PPP: Only Romney & Demint lead Obama in SC

[krazen1211]

That's not terrible for Romney or Pawlenty at all. Obama has a high floor and low ceiling in the South. And in Obama/Romney there are twice as many undecided whites as blacks.

Looking more closely, between Obama/Romney, the undecideds are 9%. Whites are 7%, blacks are 1%, and others are about 1%, rounding. By party line, 4% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans, and 16% of independs are undecided.

Looking like 56/43 to me. Not quite George W. territory,  but halfway there.

[krazen1211]

56/43 in South Carolina for Romney, and close to George W. Bush results? No, more likely 52-48 for Romney, a nailbiter with Obama vs. Pawlenty. DeMint would probably get 54-46, which would suggest that DeMint would be in trouble elsewhere.       

None of those numbers make a lick of sense whatsoever unless you have reason to believe that Obama will be winning a large share of undecided whites.

[krazen1211]

It matters perhaps that these are states (VA, NC, and GA; less so SC) that have way more transplants and in-migration from the northeast than anywhere else in the South, except maybe Florida, which is sui generis.

That's true, in the sense that SC whites are about 25% Democratic, as opposed to AL whites which are about 12%. But certainly given past history there is very little reason to believe that any national Democrat will win much more than 25% or so  of such whites (Sheheen got about 28%), and especially not registered Republican whites, which vote about 97% for the Republican.