PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[With you in spirit]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1518898806405976064

Not really sure why. He should just let the GOP clown car run its course and then run as the sensible alternative to whichever fool they nominate. But I suppose this doesn't hurt. He's got a ton of money.

[With you in spirit]

https://twitter.com/sdemarcoii/status/1524041040671526912

was just coming here to post this. Lean D if it’s Shapiro vs. Dictator Doug.

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Breaking News: Jake Corman is reportedly going to announce on talk radio that he is dropping out of the race tomorrow and endorsing Barletta.

Someone change the title to Corman OUT then back in then back OUT

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LMAOOOO congratulations Governor Shapiro

[With you in spirit]

So what's the 411 on this Mastriano guy anyways? Can someone give me a highlight (or maybe lowlight I should say) reel of what makes him so unelectable?

He is a radical, was present at the January 6th protest, has a long history of homophobic/islamophobic/xenophobic remarks, seems to have fascist tendencies/parrots a lot of the same rhetoric and is close with militia types. He’s more or less what comes right before a Matt Shea.

And he’s likely going to win the primary tomorrow. It’s also possible Rick Saccone, who was also present at the capitol on J6, will be the nominee for Lt. Gov.

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PA Democrats and poorly timed health scares--name a better duo.

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1526542197474066437?s=20&t=gIAS4L...

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Here's my prediction for tonight (I'm a little more confident about this one than the Senate):

Mastriano: 40%
Barletta: 25%
McSwain: 18%
White: 11%
Other: 4%

Mastriano is going to dominate across western and especially central PA, keeping Lou confined to the cluster of counties around Luzerne/old PA-11 and possibly down towards Lehigh Valley/Philly suburbs. McSwain and White could win their respective home counties of Chester and Delaware but that's about it for them.

Yep I think you've got it about right here.

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If Mastriano wins the general, would he actually have the authority to deny Biden Pennsylvania's electoral votes?

I believe the final call comes down to the legislature and I imagine the AG would have the power to sue for an injunction.

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This is really anecdotal but I've seen way more people than expected say they're voting for Brian Sims for Lt. Gov on Twitter/Instagram. I still think Davis wins but Sims could have a surprisingly good showing, especially being from Philly whereas Davis is from Western PA.

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Carrie DelRosso has kept a pretty consistent lead in the R Lt Gov race all night. Looks like she will be the winner.

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I would be totally cool with Lamb running for AG in '24. But I wonder if Larry Krasner might run against him.

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IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

People outside of PA commenting on this race just shows how little attention they pay. The comment in another thread trying to compare this race to VA-Gov was silly as well. It's abundantly clear that there is no parallel for this race because Mastriano IS crazier than even your standard Trumpist Republicans. But simultaneously, Shapiro IS running a better campaign and has demonstrated stronger electoral appeal than most standard Democrats. Pennsylvania does not adhere to trends. We do what we do.

[With you in spirit]

If Mastriano wins, will Democrats who live in PA flee the state en mass?

Yep, I definitely will!

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https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1544632011528323074

Huh, Bob Jubelirer is among this group. One of my government professors in college worked for him and sung his praises constantly. Wonder if he's on the same page as his former boss.

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I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

Shapiro is a uniquely strong candidate. He has received more votes than any other statewide candidate in PA history in any race, including POTUS. A "normal" Republican (whatever that means these days) would likely have a much better shot, but I wouldn't go as far as saying this race is Likely R if the nominee was Barletta or White or whomever.

[With you in spirit]

I am becoming increasingly convinced that we should implement a forum-wide ban on people not from PA commenting on PA races. It is clear that none of you have any idea what you're talking about.

[With you in spirit]

I am becoming increasingly convinced that we should implement a forum-wide ban on people not from PA commenting on PA races. It is clear that none of you have any idea what you're talking about.

The sheer ignorance of the 2020 stuff really gets me. I'm like, y'all want to say Heidelbaugh was a nobody but Stacy Garrity (who people like me even had no idea who she was) wasn't? Like come on now. Let's be real.

Yeah, I'm not sure how much better an AG candidate can do than the candidate for President in a state like PA, but it appears users wouldn't be impressed unless Shapiro ran 5-6 points ahead of Biden.

[With you in spirit]

I am becoming increasingly convinced that we should implement a forum-wide ban on people not from PA commenting on PA races. It is clear that none of you have any idea what you're talking about.

The sheer ignorance of the 2020 stuff really gets me. I'm like, y'all want to say Heidelbaugh was a nobody but Stacy Garrity (who people like me even had no idea who she was) wasn't? Like come on now. Let's be real.

Yeah, I'm not sure how much better an AG candidate can do than the candidate for President in a state like PA, but it appears users wouldn't be impressed unless Shapiro ran 5-6 points ahead of Biden.

I frankly wouldn’t be impressed in any way that affected my perception of this race unless it was more like 10-15. Slight variations in a single cycle tell me nothing about another higher-profile open race four years later. Shapiro is well-liked but not Casey Sr. or Charlie Baker (both incumbents).

We're talking about Pennsylvania. No candidate is ever going to run 10-15 points ahead of another statewide candidate. Tom Wolf outran Bob Casey by 2 points in 2018. Casey outran Obama by less than 2 points in 2012. Corbett outran Toomey by 3.5 points in 2010, a historic Republican wave year. Our "most electable" candidates do not run double digits ahead of other candidates.

Shapiro may not have won in 2020 if turnout for Dems wasn't as high as it was, but this idea that he "beat a nobody" is ridiculous; almost all non-incumbent candidates for row offices are "nobodies." Ask any person on the street who your incumbent AG beat in their last election, guarantee you nobody knows. And still "nobodies" like Tim DeFoor and Stacy Garrity defeated a well-known, previous statewide candidate and an incumbent, respectively.

[With you in spirit]

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1550531498830614528

Man, imagine seeing Ben Shapiro and Josh Shapiro as equals in any way other than last name.

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https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1551709231488929793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

They're really going off their rails, aren't they?

Just proves at this point that the whole "Mastriano will moderate" schtick ain't happening.

It went really well with Trump too IIRC.

[With you in spirit]

If the Republicans had nominated Barletta for Governor and McCormick for Senate, they would have likely won both races. Pretty insane that they could've flipped two crucial seats in a swing state and chose to nominate the most toxic candidates in both races.

[With you in spirit]

If the Republicans had nominated Barletta for Governor and McCormick for Senate, they would have likely won both races. Pretty insane that they could've flipped two crucial seats in a swing state and chose to nominate the most toxic candidates in both races.

Senate wouldn’t be a flip.

My bad, they would've won two crucial races in a swing state.

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/7-more-republican-leaders-endorse-100000407.html

7 Rs endorse Shapiro for GOV

Jesus, Michael Chertoff? That's not a great look. I wouldn't want his endorsement if I was Shapiro.

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1570760664318099461

PAGOP candidates and being registered to vote in New Jersey--name a better duo.

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That second clip is literally Alex Jones’ argument against abortion. He calls it eugenics and invokes Sanger all the time. Doug def is/was an Infowars listener.