquette: Walker + 7.


Yawn.

[krazen1211]

Don't believe the latest Marquette polling numbers showing Walker up by 7.  The baseline assumptions in that poll are ridiculous.

If you look in the crosstabs, the poll gives about 32% weight to Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties.  These three counties represent about 10.7% of Wisconsin's population.  They do represent about 32% of greater Milwaukee's population, though.  Western and Northwestern Wisconsin, which are solidly democratic are way under-represented.  That's why he has a 7 point lead.  Nobody, and I mean nobody in the state thinks this is anything but a tie race.  This poll is basically published to try and drive down democratic turnout.  Going into the race, there were only 1 - 2% undecideds, so a 6 point swing is fantasy.  Franklin, who runs the Marquette poll ALL BUT ADMITTED THIS in an interview.
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate.  Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.

Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.



Of course, if you're a liberal you can just go with the internal polls rather than the public polls. Shrug.

[krazen1211]

Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

I thought of those numbers (roughly) as I read his post.  The poll showed Obama with a 8-10% lead... so, if anything it was oversampling dems.  Lacrosse and Duluth isn't were the population is or were the uber-hyper motivated voters are.  That would be Dane county on the dem side and the WOW counties and Milwaukee suburbs on the GOP side.   

His mistake was thinking that Milwaukee MSA only includes those 3 counties.


Heck, Prosser did exceptional in Milwaukee County outside of Milwaukee. That's 300k people. The fact that the poll overestimates Milwaukee City by 2% and Madison MSA by 2% makes it quite Dem friendly.

[krazen1211]

Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

Nice job making a bunch of numbers up.  Hope the math didn't take you too long.
The population of Milwaukee metro from US Census estimated end of 2011 is about 1.56 million.  600k in milwaukee. 950k in suburbs.
Go back and read my entry.  I didn't say the suburbs were over represented at 32%, I said Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties were.  THEY make up 10.7% of the population.  I am sure a poll that weighed Dane county at 32% of the vote would show Barrett ahead by 7.  Quit making up numbers and misrepresenting my clearly written post to try and prove a point

Bzzzt, wrong. You still don't seem to have figured out that the Milwaukee DMA consists of more than those 3 counties. The poll identifies 32% of the vote coming from the Milwaukee DMA outside the city.


I'm not surprised, though. This poll is quite in line with about a dozen other polls.


http://www.journalinteractive.com/markets/milwaukee/

Home to over 2.2 million people, the Milwaukee DMA is the largest population center in Wisconsin. 571,800 people live in city of Milwaukee, the nation's 26th largest city ranking ahead of Las Vegas, Nashville and Portland.

[krazen1211]

Here comes PPP to help Barrett with the narrative.

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WAA has Walker +12 again.

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Lol, 16% of Dane is in and its Walker 12k Barrett 16k.

[krazen1211]

Walker is only down 56-44 in Dane county with 15% in.

Careful, these votes are not Madison proper according to the Cheeseheads at Ace of Spades (which has the fastest tally besides CNN live, BTW).

Doesn't really matter much given that Dane should be bluer than that.

[krazen1211]

Walker still down only 4k in Dane. Of course McCain won all of 1 precinct in the entire county if I recall, and it was a tiny one.

[krazen1211]

Looks to me like a 52.5-47.0 win for Walker when Milwaukee and Dane are fully counted.

That would make Angus Reid the best pollster, while PPP and the Independent groups are average and We Ask America would be the worst pollster.

The New York Times has the Exit Poll table:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

Party ID is 34D, 34R, 32I. Based on the crosstabs, Walker is predicted to win with 51.6%

PPP did a great job by polling Walker+3.

BTW, Obama leads Romney by 53-42 in the exit poll.

LOLOLOL!

[krazen1211]

Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage.

Yep. Bad on me for wanting to believe it and then using it to criticize people for wanting to believe We Ask America... bad exit polls are hardly new this year so I should have known better. In the end it went exactly as polls have been predicting for months.

Interesting in that what we see is that executives seem to survive, but legislators pay the price. 

Well, Walker slightly declined in Racine County from 2010. And a couple really red precincts in Racine County are not in SD-21. GOP has only themselves to blame for not using the new map; of course, Walker won easily in SD-12 and SD-18.

[krazen1211]

What matters is we took the Senate...

So you spent between 50 and 100 million dollars and you get to "pretend" to have control of the Wisconsin State Senate for 5 months.  Wow.

I hardly think it's completely inconceivable that a bare Democratic advantage in the state senate could continue to exist after November (granted, it's distinctly unlikely on account of the gerrymandering), but admittedly it's not like this was done last year when it actually would have, well, mattered.

Districts 12 and 18 are 3/7 points, respectively, to the right of the state as a whole. Walker just 60% (probably more) in district 18. Good luck.

Incidentally the state senate redistricting was really not that skillful. The state assembly redistricting, which baconstrips swingy suburban Milwaukee County into Waukesha County, was.

[krazen1211]

Primary results in Milwaukee County.

http://whitefishbay.patch.com/articles/pasch-wins-10th-assembly-district-seat

The village voted for Pasch by an overwhelming majority — nearly 96 percent, according to unofficial results from the Shorewood Village Clerk's office.

Of the 3,531 ballots cast in her favor, Pasch received 2,060 from Shorewood residents, which is 35 percent of all of those who voted in the race.






Amazing!  White liberals in shorewood decide to vote in lockstep for a white liberal to overtake the votes of 44k 80+% black precincts in Milwaukee.

Pasch appears to have gotten roughly 1600 votes in Milwaukee precincts while the black candidate Coby got roughly 1950 votes in Milwaukee.

[krazen1211]

Primary results in Milwaukee County.

http://whitefishbay.patch.com/articles/pasch-wins-10th-assembly-district-seat

The village voted for Pasch by an overwhelming majority — nearly 96 percent, according to unofficial results from the Shorewood Village Clerk's office.

Of the 3,531 ballots cast in her favor, Pasch received 2,060 from Shorewood residents, which is 35 percent of all of those who voted in the race.






Amazing!  White liberals in shorewood decide to vote in lockstep for a white liberal to overtake the votes of 44k 80+% black precincts in Milwaukee.

Pasch appears to have gotten roughly 1600 votes in Milwaukee precincts while the black candidate Coby got roughly 1950 votes in Milwaukee.

Krazen unexpectedly forgets to mention that Pasch was already representing Shorewood and that she, unlike the other candidates, campaigned door-to-door.

Oh yes, I'm well aware of that. What is interesting, other than the absurd soviet style 96-3 margin, is that the black candidate was from Shorewood while Pasch is from Whitefish Bay!

It's no wonder that blacks demand their own districts when white liberals parachute in from elsewhere and steal their districts. Coby had the support of much of the Milwaukee black establishment, but obviously that was not enough to stop Pasch.