US House Redistricting: Ohio

[krazen1211]

I think you're confused, Torie, sir. What you're responding to is my own map where I took the proposed one and cleaned it up. It's not official.

[krazen1211]

I think you're confused, Torie, sir. What you're responding to is my own map where I took the proposed one and cleaned it up. It's not official.

Oh. I thought you copied the real map. Hopefully someone will put up the real map or copy it, so that my tired old eyes can see it. I have trouble reading some of the maps put it.  That is why I make mine big and bright! 

2 pages back. It's there. It'll make you puke. Theirs are uglier than mine, but I based my layout off theirs and removed the 3 split counties.

[krazen1211]

Map apparently passed the House.

[krazen1211]

Stivers really wants the banks in downtown Columbus.

[krazen1211]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

[krazen1211]

Branch v Smith allows for 'at large' elections when an election is so imminent that districts cannot be reasonably drawn without disrupting the process.

[krazen1211]

If the Republicans pass a new map, even if it only moves two people total, the clock starts over again, including for the referedum.

But not for the finalization date. And not for the general election date, either. Unless the new map is one that no one objects to, doing this would be good for Democrats and bad for Republicans.

The primary date can be moved as a matter of law.

It seems though that part of the process would be to remove the power of redistricting from the legislature. That however cannot happen until November 2012 and the legislature clearly retains to right to pass new maps until that time.

[krazen1211]

Apparently Republicans are proposing to pick off Democratic votes by stretching OH-3 from Columbus to Dayton, making it 42% black and possibly violating court precedents while wrecking one of the few areas of the map that didn't look like Maryland.

Source?


Quite logical. OH-12 and OH-15 have so much strength now that they can certainly take on some white liberals, say, those at Ohio State.

[krazen1211]

For instance, it seemed pretty clear that the GOP was willing to pair Turner and Austria, so I don't see a compromise map that has any other pairing in the SW.

More like, was hell-bent on keeping a seat available to Stivers.
I wonder why. Maybe he knows something that could get Kasich jailed.

Former member of the legislature.

The obvious district to dissolve was always Jordan/Gibbs and of course Kucinich/Sutton. Both could be done without much disruption to the other districts.

[krazen1211]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/10/rpeubclians_say_they_are_close.html

That would have the effect of making solidly Republican districts in the Dayton and Cincinnati areas slightly more competitive for Democratic candidates. It would also bump up by a few points the black voting-age population in a solidly Democratic-leaning district in Franklin County.




It is very easy to combine western Hamilton County, Cincinnati (minus Norwood), and Clermont County into a solid Republican district.

[krazen1211]

It will be a bit tricky to put all of the Cinci blacks in one CD without making it fairly marginal, unless those precincts are combined with the most hyper GOP ones in the area.

Precisely. This will displace Mean Jean a bit but no district is really going to switch.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/210/cinci1.png/

[krazen1211]

It will be a bit tricky to put all of the Cinci blacks in one CD without making it fairly marginal, unless those precincts are combined with the most hyper GOP ones in the area.

Precisely. This will displace Mean Jean a bit but no district is really going to switch.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/210/cinci1.png/

A similar link with Warren instead of Clermont would protect all the incumbents.

Yeah, but I couldn't figure out how to nicely do that while also maintaining all of Cincinnati in 1 district.

[krazen1211]

http://www.cantonrep.com/newsnow/x422404093/Kucinich-lobbies-for-GOP-redistricting-plan

An Ohio congressman facing a primary fight against a fellow Democrat is lobbying for an embattled GOP redistricting plan, asking voters to call state lawmakers on his behalf.

One Democrat targeted by the robo-calls, state Rep. Timothy DeGeeter of Parma, said Wednesday that he received such a call at his home and fewer than a dozen phone calls from residents who contacted him in response to U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich’s overture.

[krazen1211]

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How do you know this Lewis? If all the blacks want is to have their folks not divided between CD's, what you suggest is not what the story suggests the blacks are demanding in exchange for their votes. Am I missing something?

The alleged new demand is safe districts for all 5 current incumbents.

[krazen1211]

New map.

http://media.cleveland.com/open_impact/other/New-GOP-Congressional-Map.pdf

Appears to have weakened the Turner district a bit. Some minor changes with the Columbus district as well perhaps.

[krazen1211]

Turns out the 2/3 vote failed and now the OH GOP is threatening a more partisan map.

[krazen1211]

They have to get the signatures. If they don't I believe the original map stands?

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/12/democrat-led_petition_drive_on.html

While the original Democratic plan was to hire a professional signature collection firm, Ohio Democratic Party officials have gone the all-volunteer route after funding for the effort has not materialized.
Ian James, CEO of Professional Petition Management, said his company was contracted in mid-October to do the petition work for Ohioans for Fair Districts. That's the official name for a group of Democratic officials working to overturn a congressional map passed this fall primarily by Republicans lawmakers. Democrats are upset because the newly-drawn congressional map has 12 solidly Republican districts and only four Democratic ones.

[krazen1211]

I have trouble understanding how that 13th comes to be so competitive.

Good map though overall, and I remember it now.

It's full of white, not high income voters. I wouldn't really describe it as competitive; the right Democrat should hold it easily.

[krazen1211]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/12/democrat-led_petition_drive_on.html

Redfern said Democrats have collected about 135,000 signatures right now in roughly five weeks of signature-gathering by 1,000 volunteers, but declined to handicap the chances that his volunteer army can harvest 231,150 valid signatures by a Christmas Day deadline. "You work real hard and you stand out in front of libraries, and you talk to people and you gather signatures," Redfern said. "This is an extraordinarily challenging effort, but one that needs to be taken on."


Generally, successful ballot drives need to gather at least 400,000 signatures to get enough valid signatures to qualify an issue for the ballot. That would put Democrats about one-third of the way to the number of signatures needed with less than three weeks left--although state elections law would allow them at least several weeks extra time if they can muster the minimum needed by the Christmas Day deadline.



Yeah, the map is a go.

[krazen1211]

Keary McCarthy, chief of staff for House Minority Leader Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, said the map is “virtually” the same one that Democrats refused to support in early November.

[krazen1211]

If he is still around, John Boehner's district cannot and will not be messed with in such a manner.