US House Redistricting: Ohio

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Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

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Steve Latuorette is in charge.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/08/redistricting_gets_rolling_in.html

GOP Congressman Steve LaTourette of Bainbridge Township said he's been tapped by Boehner to put together the map that Ohio's Republican delegation will seek to see enacted by state lawmakers.

He said one Democratic district and one Republican district will be eliminated in the Ohio delegation's proposal. He acknowledged that "Cuyahoga County can't support all those congressional districts," but wouldn't say if Kucinich's district was the one headed for the junk yard.

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I have some updates about how this might be starting to shape up.  Apparently, the Republicans are planning to eliminate Sutton's district and give Kucinich a swing district that, though not necessarily out of reach for the Democrats, would be impossible for Kucinich to hold.  Columbus will likely be cracked three ways (much the same as it currently is).  Also, Jordan's seat doesn't seem to be on the chopping block.  They seem to be planning to merge two of the following freshmen's districts, Renacci, Gibbs, and Johnson, and letting them fight it out in a primary (though which two has not been decided).  Apparently, there was concern that Jordan might defeat Stivers or Boehner in a primary.  Bare in mind that these are just rumors I heard recently, however, they come from a pretty credible source.

Certainly very logical. That plan though would likely require that the black district stay in Cuyahoga.

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Certainly very logical. That plan though would likely require that the black district stay in Cuyahoga.

Not necesarily, you can get OH-10 to about R+3.4 or so with the black district 50.1% VAP going to Akron and without OH-9 coming into Cuyahoga. The following is R+3.36 using 2008 presidential numbers:



Here's the corresponding OH-11:



It looks hideous, but don't all the VRA OH-11s?

I guess that is possible, but Latuorette is taking some less than desirable areas there.

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Something like this would be my version of that plan.




The key point is making sure Latuorette has a good district that he will like. Here McCain won the gold district by 1.3 points.

The 10th (pink) is a 52% Obama/58% Dem district that sort of loops and collects random leftovers. Such also does not disrupt other districts much, if at all, and I would think the 10th district would really be considered a bonus by the OH GOP and not a necessity.

Based on what TJ said above I tried to keep Renacci in the same district he has now. He could simply pick up his needed ~30k people to the south in, say, very Republican Richland County.

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Don't you need Akron's blacks in the 11th to get above 50%?  Also, if you do that with your 10th then it just becomes Sutton's district, which misses the point of giving it to Kucinich.  For this strategy to be effective I think you need to confine the 10th to Cuyahoga and Lorain (and maybe part of Medina), cutting out Sutton's home base in Summit County.  Put Sutton in with Ryan or Fudge.   

Finally, it would be extremely helpful to get Canton into Ryan's district. 

You do. The question is whether Akron wants to be in a district with Cleveland and whether anyone will care if the district sits at 47% or so.

Sutton actually has very little overlap in that 10th. Most of it is Kucinich territory in Cuyahoga. Akron and Lorain are elsewhere; and only 110k or so people in that district are in Summit County; and its more Republican than the Cuyahoga portion.

I suspect the Canton leg, as useful as it is, is unlikely. But if you wanted that you would have to take the 6th up into the Mahoning Valley more.

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Good points. I will try to remap it.

I would think that Lakewood, Parma, the small piece of Cleveland, and the rest of the Dem leaning areas in Cuyahoga would give Kucinich enough of a base to win a primary.

Northern Medina County is a place that Sutton lost in the last election, and barely won in the one before. It would be a good fit, though I figured Renacci would want as much of Medina as possible.

That would also help move Alliance or Canton out of the 16th.

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But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

Mostly ugliness of the lines. You can condense the Democrats to 3 districts in Northern Ohio with very Torie-like juts, but if they don't do that you are slightly constrained.

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TJ, does anyone in Akron actually WANT to be in a Cleveland district?

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Does anyone think "Kucinich wins the primary, loses the general" is a bit too much to build into a map?

It reminds me a bit of PA-13 in 2002, and that didn't work.

Yep, which is why I don't like weakening OH-14 and OH-16 those 50 basis points. That's precisely what doomed PA-08.

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What would a Kuch wins the primary and general CD look like? Any chance the GOP draws that as a vote sink?

That would be the black district. If Kucinich runs away from Marcia Fudge that's his problem.

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Didn't Krayzen argue that Republicans electing Austria in OH-7 is a sign of how prominent diversity is among the national party and its voters? This would be quite a setback.

That's only if he loses or doesn't run for senate.

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It's a very high stakes race. The reputations of tens of millions of voters across the country are riding on it.

I think you're out of date, sir. There will still be numerous minorities such as Mr. Scott and Mr. Labrador who are elected by white conservatives.

This is not 2008.

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Here's my good government alternative. It's based on the Ohio Redistricting Competition and has exact equality at the block level. The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP. The districts are highly compact with few splits.

Is this confirmed?

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So no attack on Sutton?

That strategy inevitably must also take Lorain out of Sutton's district.

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So no attack on Sutton?

That strategy inevitably must also take Lorain out of Sutton's district.

No comment on a primary with a racial component?

What is your theory on why white Republicans chose to unseat one of the only minority Republicans of the 111st Congress when there were multiple 13-3 maps available?

Are you really asking that question based on 'word from Marcy Kaptur's office'? Perhaps you should wait for a map first. It will be out in a week or so and patience is a virtue.

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Are you really asking that question based on 'word from Marcy Kaptur's office'?

This is the second time we've had this lead, about the white Republicans trying to purge a minority member from office. I suppose it may not happen.

Hmph. It seems like you are correct and it is quite unfortunate. One wonders what Mean Jean did to avoid the axe with Turner.



http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/09/12/republicans-to-create-new-congressional-district-franklin-county.html

Ohio Republicans will create a new congressional district in Franklin County that would likely elect a Democratic as part of a redistricting plan that would strengthen Republican congressional incumbents Pat Tiberi of Genoa Township and Steve Stivers of Upper Arlington, according to Republican sources.

The new map would combine the Democratic districts of Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Dennis Kucinich of Cleveland, which would force a primary between those two.

It also would blend together the districts of Betty Sutton of Barberton and Tim Ryan of Niles.




Donut hole and the double cut up north. I proposed such on page 3 and I am quite glad that it seems to be occurring.

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Here's the legislation. Map to follow.

http://www.legislature.state.oh.us/BillText129/129_HB_319_I_N.html



This is going to be a bloodbath. Lucas County is split 3 ways and the new 9th is a work of art.

Chabot to have all of Warren County. Bye bye Dreihaus.

The new Franklin district is numbered the 3rd. Franklin County is still split 3 ways.

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This may be dumb question, but is there any way this map could be struck down by a court if it violates communities of interest atrociously enough? 

You mean like the Illinois map? No.

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Wow.

http://blogs.dixcdn.com/capitalblog/

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The 15th and 9th districts are quite absurd. The 15th unnecessarily so; it should swap territory with the 10th or 12th. It would be cleaner to run the 15th up to Richland County and the 12th down to Athens; either way Athens is drowned in Columbus suburbs.

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Lol 15th.

Someone do me a detailed reconstruction of the 16th... R's must be feeling fairly confident of winning it (or just seeing no better way to keep Renacci alive).

How solid is the 1st district shore-up of Chabot - not today (I have little doubt it's solid in 2012), but for later in the decade?

Chabot got a 7 point boost from 2008. He used to get ~53-56% of the vote in a typical election. Warren County is growing quickly while Hamilton is shrinking.

The 6th is still winnable for the Democrats, as is the 16th probably.

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It does still seem like OH-6 should have been routed into the Columbus suburbs while OH-12 was routed into some of those Ohio River Counties.

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http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/09/dennis_kucinich_sees_new_distr.html

Dennis Kucinich sees new district as a positive, 'amazing turn of events'

"It is an amazing turn of events that the legislature decided not to dismantle the district I represent.
"I have been praying that I could continue to serve my Cleveland-area constituency and it looks like I have a chance.
"That is all I could have hoped for."



He should have kept his mouth shut.  9th is 43% old Kucinich turf, 36% Kaptur.

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Cleaned it up a bit.