The Brad Miller Thread (AKA Draw your own CD)

[krazen1211]

All right, here we go.

I'm an independent, but a liberal one. Assume I run as a Democrat. Since it's not exactly hard to draw myself a safe Democratic seat, I decided to give myself areas that I am familiar with (at least somewhat), and areas that I have ties to (no matter how tenuous).



This is what I came up with in a vacuum. However, since I'd generally rather have Democrats in Congress than Republicans, it's likely that I would draw a nasty gerrymander that included something like this, had I actually bothered to draw the entire state.

That's a very nice district. Minor tweaks and I could fit mine. I want NYC commuters and not people on the shore.

[krazen1211]

It is interesting to see three different NJ posts for ideal districts. Let me go a step beyond and assume they all sit as members of the NJ Redistricting Committee. I'll act as a staffer given their requests to form into the new map.

Here are my observations in fulfilling the request.

Chairman Verily (he has the most posts) is requesting the shape of the new CD 9. Even though the request is made without the VRA, the final map will have to have one majority-black and one majority-hispanic district. The majority-black district (CD 10) needs the Oranges, Maplewood, and part of Montclair to bring it up to 52.7% VAP. The majority-hispanic district (CD 11) is 51.8% VAP, but leaves Nutley and Lyndhurst as islands that have to go to the chairman's new CD. After those changes plus some extra wards in Clifton, it's now 61.9% Obama with a VAP of 56.7% white, 7.5% black, 16.2% Hispanic and 17.9% Asian.

Members Vazdul and krazen1211 have requested adjacent districts (CDs 12 and 4). They both are looking at parts of Mercer county and they've left a bit of a hole around Jamesburg in Middlesex. Since the Jamesburg hole is heavily Dem, that will go into CD 12 and most of krazen1211's Mercer request will be retained in CD 4. The biggest constraint on CD 4 is insuring that there are 3 full CDs in south Jersey without going into Monmouth, and that adds parts of Florence to CD 4 bringing it to 54.2% McCain.

CD 4 and the south Jersey 3 define CD 6 along the Jersey shore. CD 10 needed Plainfield, so to  maintain some compactness CD 6 picks up Piscataway from Vazduls' request. That leaves East Brunswick and Somerville to bring CD 12 up to population. It is now 66.4% Obama with VAP of 54.2 % white, 15.1% black, 15.0% Hispanic, and 14.1% Asian.

This is the map that results. The maximum deviation is 61 persons. The political split is 8 D - 4 R, with one of the D districts (CD 2) rated as a lean D with Obama at 54.3%.

Looks good to me. I have no problem with the changes to my district. I really have no preference as to whether I get Piscataway or Jamesburg and East Brunswick- at that point I was just looking for filler to bring my district up to population. I chose Piscataway because I have ties to Highland Park, and felt it would be ridiculous to cross the Raritan River just for Highland Park.

Silverlight is downloading

Somerville+Cambridge (from MA-8) +Brookline+Newton (from MA-4) = 310,000
Arlington 43,000, Watertown 32,000, Belmont 25,000, Lexington 31,000, Waltham 60,000 (from MA-7) = 191,000

Total suburban Boston = 501,000

Add in Alston-Brighton, Back Bay, South End, Beacon Hill, Jamaica Plain, and parts of Dorchester with a large enough gay population from MA-8, and you'll get a less diverse, more upscale version of MA-8 with a large liberal Jewish population. 

Thank God you're running in Massachusetts. Krazen and I can't afford having you run in New Jersey, unless you want a district dominated by Burlington and Camden.

That's not a terrible map actually. Realistically Lobiondo will win that district anyway.

[krazen1211]

He doesn't have to go to Somerset; there are more Republican areas in Union County that he could take in (Mountainside, New Providence, Berkeley Heights).

Although his district and the Hispanic majority district are mutually exclusive.

It also challenges the black-majority district, though both may be possible still. I'm concerned about the potential lack of contiguity. The district relies on the unpopulated ocean parcel. Does NJ permit that type of hop?

Connect Paterson to the Hispanic district though Kearny and northern Newark rather than into Elizabeth, then wrap Verily's Bergen County district around through North Haledon, Wayne, and go south into Verona/Livingston/etc.

You'll have to move Plainfield out of the black district or draw very tortured lines.

I would grab some of CD-12's more Republican areas and CD-12 would have to shift north to Piscataway. Though I question whether theyre's 3 districts of population south of the CD-4 and CD-12 line, though its close.

[krazen1211]

I actually live in Mount Laurel nowadays, but my roots are up there in Middlesex/Monmouth County.

This is the northeast.




Pink district needs about 200k people. The problem is its only 58% Obama under these lines. The slate green district is full and 52% Obama. The bright green district is 80k short and can grab them from Jersey City.

There should be enough room for a black district here.

[krazen1211]

The finished product.





Very GOP favored. I get a 51% McCain district, Pulaski gets a 51% Obama district, Vazdul gets a 72% Obama pack right up the highway. The grey district is also Republican.

Alternatively, the Grey district can grab more of Mercer, while the Vazdul district gets the 4th's portions of Middlesex, while the 4th grabs all that area in Burlington County.

[krazen1211]

The finished product.





Very GOP favored. I get a 51% McCain district, Pulaski gets a 51% Obama district, Vazdul gets a 72% Obama pack right up the highway. The grey district is also Republican.

Alternatively, the Grey district can grab more of Mercer, while the Vazdul district gets the 4th's portions of Middlesex, while the 4th grabs all that area in Burlington County.

I also get drawn out of my district. I live in Hopewell Township, and I insist on a Mercer County-based district (at least as far as is reasonable). I'd even rather have the Republicans around Flemington than places like Plainfield and Woodbridge- I'm simply more familiar with them. I'm also white, and afraid that your map might leave me vulnerable to a racially-motivated primary (although there's no one racial group that would be dominant).

Other than that, the north looks about as good as can be expected. It's much cleaner than my Newark-Paterson black majority district that gives Torie's "gorgeous octopus" a run for its money.

Thanks. Those are easily fixable as the point is to draw districts for us and not poor Leonard Lance, who's going to get a bunch of Democrats. I'll probably give CD-4 your Burlington section so you can have East Windsor.

[krazen1211]

I really have to snake you up to Perth Amboy a bit to protect Pulaski. How's this? All of Mercer except the Republican areas.




The only other change would be if you wanted Lower Somerset. Then the red district would take a bit more of the Perth Amboy/Methuchen area.

[krazen1211]

Inconveniences me a lot, but as long as I can do fine in Dover/Toms River, I don't need to worry about a primary. I've lost about 2/3 of my original district though.

[krazen1211]

Inconveniences me a lot, but as long as I can do fine in Dover/Toms River, I don't need to worry about a primary. I've lost about 2/3 of my original district though.

What's the CPVI on that Mercer/Burlington CD?

61.4% Obama. Leaves room for 1 Dem district and 1 GOP district to the South.