Ohio Redistricting Contest

[krazen1211]

Are you guys doing Ohio Senate maps dissolving a northeast district and relocating it to Columbus?

Vaporing SD-13 (Lorain, Elyria City) seems like it should be a top priority, and relocating that to the Columbus suburbs. Columbus Democrats themselves can be racked and packed into 1 district.


The Dayton district could probably be cracked it seems, successfully, if they chose to do it.


Here is my remapping of Cleveland. I also put Akron back into 1 district; SD-27 is a weak Republican district that should be stronger without Akron in it.

[krazen1211]

Is your district 23 divisible into 2 house seats in one county and 1 in the other?  If not then this violates more provisions of the Ohio constitution than is necessary. 

Ugh, no. This is going to be very, very tricky, as I suppose you already noticed, at least in the Northeast. Back to the drawing board!

[krazen1211]

Approach OH like you would MI. Both states have detailed requirements for building districts. The requirements are different and OH only has their requirements apply to the legislature, however.

What were your thoughts on breaking ward boundaries to create majority black districts? I started in Hamilton County, which is much easier than the northeast, and you can create a 4-2-1 delegation there by connecting the white areas of eastern Cincinnati with the white areas of western Cincinnati.

Butler County is of course very easy, and Warren + excess in Butler creates 2 house districts. Linking 2 in Warren + the 7th in Hamilton should be an option to create a Republican Senate district.

[krazen1211]

Alrite, here is my first shot at Franklin County and surroundings.





10 districts are allotted to Franklin County. 2 more are allotted to Delaware + Union County.

Districts 13, 15, and 16 form Senate District 1. 13 and 16 are majority black VAP. All are 75-82% Democratic.

Districts 14, 17, and 22 form Senate District 2. 17 and 22 are lean R at 52% Republican; 14 is lean D at 54% Dem. The overall district is a tossup with a GOP incumbent who unfortunately lives just outside its borders but represents this territory.

Districts 18, 20, and 21 form Senate district 3. 18 and 20 are lean R at 52% Republican; 21 is lean D at 53% Democratic. Senate district is a tossup with a GOP incumbent.

Districts 19, 23, and 24 form Senate district 4. 19 is safe D at 57% Democratic; 23 and 24 are safe R at 60/64% Republican. Senate district is safe R for the incumbent in Marysville.

[krazen1211]

Districts 94, 95, and 99 form Senate District 5. If necessary I will add the 1 precinct to connect that touch point. District 99 is 80% Democratic while 94 and 95 are 60% Republican. Tossup Senate district with a Democratic (black) incumbent.

District 96, 97, 98 form Senate District 6. District 98 is a tossup while 96 and 97 are 55 and 60% Republican. Safe R Senate district.

[krazen1211]

Districts 94, 95, and 99 form Senate District 5. If necessary I will add the 1 precinct to connect that touch point. District 99 is 80% Democratic while 94 and 95 are 60% Republican. Tossup Senate district with a Democratic (black) incumbent.

District 96, 97, 98 form Senate District 6. District 98 is a tossup while 96 and 97 are 55 and 60% Republican. Safe R Senate district.

80% D plus two 60% R's is a lean D district, 53-47ish.  Also, are you sure there is a D incumbent?  The 5th district elected an R in 2010.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Beagle

Hmm, I suppose you are right.

Either way, Greene County is growing faster than Dayton, and more importantly, the Democratic primary would be dominated by urban blacks. It's a decent shot to hold the seat.

Looking back, I wish that Montgomery could be linked to Warren County, but it fits so nicely with Greene.

[krazen1211]

Hamilton County and surroundings.




Districts 8, 9, and 10 form Senate district 7. Safe R.

Districts 1, 2, and 6 form Senate district 8. Safe R.

Districts 3, 4, and 5 form Senate district 9. District 3 is a tossup wholly in Cincinnati/Norwood. District 4 and 5 are safe Democratic majority black districts. Recombining these by wards will simply yield district 3. The Senate seat is safe D.

[krazen1211]

Hmm, I suppose you are right.

Either way, Greene County is growing faster than Dayton, and more importantly, the Democratic primary would be dominated by urban blacks. It's a decent shot to hold the seat.

Looking back, I wish that Montgomery could be linked to Warren County, but it fits so nicely with Greene.

Beagle is from Miami County, so in an effort to keep him in that seat, I'd put the Montgomery leftovers with Preble and then make a Darke-Miami house seat (splitting one of them).  Added benefit is that these areas are even redder than Greene County is, and this puts the western/northwestern counties to some good use other than simply vote-sinking them.  I'll work on a map doing that. 

What are the stats on your Hamilton house seats, particularly 2 and 6? 

District 1: 71% R
District 2: 56% R
District 3: 52% D
District 4: 85% D
District 5: 78% D
District 6: 56% R
District 7: 59% R

I chose Greene because the numbers worked, but good point. Then you can use Greene County to neutralize some of the rurals closer to the Ohio river.

I tend to trust rurals less than I do suburban Republicans. And Greene is growing faster than Preble/Darke. That said your method probably works better.